RonMan
19.1K posts

RonMan
@RonManX
Bitcoin | Outdoors | Podcast Junkie | Travel
United States Katılım Ocak 2011
1.7K Takip Edilen2.9K Takipçiler

@stats_feed @grok give us the price by year adjusted for inflation. These things are practically free.
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🌭 The price of a Costco Hot dog every year since it was introduced:
1984: $1.50
1985: $1.50
1986: $1.50
1987: $1.50
1988: $1.50
1989: $1.50
1990: $1.50
1991: $1.50
1992: $1.50
1993: $1.50
1994: $1.50
1995: $1.50
1996: $1.50
1997: $1.50
1998: $1.50
1999: $1.50
2000: $1.50
2001: $1.50
2002: $1.50
2003: $1.50
2004: $1.50
2005: $1.50
2006: $1.50
2007: $1.50
2008: $1.50
2009: $1.50
2010: $1.50
2011: $1.50
2012: $1.50
2013: $1.50
2014: $1.50
2015: $1.50
2016: $1.50
2017: $1.50
2018: $1.50
2019: $1.50
2020: $1.50
2021: $1.50
2022: $1.50
2023: $1.50
2024: $1.50
2025: $1.50
2026: $1.50
Kalshi@Kalshi
JUST IN: 20% chance Costco raises hot dog prices next year
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Membership would have 100% been an NFT in 2021.
Polymarket Situation Room NFT perks
-Gated DC entry + NFC card option
-Private pods w/ your positions + sentiment feeds
-VIP bar, guest passes, market cocktails
-Reduced fees, early tokenization access
-Exclusive briefings, holder channels
-Evolving traits, staking credits, legacy wall plaque
-Serious alpha for traders, funds & insiders.
Tiers: Bronze → Gold.
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RonMan retweetledi

I hate how we now substitute inflation for price increase.
When you blur that line, it takes the focus off the cause and puts it on the symptom. Over time that makes people less sensitive to what’s actually happening to their purchasing power.
It just feels like “things cost more,” instead of asking why they do.
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POWELL SAYS HIGHER ENERGY PRICES WILL PUSH OVERALL INFLATION HIGHER
The Wolf Of All Streets@scottmelker
LIVE NOW: FED CHAIR POWELL SPEAKS AFTER INTEREST RATE ANNOUNCEMENT x.com/i/broadcasts/1…
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@greenytrades Do you expect the cycle will diminish as BTC moves from whales to new holders and matures as an asset?
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Bitcoin has topped and bottomed on almost the same schedule for over a decade. The numbers don't care about your feelings and the bottom isn't in.
Peak to bottom:
2013 → 2015: ~410 days
2017 → 2018: ~363 days
2021 → 2022: ~376 days
Average: ~383 days
Drawdown from ATH:
2011: -93%
2015: -85%
2018: -84%
2022: -77%
Accumulation phase before a new trend:
2015: ~15 months of sideways
2018: ~16 months of sideways
2022: similar
Right now? We're about 5 months past the October peak and only 42% down from ATH.
If history rhymes and it has every single cycle... we're not even halfway through the decline in time, and nowhere near the drawdown levels that have marked real bottoms (I do believe we don't dump as hard as previous cycles due to institutional demand).
The average bear market bottom arrives ~383 days after the peak. That puts a theoretical bottom around late 2026. As I alluded to yesterday, I think we are front running this bottom in terms of time.
The average accumulation phase lasts 12-16 months after that which I do think starts to also decrease due to the volatile dump we saw in February. But this still aligns with a real trend shift wouldn't show until 2027 at the earliest.
Most of you aren't prepared for that timeline. You're checking charts daily hoping for a V-recovery that has never happened in Bitcoin's history for MACRO BEAR MARKET BOTTOMS. The bottom isn't a price. It's a period. And we're nowhere near the end of it.

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RonMan retweetledi

@DCinvestor Only one side has been fighting for secure, auditable, lawful, and transparent elections, and it's obviously not the side you think it is.
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the nightmare scenario now, which is now more plausible than many would care to admit
is they will try to provoke enough outrage and false flags or whatever else they can do to disrupt the November elections so that they can interfere in them and control the outcome
they know they are toast and there’s no coming back from all of this, especially not on that timeframe. even if the military operations are successful and they can declare victory before them
like there is no way you rebuild MAGA at this juncture. it is complete toast. they will instead try to prosecute and destroy it now
and if they lose really badly, they get impeachment and removal
the alternative is they really don’t care and just speedrun whatever remaining objectives they can in the next 8 months and resign right after the elections
it’s a bit of a toss up right now
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RonMan retweetledi

Bitcoin is falling faster than any previous bear cycle and nobody is talking about it. Here's the data.
Every cycle, there's a moment on the monthly stochastic where the fast MA crosses below the slow MA while dropping out of the 80th percentile: the Bull Control Zone. This cross has confirmed the end of every single Bitcoin bull market. No exceptions.
It happened again in October and was a big reason I was stabled up before then. Now if we track the time from that cross to reaching the 44th percentile (where we sit right now) then we get the following:
2014: 579 days
2018: 243 days
2022: 395 days
2026: 151 days
This cycle's momentum is collapsing faster than anything we've seen in 12 years of Bitcoin data. That's why February was so violent - months of selling compressed into weeks. But faster decline doesn't mean faster recovery.
Every cycle, the bottom is followed by a re-accumulation range with months of sideways price action chop that breaks most people's patience and discipline. That range, not the bottom, is where generational positions are built.

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