@GrailArchive lol listen man. I’m sure it’s good. But it’s the most basic of f’ing things. Nothing about that other than the price.
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Rob Meder
1.5K posts
The BYD Song Pro exists to make expensive SUVs feel embarrassing. Job done
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@ThinkAppraiser Real estate developers are broke if things go wrong.
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Honest question: if you’re worth $100 million why wouldn’t you cash out $10 million as a rainy day fund?
BridgeLenderGuy@bridgelenderguy
I met a well-known real estate developer this weekend and he told me that he is worth over $100 million, I asked him how liquid he is. He told me he is two months behind on his kids tuition.
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@BoringBiz_ Griffin kills it but he never impresses me. I think he has geniuses working for him. But this whole ‘I once asked a Harvard graduate blah blah.’ So trite. It’s bullshit he never did that.
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This is the type of person you have to be to get hired at Citadel
Ken Griffin once asked a Harvard graduate with a Citadel offer letter what he would do if he had $10 million in his bank account
The young man replied that he would quit his job to travel and climb the highest peaks around the world
Ken Griffin responded by saying that Citadel was not the right fit for him
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@psychikmoksha @Ross__Hendricks Definitely. Metaverse was a bad bet but not a big deal. I think all compute will be AI compute within 10 years. That’s the transition. There will be other new shiny things. But the way things work today is ALL going to change.
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@twiggysays @Ross__Hendricks Don't understand how it's even a rebuttal. The moment zuck realized no money in metaverse, he pivoted hard and meta did a v shape trading at ath. Once this is done, big tech will find another shiny thing and people will bid them up
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Few... far too few
At some point in the next 2 - 3 years, a whole lot o' tech bagholders are gonna become painfully familiar with how depreciation works in highly capital-intensive businesses
Convexititties, CFA@convexititties
This guy misses the point. It’s not about private investments. Hyperscaler revenue from new capacity books immediately. The capex behind it gets spread over ~6 years of depreciation. While capex is growing, EPS gets flattered because the expense lags the revenue by years. When capex flatlines, revenue grows slower and depreciation keeps catching up. That’s when EPS gets pinched. Enjoy the honeymoon period.
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@LeveragedFun @convexititties Maybe. Tough to time things correctly. I think we go on a full five year tear from here. Memory stocks do not peak. The IPOs? Hard to say. Doesn’t matter. Those companies could be replaced with others.
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@twiggysays @convexititties sure, if your time horizon is 20 years i am sure Nvidia will be a great investment even from here
i just suspect we are nearing the peak of the hype cycle which will likely coincide with the IPOs of OpenAI and Anthropic + peak of memory stocks like Micron and Sandisk
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This guy misses the point. It’s not about private investments. Hyperscaler revenue from new capacity books immediately. The capex behind it gets spread over ~6 years of depreciation. While capex is growing, EPS gets flattered because the expense lags the revenue by years. When capex flatlines, revenue grows slower and depreciation keeps catching up. That’s when EPS gets pinched. Enjoy the honeymoon period.
fejau@fejau_inc
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@OmarMKhateeb Ah I’m sorry. When you said ‘turned around to get his floaties’ it sounded like she was there. Didn’t go somewhere else to get them. Definitely changes the scream or don’t scream calculus.
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@twiggysays You weren’t there and she wasn’t just standing there screaming. I just got there because I was closer.
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Was in sauna yesterday when I heard my wife screaming. I ran out and saw my son jumped into the swim spa without floaties. He was going under and I dove in.
It happened within a matter of seconds.
My son is totally fine but this shook my wife and I.
What happened was he wanted to go in. My wife told him to wait as she turned around to get his floaties. He jumped in.
She would’ve dove in but her scream got me moving so fast I got there before her. I didn’t even think about what was going on.
The rest of the day I was exhausted. My nervous system was shot.
Dads- drowning can happen within seconds. Don’t take your eyes off your kids.
And the days you have to pull off heroics just be prepared to feel wiped out for a few hours.
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@LeveragedFun @convexititties people in 20 years will say ‘why don’t I have $25m in nvidia stock’ and it will be same reason I don’t have $25m in google stock today. I was there when it all went down. I listened to the wrong talking heads. pundits. journalists.
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@twiggysays @convexititties well yeah Jensen and Andy are gonna be mega bullish, they are the barbers telling everyone how awesome haircuts are😂
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@LeveragedFun @convexititties everyone can choose who they listen to. but ‘they’re talking their book’ so discount what they say is just like the ‘metaverse’ reasoning. they are CEOs of public co’s. they are responsible professionals. roll the tape over past X years. find me their bullshit claims. their lies
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@LeveragedFun @convexititties I think people need to see that everything that happens online - everything - will touch AI. This investment cycle - we’re at the beginning of it. You see genuine - watch 20 Palantir customer presentations on youtube. They’ll tell you the AI story.
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@twiggysays @convexititties ok so what are your expectations? how is this going to play out over the next few years?
i told you what I think. i think we will hit peak AI, at least for a while, after these companies finally IPO. then we're going to have a big conversation about revenue vs. profits
you?
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@LeveragedFun @convexititties The reason I don’t have $25M in google stock today? Because I listened to endless ‘revenue vs profits’ concern that every headline screamed about when google was growing. Same with Amazon. Listened to the ‘experts’ pouring over spreadsheets going AHA! Margins down 0.5%! Gotcha!
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@LeveragedFun @convexititties LLMs do not simply = AI. But OpenAI could go away and it would not change the demand picture. Every compute resource would be used. Hell Claude would take every GPU OpenAI has spoken for right now. Yes their IPOs will be big news and armchair and pros will pore over every nugget
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@LeveragedFun @convexititties The demand for compute is not just from OpenAI. It’s from 1000s of companies.
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@twiggysays @convexititties the hyperscalers are mostly spending on cloud infrastructure which is a good bet regardless of AI. but a lot of the data center demand is fueled by the frontier labs who are not profitable. i am not sure they ever will be. i cant wait until they IPO so we can see the numbers
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@LeveragedFun @convexititties Clearly not the same. 97% of fiber build out was empty. Predicting the demand would be there. The hyperscalers have nearly $2 TRILLION in customer demand TODAY they cannot satisfy. And the demand is increasing.
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@twiggysays @convexititties the internet was a fantastic technology, totally revolutionary, and yet a lot of telcom infrastructure co's who built it out lost their asses. it took years for demand to catch up.
they were directionally correct and yet...
i predict the same will happen with this AI spending
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@OmarMKhateeb Don’t take your eyes off your kids correct. But no they don’t drown in seconds.
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@LeveragedFun @convexititties Nah. These companies are data driven. The idea that all the best executives in history with the best run finance operations are all just ‘YOLO!’ They have 1000s of customers paying them to use this compute they are buying. They know exactly what’s going on.
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@twiggysays @convexititties it's a bit of a dilemma for them. it's a new tech so they feel compelled to invest big or else they might be left behind. this group think / herd behavior does not automatically mean it will ultimately a worthwhile endeavor.
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@LeveragedFun @convexititties My point is that they a spending that money to satisfy 1000s of customers demand. not ‘build it and they will come’. They have a trillion $ in BACKLOG demand to satisfy. These companies know demand and how to measure it. They know global scale like no one else. They know.
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@twiggysays @convexititties they are spending billions of dollars in capex. when do they stop spending on capex? will it ultimately pay off (to the tune of billions in profits)?
I don't know!
I'm not sure they know either. you're assuming they do know, but I'm not sure that is the case right now
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POV: You realize a 25-year-old turned $225 million into $5.5 billion in 12 months and just told you exactly what he’s buying next.
The Assembly@InTheAssembly
A 25 year old just turned $225 million into $5.5 billion in 12 months. Here’s exactly what he bought. Leopold Aschenbrenner got fired from OpenAI in April 2024. He spent the next few months writing a 165-page thesis predicting AGI by 2027. Then he launched a fund and put his money where his thesis was. He bought zero Nvidia. Zero Microsoft. Zero Google. Zero Amazon. He bought what AI actually runs on. Bloom Energy (BE), power infrastructure for data centers. Up 1,422% in one year. Lumentum (LITE), optical components that move data between chips. Up 1,331%. Sandisk (SNDK), storage. Up 3,130%. CoreWeave (CRWV), GPU cloud infrastructure. Up 166%. Iris Energy (IREN), AI computing and data centers. Up 583%. The thesis was simple: every AI company needs energy, bandwidth, storage, and compute. Nobody was buying those. Everyone was buying the AI companies themselves. He was right. His fund now manages $6 billion. Backed by Patrick and John Collison of Stripe and former GitHub CEO Nat Friedman. I’m adding this to my watchlist. Every time he files a new 13F, we will break it down here. Turn on notifications so you don’t miss the alert, this is VERY important. Many people will wish they followed us sooner.
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