Jayson Coomer

In case you're bored this weekend, here's this 25 minute read. I'm calling it my Dan Brown lite contribution - involving the Protestant Reformation and the Templars. With a not-all-that-surprising twist at the end. rollingalpha.com/2018/11/09/dec…

Hi @Fly_Airlink I received an email at 04:39 this morning, telling me that flight 4Z106 (scheduled to leave at 14:40 today) will be departing at 04:00. The sms arrived at 07:20. Did I miss a 4am flight, or am I leaving at 4am tomorrow, or did your comms team mean 16:00?

Honestly, the poor know how to handle their money far better than the rich. They don’t have a lot of it, so every decision has to count. Poverty is not “a failure to manage money”. Wealth is not “the result of good decisions”. It’s just the hand that you’re dealt.

It’s very hard to get anxious about any AI threats to wipe out humankind when you work in places with unreliable electricity and intermittent internet. I wish AI all the very best of luck.

An important question for my fellow South Africans. I didn’t watch the National Budget. But is there anything more Nationally Boujee than waygu beef dried wors from the Pantry in Joburg? Give that chef a ministerial portfolio, because they are taking all my money.

As a general question @FNBSA - why are remittances ONLY available through the app and not through online banking?

The most useful razors and rules I've found: 1. Bragging Razor - If someone brags about their success or happiness, assume it’s half what they claim If someone downplays their success or happiness, assume it’s double what they claim 2. High Agency Razor - If unsure who to work with, pick the person that has the best chances of breaking you out of a 3rd world prison. 3. The Early-Late Razor - If it's a talking point on Reddit, you might be early. If it's a talking point on LinkedIn, you're definitely late. 4. Luck Razor - If stuck with 2 equal options, pick the one that feels like it will produce the most luck later down the line. I used this razor to go for drinks with a stranger rather than watch Netflix. In hindsight, it was the highest ROI decision I've ever made. 5. Buffett's Law - "The value of every business is 100% subject to government interest rates" - Warren Buffett 6. The 6-Figure Razor - If someone brags about "6 figures" -- assume it's closer to $100K than $900K. 7. Parent Rule - Break down the investments your parents made in you: Time, Love, Energy, and Money. If they are still alive, aim to hit a positive ROI (or at least break even.) 8. Instagram Razor - When you see a photo of an influencer looking attractive on Instagram -- assume there are 99 worse variations of that photo you haven't seen. They just picked the best one. 9. Narcissism Razor - If worried about people's opinions, remember they are too busy worrying about other people's opinions of them. 99% of the time you're an extra in someone else's movie 10. Everyday Razor - If you go from doing a task weekly to daily, you achieve 7 years of output in 1 year. If you apply a 1% compound interest each time, you achieve 54 years of output in 1 year. 11. Bezos Razor - If unsure what action to pick, let your 90-year-old self on death bed choose it. 12. Creativity Razor - If struggling to think creatively about a subject, transform it: • Turn a thought into a written idea. • A written idea into a drawing. • A drawing into an equation. • An equation into a conversation. In the process of transforming it, you begin to spot new creative connections. 13. The Roman Empire Rule - Historians now recognize the Roman Empire fell in 476 - but it wasn't acknowledged by Roman society until many generations later. If you wait for the media to inform you, you'll either be wrong or too late. 14. Physics Razor - If it doesn't deny the law of physics, then assume it's possible. Do not confuse society's current lack of knowledge -- with this knowledge being impossible to attain. E.g. The smartphone seems impossible to someone from the 1800s -- but it was possible, they just had a lack of knowledge. 15. Skinner's Law - If procrastinating, you have 2 ways to solve it: • Make the pain of inaction > Pain of action • Make the pleasure of action > Pleasure of inaction 16. Network Razor - If you have 2 quality people that would benefit from an intro to one another, always do it. Networks don't divide as you share them, they multiply. 17. Gell-Mann Razor - Assume every media article contains a % of false information. Sandbox the article from your worldview until you've: • Seen primary sources • Spoken to 3 domain experts 18. Taleb's Surgeon - If presented with two equal candidates for a role, pick the one with the least amount of charisma. The uncharismatic one has got there despite their lack of charisma. The charismatic one has got there with the aid of their charisma.

@bertusras Hey! It was working when I checked just now. Might have been a temporary glitch! Let me know if you still have an issue with it :-)

@RollingAlpha is the website still active? I've used the Rent vs. Buy calculator on many occasions, but cannot access it any longer. Is there an alternative link perhaps?

@Escroll3 @whiskeyandmagic Legend of the Seeker?! Now there’s a throwback to some terrible TV. But it was honestly fine because Terry Goodkind had already ruined his own series with The Pillars of Creation.

@whiskeyandmagic @RollingAlpha The show is garbage. It is the showrunners fanfiction. It desecrates Robert Jordans work, and I quit watching when they absolutely ruined Tigraine in the episode 7 cold opening. Legend of the seeker had better writing and vision than this garbage.

Wheel of Time on Prime. Here's a controversial statement: It's the best fantasy series yet.

@MatthewKadish Oh, the books are my favourites. But I always have such low expectations for adaptations. And yet. Season 2.

@RollingAlpha Not a book fan, I see.

@Skinwarsu Are you sure you watched it? 😂

With a SARB interest rate announcement due this week, I’ve written a post on all the types of inflation that Central Bankers should not be worried about. Because this interest rate hike would not be inflation-targeting, but exchange-rate-managing. jaysoncoomer.com/2023/09/19/dea…

When history looks back and asks: "To be clear, it was acceptable for people to die under your watch because of... geography?"

Dear @Fly_Airlink - I think you need to relook at the tiering of your loyalty program. You ran your surveys and established that most folks want cash-back rewards. The problem is that most folks are not frequent flyers, so you have it all wrong. I am a frequent flyer. I have top tier status on multiple airline loyalty programmes. And frequent flyers don't care about cashback rewards to do even more travel - we're travelling because we have to, not because we want to. We just want it to be easier. I am in airports on Sundays and Fridays and Saturdays and Mondays and Thursdays. I am in queues to check in and queues for security and queues for immigration and I'm standing around aimlessly waiting for a bag if you forced me to check it in. I want frequent flyer status so that I can spend less time in the airport. Priority check-in, priority boarding, priority luggage. I just want to not be travelling for any longer than I need to be. Stop tiering on sectors flown while ignoring the class of travel - that just forces me to wait longer for the convenience. I'd happily travel business for business just to scale a tier for a year of less inconvenient travel. You're great as an airline, but your current reward program feels like a punishment for frequent flying. It's catering for the wrong audience. PLEASE fix it.

No banks do, it’s called fractional reserve banking. SA banks are however far better capitalised than many global banks and have robust tier one capital ratios. Don’t worry too much about an SVB type scenario playing out here, our reserve requirements are far better.

It amazes me how folks will just scaremonger blind. Our economies have developed on credit. Banks are credit institutions. They lend money. They’ll also hold your deposits for you if you want. If you don’t want to do that, go buy gold or crypto, and then shut up. JustMy2Cents

Well, this is just bad advice. I’ve definitely seen pitch decks that have desperately needed a designer. The reality is: you tell a story in a pitch deck. If you have a bad story, design won’t help. If you have a good story, design helps you communicate that story effectively.

What's tougher? a) CEO of a 50,000-employee company or b) CEO of a company from 0 to 10,000 employees? Both are demanding jobs, but the answer is (b). The CEO of a company from nothing to 10,000 people is the most complex professional challenge possible. -- CEOs who take their company from founding to 10,000+ employees are rare. But that doesn't explain why people like me are in awe of those that do it. Why? -- The CEO's job changes radically as the company grows. The job will be 7 or 8 different jobs over that period. Many stages require precisely the opposite mindset and skills of the previous step. -- Let's look at who the CEO manages at each stage of growth: 0 employees: As a founding CEO, you are a player. An individual contributor (IC) usually builds stuff. 10ish employees: As the company grows (10 people), you do more managing. You’re doing IC work and managing people. So, a player-coach. 50ish employees: The company grows again (let’s say to 40-50 people). Your CEO job changes again to manage only middle managers. 150ish employees: To grow again up to 150+, your CEO job changes to team building and culture and strategy. You’re leading VPs who manage middle managers. It's about vision and leadership now. 500ish employees: Again, at 500+, the company reaches a ceiling where suddenly SVPs/GMs get involved. Now there are four layers of reports. You need to elevate again to survive. As each layer of management gets added, your job shifts upwards and changes again and again. — So far, I’ve explained this by discussing who the CEO manages. But other things impact the CEO's job drastically, too: • From one product to multiple. • From managing generalists early on to specialists. • Investors from founder-led to institutional. • Culture changes from entrepreneurial to corporate. • Company goes from a nimble go-kart to a supertanker that takes years to alter course. And much more. — It takes incredible self-awareness, capacity to change, and ability to produce to make those changes. All while the company grows rapidly. I know -- I failed as a CEO several times to get to the 50-ish employee level. -- And that is why people speak in reverence to people who went from tiny to huge as CEO. It requires a unicorn of a person to pull it off. I stand in awe.

You've forgotten all the friends, well-wishers and distant relations. There are a whole bunch of levels that involve new circles of dependents. For example, Level 2 and a half: where you can pay your parents' medical bills and not worry about compromising their health

@baba_nyenyedzi The problem is a feedback loop (parallel premium jumps = inflation = fiscal spending increase = money printing = inflation = exchange rate weakness = parallel premium jumps = inflation = etc), and not a linear equation of money printing alone.

@RollingAlpha Controlled, mismanaged and corrupt exchange rate systems in the world are the norm and not the exception. Nothing different there

The government of Zimbabwe resorts to printing because we simply don’t have enough tax revenue when compared to our insatiable expenditure. Which in most instances is political expenditure because of the knife edge political environment. Well, Rwanda national budget is now bigger than Zimbabwe. GOZ collects US$3.5bn to US.3.8bn in revenue each year. Assuming the purportedly small deficit by treasury the entire budget is US$4bn… That’s how low we have fallen. In 1990 Zimbabwean economy was bigger than Kenya. Zimbabwe has the same amount of civil servants as Kenya. This is why Zimbabwe is hyperinflationary. Incompetence, corruption, sanctions are everywhere in the world. Hyperinflation is for a special select few.