RogueMacro

I have a long history of connecting dots others misunderstand. Contrarian? Yes. Real insight lives between boldness and logic. That’s Rogue Macro. I don't sell doom to hijack your adrenaline response. Predictive power is the goal. No assumed outcomes. Dominant forces shaping the world today: • Deglobalization • Demographics • Rise of populism • America’s reindustrialization Everything flows from the right macro thesis. Follow this account and: 👉 Substack: roguemacro.substack.com 👉 YouTube: @RogueMacro" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">youtube.com/@RogueMacro

@TheMindScourge People are underestimating the possibility of a revolution in Iran ending the Hormuz crisis. It will likely be fixed in several weeks and then a long term solution when the Islamic regime falls.

Hormuz is a weapon that can only be fired once No one should expect a quick resolution to the current crisis, but across the next decade, even the next 3-5 years, the choke point of Hormuz will be massively substituted for The Gulf Arab states are all very rich, with high per capita GDP - the best single measure of relative state capacity - easy access to global markets, especially financial, and have the favorable backing of the US Everyone has known about the Hormuz vulnerability for decades. The Iranians have continually hinted around closing it, but never did. Now they have, but Hormuz is a gun that cannot be reloaded. Deterrents work only up to the point of use. Once used, they have failed. The purpose of a deterrent is to *not* be used Many analysts have made this basic mistake. They think that Iran is now in a position of strength, having exercised its Hormuz option. But the opposite is true. A state is weakest after it has used its deterrent. The cost of that deterrence is now priced in. The worst having been done, the targets of the deterrent are now free to make other arrangements. Before, they were reluctant to do so because of the switching costs. Now, they have no choice; they will not allow themselves to be controlled in this way again Hormuz may never reopen. But the importance of this is a depreciating asset.

@unusual_whales Their inaction IRT Hormuz is all you need to know about their "defense" of Greenland. Non-existent.

Denmark was reportedly preparing for full-scale war with the US over Greenland in January, with military support from France, Germany, and Nordic nations, per DR

@RRMacKay1963 @Frances_Coppola Yes, those things can be identified in the process, but are not black and white. When exactly is the military over extended? How much debase is the exact tipping point? Trust in what exactly? An empire can continue for a long time with some of all of that.

@RogueMacro_ @Frances_Coppola The typical empire collapse arc is: over extend the military debase the reserve currency to pay for it lose trust in the currency lose trust in the empire The rest if just details.

Empires fall suddenly. And what follows is not a new world order, but decades, even centuries, of chaos.

🚨NEW VIDEO - MACRO CHART OVERLOAD youtu.be/6eokY0_HYUk

The Chinese Depression, or the American Miracle.

🔴JUST OUT: New video updating the situation in Iran and energy markets. Covering events you won't here anywhere else! youtu.be/FV-ONCVWWPg

During the Greenland debacle, it took Europe a week or two to come around. This time, only a few days. Do you understand what's going on here? The US is getting everything it wants. Love him or hate him, Trump and his team are running circles around world leaders.

@jonbrooks Invest accordingly.

My friends in their 30s are deciding not to have kids They’re saying two things: They don’t have the money It’s inconvenient to their lifestyle This is not good. What do we do?

🚨STRIKES IN QATAR reported to affect 17% of their capacity.

@Ajayharrysimon @NoAlphaLimits No one has or uses yuan.

@RogueMacro_ @NoAlphaLimits you can just buy oil in yuan bitch

🚨🚨🚨 ISRAEL JUST MADE THE SINGLE MOST DANGEROUS MILITARY DECISION OF THE ENTIRE WAR. AND NOBODY UNDERSTANDS WHAT THEY JUST TRIGGERED. 🚨🚨🚨 Israel and the U.S. struck South Pars — the LARGEST gas field on the planet. But here's what they either didn't know or didn't care about: South Pars is jointly managed by Iran AND Qatar. They didn't just attack Iran. They attacked the energy backbone of their OWN Gulf allies. Let that sink in. 💀 The IRGC just declared ALL major energy facilities across the entire GCC as "direct and legitimate targets" — and warned strikes are coming in the "COMING HOURS." 💀 Listed targets: Qatar's LNG complex, Saudi Aramco facilities, UAE oil terminals — EVERYTHING. 💀 Saudi Aramco has already EVACUATED workers from the SAMREF refinery in Yanbu. They're not waiting. They KNOW what's coming. 💀 Iranian hackers have ALREADY hit Aramco's digital systems — posting images and issuing threats to PARALYZE their infrastructure. 💀 Multiple EXPLOSIONS just heard in Riyadh — confirmed by Reuters, AFP, and AP. Sirens sounding in the Saudi capital. Do you understand the scale of what's happening? ⚠️ Qatar's LNG complex is the LARGEST on Earth. It supplies 30% of the world's liquefied natural gas. If Iran hits it — Europe's heating supply DISAPPEARS overnight. Not in months. OVERNIGHT. ⚠️ Saudi Aramco is the most valuable company on the PLANET — worth $1,800,000,000,000. Its refineries process 12 MILLION barrels per day. One successful strike takes 10% of the world's oil OFFLINE. ⚠️ In 2019, a SINGLE drone attack on Saudi Aramco's Abqaiq facility knocked out 5.7 million barrels per day and sent oil up 15% in ONE session. Iran now has 10x the motivation and NOTHING left to lose. They're showing you "precision strikes on Iranian targets." They're NOT showing you that those strikes just gave Iran the JUSTIFICATION to destroy every oil facility from Qatar to Saudi Arabia to the UAE. Here's the logic — follow it carefully: → You bomb a gas field that's JOINTLY OWNED with Qatar → Qatar — your own Gulf ally — publicly condemns you → Iran uses the attack as justification to target ALL Gulf energy → IRGC formally declares Gulf facilities as "legitimate targets" → Aramco starts EVACUATING refineries → Explosions hit RIYADH → You didn't weaken Iran. You gave them the excuse to burn down the ENTIRE Gulf's economy. If this was a "strategic victory," why is Aramco evacuating workers RIGHT NOW? If Iran's military is "degraded," why are 6 Gulf nations scrambling to protect their oil fields from an attack they believe is IMMINENT? Complete silence. You don't evacuate the world's most valuable company unless you KNOW what's coming. The IRGC said "coming hours." Not days. Not weeks. HOURS. And every Gulf state just went from spectator to TARGET. This is no longer a war between the U.S. and Iran. This is a war that's about to ERASE the Gulf's entire energy infrastructure — the infrastructure that powers HALF the planet. Prepare accordingly. 🚨🚨🚨 They don't want you seeing this. Follow + RT to beat the algorithm. 🚨

@CAUTIOUSMOVER @NoAlphaLimits Effectively we are. The US produces ~22 mmbpd equivalent, and uses ~20 mmbpd. Plus Venezuelan oil refined in Texas. We have to more natural gas and distillates than we can handle.

@RogueMacro_ @NoAlphaLimits We are not energy independent.

FOMC LIVE REACTION | Federal Reserve Weighs The Economy And Inflation x.com/i/broadcasts/1…

The California Governor primary is on June 2 this year. That's only 75 days. The state instituted a two person run-off for the November election back in 2012. They thought they'd be able to dominate the primary since Republicans typically have lower voter turn out then, and they could use their community organizing to make the run-off 2 dems. Funny now that two Republicans could be in the run-off.

The US has effectively de-globalized the oil market for the time being. What people need to realize that this will happen for most commodities. Then ask yourself, if over the next 2 decades that is the case, what nation is best positioned to thrive. You'll have to say the US.

An African YouTube channel conducted an independent IQ test in Lagos, Nigeria. The average was 73.4, and the median was 69.7.

Can someone tell me why #gold is crashing?

Globalization was a historical anomaly that only existed because the US Navy was willing to protect shipping across the oceans. With the US Navy no longer willing to play that role, trade is going to fracture back towards regional trade blocs.

@RadarHits Most of that time, China was a backward authoritarian sh*t hole. Break apart, be conquered, break apart again. It was the globalized order that enabled modern China. That order is now gone. China going back to its roots.

Brutal slap down 😅 "China will lose the US market" "We don't care. China has been here for 5000 years and most of the time, there was no United States"

@RadarHits Now, who's the declining old power and rising power of the Thucydides Trap?