
Rustcity Рустcитий
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Are we overreacting? Goldman now estimating Gulf crude oil production is down 14.5MM Bbl/d, an astoundingly huge number (~1.5X the demand drop during COVID). Even with demand reduction/refinery run cuts of ~6MM Bbl/d, SPR releases of ~3.5MM Bbl/d, KSA/UAE workarounds of ~6MM Bbl/d, global inventories are still drawing by >6MM Bbl/d...~2X the size of the former "most anticipated oil supply glut in history"™️. The world will have lost over 1.1BN barrels even if the SoH opens tomorrow (ignore the supposed 20+ sea mines). Then to consider the potential for loss of productive capacity from forced shut-ins, the timeline to repair 80 damaged facilities (1/3 severe/very severe), and the refilling of SPRs (~0.3MM Bbl/d of new demand for the next 3 years or a 30% bump to baseline demand growth). Let's not forget about the twilight of US shale, the peaking of non-OPEC production, and the meagre 1.5MM Bbl/d of OPEC adjusted spare capacity. With all that said, to me a 2027 WTI strip of $72 looks mispriced, and we are buying companies that at $80WTI are trading at 17%+ FCF yields. Time will tell...




Diem (DIEM) is now live on coinbase․com and in the Coinbase app. Coinbase customers can log in to buy, sell, convert, send, receive or store these assets. coinbase.com/price

“89.5% of the Epstein list is Jewish and 0% of his female victims were Jewish”








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