Matt (α)

In the long term MSTR will underperform BTC. There are persistent structural risks that have repeatedly caused leveraged proxies like MSTR to underperform the underlying asset (spot Bitcoin) over long periods. GBTC, mining stocks, leveraged ETFs, etc…. MSTR is great for trading but not long term investing if you want to outperform BTC.

I see your point, which is the talking point of most naysayers. What I think is ignored is that Strategy will not be accumulating Bitcoin at this rate into the future. As Bitcoin appreciates over time, Strategy’s balance sheet will get stronger and their overall cost basis will be less than most who hold that much BTC on the books. When Bitcoin bulls again, people will realize this.

I’m not even joking around here… How is the $MSTR crowd holding up? Down -83% from the top. That’s rough.

@dotkrueger Can @sophonlotrovski stop rambling? Saying absolutely nothing unique or insightful.

@marckramer @marc02200 Huge flaw in your assumption: we have no idea what the share count will be when BTC is at 1mm. Saylor keeps diluting common shareholders to pay STRC div and buy BTc when it’s not accretive. Very possible that MSTR underperforms BTC.

@marc02200 If we were in a parabolic bull and $MSTR was plummeting, maybe I’d break a sweat. If you, the general you, believe Bitcoin is going to $1M+ and Strategy will own 1M BTC for a cost basis under $200k, what’s the problem? When in doubt, zoom out.

@LizardWizardBTC All good. Great call nonetheless.

@RoyalInvesT24 haha, you're right, I have... yin yang just cause I was beaten to death when I started talking about it will revisit in August

I do wish someone took me up on this bet. I was ready to increase the bet to 250k, but I got no challengers haha

@99_loss_capital He’s not that guy. Idk what more evidence people need. Yes the opportunity is huge, but with below-average talent, execution will not occur.

$EOSE Somebody should remind Joe that he's not running a school project. "We're learning from every cycle" and "we should see efficiency improvements" aren't answers you can keep repeating forever. Every company does that. Less theory, more results. It's almost mid-2026.

@hamids @sliman12 @elonmusk At what price do you view SPCX attractive?

@sliman12 @elonmusk Does it matter? This is the absolute dumbest response possible! Instead of saying something dumb try to refute the argument. Tell me how the economy will be 10x larger in 10 years.

So @elonmusk has an insane number of insane predictions and despite being wrong like 99% of the time, he never gets better at his predictions. Here, he's predicting the US Economy grows 10x in 10 years! In order for the US economy to be 10x larger in 10 years, it would need to grow at ~26% ANNUALLY, EVERY YEAR! For the last 10 years we've been growing at about 2-4% annually. In fact, the last time the economy grew by more than 10% was in 1942! So if he thinks that $SPCX will have at least $1 Trillion in revenue by 2030, it's good to also know that he expects the US GDP to grow from $30 Trillion in 2025 to $120 Trillion in 2030. If that scenario does happen, then $1 Trillion in SpaceX revenue is reasonable for 2030. But the probability of the US GDP hitting $120 Trillion by 2030 seems extremely slim to zero, unless, of course, there's massive inflation of 20%+ EVERY YEAR FOR 10 YEARS.

@srvc76 Unfortunately, I’m increasingly convinced that the firm lacks the collective talent required for such execution.

$EOSE Deliver the fucking product with real world data. Mark Strouse (JPM) just wants line of sight & how much alpha DawnOS has at scale. There’s $24B in Pipeline to convert. I do not care anymore about roadshows. The opportunity is starting at you in the face. Go. Execute‼️

@LegalGrapes_Esq He got burned buying MSTR top. Now he made it his life mission to attack Saylor daily. He seems miserable, but does a great job living up to his name.

Reminder: this represents over 95% of the characters on X trying to tell you what to do with your money. $IREN could be bought for under $1 in 2021. It traded at ~$9 when this dipshit made this comment. The peanut gallery is *this* oblivious. Be careful about who you follow...

$AMZN $GOOGL $MSFT $META Its amazing to me how many people on X know that the CapEx is bad while the companies themselves have no clue. The level of CEO talent on X must be through the roof.

@RJCcapital @renstocks_ Hate to break it to you…No serious investor looks to you for alpha.

@renstocks_ this is insane levels of alpha im providing here for free

this is my Mag7

@StockSavvyShay She makes Cramer look like Buffett.

Cathie Wood bought $51M of $SNOW and $22M of $TSLA today.

@ryQuant @JoeCarlasare All your predictions have come true?

@JoeCarlasare “I genuinely think...” How do you think, Joe?

I genuinely think bitcoin sentiment is worse now than it was during the FTX collapse. Back then, nearly every asset was struggling, and the cause was obvious: inflation / rising rates / brutal macro backdrop. This feels different, like a growing belief that the narratives that convinced people to buy Bitcoin have broken down

@farzyness @elonmusk @AdamLowisz @SawyerMerritt @Tesla “they were wrong once on one thing, therefore everything is worthless forever”. Weak reasoning. Now, apply your logic to all the false predictions Elon has made.

@elonmusk @AdamLowisz @SawyerMerritt @Tesla There's no reason to trust the ratings from firms that had the mortgages before the financial crash of 2008 AAA rated. It's all a scam.

SpaceX has just officially received an investment grade credit rating of Baa1 from Moody's, slightly higher than @Tesla's Baa3 rating. Their reasoning: "SpaceX's Baa1 issuer rating reflects the company's exceptional franchise strength as the world's leading orbital launch provider and operator of the largest low earth orbit satellite broadband network, Starlink. The company benefits from robust and expanding recurring revenue from Starlink, which has become the primary cash flow generator and underpins improving scale, margin expansion, and diversification away from more cyclical launch revenues. Additionally, SpaceX's vertical integration across manufacturing, launch, satellite deployment, and end-customer delivery drives superior cost efficiency and operational velocity that competitors have been unable to replicate. Strategic relevance to the U.S. government, as the primary launch provider for NASA and the Department of Defense, adds demand visibility and long-cycle contract support, while the company's ability to monetize AI compute capacity through third-party arrangements provides additional revenue diversification and downside optionality. The AI segment addresses a large total addressable market across AI infrastructure, consumer and enterprise applications, and digital advertising, and represents significant long-term revenue and earnings upside as the company scales its compute infrastructure, develops its frontier models, and expands enterprise and consumer monetization channels. The company maintains conservative financial policies, alongside strong liquidity and financial flexibility, supported by substantial cash balances and continued access to both equity and debt capital markets."

@farzyness @elonmusk @AdamLowisz @SawyerMerritt @Tesla That’s like saying someone with 850 credit score will never default on any loan. Credit Ratings aren’t guarantees

I don’t get why people are impressed by a guy who is good at reading other people’s speeches. He’s a professional actor. People slobbering all over Mandami. I get that politicians always try to make sports about them and use it to their advantage so I guess you can’t blame Mandami for hogging the spotlight. But dude couldn’t name 1 player besides Brunson when asked during a debate last year. Now he’s a super fan? I think it speaks to how inauthentic he is and how dumb people are who slurp it up. That’s just me though

@LegalGrapes_Esq @saylor Most people go where the wind blows on a given day. Narrative follows price.

I am sorry if but you’re so low-T that you feel @saylor should be coddling you through your holding of $MSTR or $STRC … you’re invested in the wrong sector. Go hire a financial advisor and buy index funds. You are owed no apology for the volatility of crypto investments. You bought the ticket. Be an adult and hold through it, or call up your local Charles Schwab branch.

@TNorth @TimKotzman @PunterJeff The only group that has lost more credibility than Saylor is this cast of characters. They were wrong on the common, and they’ve been proven wrong on STRC. Really embarrassing.

Crappy Timing. "They lost $16B of collateral value in 5 days..." @PunterJeff breaks down $MSTR retiring the convertible bond.

@hamids 💯

Except, if $TSLA and $SPCX were to merge, as is expected, Elon’s incentive is to have a much higher valuation for SpaceX than for Tesla, because: 1) he has a much larger ownership of SpaceX than Tesla. So his ownership of the combined company would be much higher if SpaceX keeps going up and Tesla goes down. 2) he has super-voting shares at SpaceX (~80% voting power). So the higher % of the combined company he owns, the more of his shares that he can sell (post merger) and still hold a majority voting power by himself. Those 2 factors benefit Elon much more when SpaceX is worth way more than Tesla in a merger. SpaceX will be the acquirer, not the acquired. And you can bet that Elon will promote what is good for Elon. So don’t expect him to pump Tesla anymore.

$FIG (Figma) IPO opened at $33 Day 2, it closed at $115! Day 3, it closed at $125! ~300% return in just 3 days! Yet despite crushing EVERY quarterly report for the past year, you can buy $FIG today for just $18. For those new to the market, there is this thing called “valuation” that will eventually catch up with every company.