Ryan Arnstein

CBS Midterm/Redistricting Update 🔴 TX: +3-5 🔴 FL: +3-5 🔴 OH: +1-3 🔴 NC: +1 🔴 TN: +1 🔴 MO: +1 — 🔵 CA: +3-5 🔵 UT: +1 Total Passed: 🔴 Republicans: +10-16 🔵 Democrats: +4-6 Pending: 🔴 LA: +1 🔴 AL: +1 🔴 SC: +1 House Forecast: 🔴 GOP: 211 🔵 Dem: 208 🟡 Tossup: 16

@OpenSourceZone @chws747 The kingmaker is not above being a redistricting casualty. Lol.

The South Carolina House of Representatives passes a new Redistricted congressional map Final Vote: 🟢 Yes: 74 🔴 No: 36 New Map: 🔴 Republicans: 7 (+1) 🔵 Democrats: 0 (-1) The new map draws out Rep. Clyburn (D-SC)

Trump scores major victory with Massie’s primary defeat in Kentucky thehill.com/homenews/campa… I have no idea how conservative Gallerin is, but I'm glad that someone like Massie, who is at a minimum anti-Israel, has been voted out of office.

Polls show Cooper with strong lead over Whatley for NC Senate seat thehill.com/homenews/state… And we had this guy as chair of the RNC when he may not even be able to win an election in North Carolina?

Russia's 1917 govt didn't want to give up, but had an inflation rate equal to 180%. That collapsed the government. In Feb of this year, BEFORE the war and blockade started, Iran had a food inflation rate of 105%! Only idiots think Iran can keep enduring pain endlessly.

TrumpRx adds over 600 generic drugs; Mark Cuban joins White House rollout thehill.com/policy/healthc… Not sure which drugs are included, but this sounds like a lot of medications. Big additions to the program.

Supreme Court declines to restore Virginia Democrats’ congressional map thehill.com/regulation/cou…

President Donald J. Trump has posted to Truth Social announcing the death of Abu-Bilal al-Minuki, the second in command of the Islamic State of the Levant (ISIS/ISIL) during an operation in the African country of Nigeria.

🤦‍♂️

Intresting….

The BILD is reporting one in 20 Russian trucks making a round trip under under these new Ukrainian drones is being destroyed *PER TRIP*⬇️

Israeli outlet Walla reported the U.S. was close to resuming strikes on Iran last week, but the decision was reportedly halted "at the last minute" to allow one final round of talks before further escalation

@OpenSourceZone @chws747 I can't believe you and Vance talked me into possibly supporting Rubio if it turns out we can't nominate DeSantis or someone more conservative. Lol.

Odds of Marco Rubio becoming the 2028 Republican nominee reach an all-time high, while primary polls still give JD Vance the edge 2028 Republican primary odds (Kalshi) 🔴 JD Vance: 34% 🔴 Marco Rubio: 30% 2028 Republican primary Poll (Rasmussen) 🔴 JD Vance: 47% 🔴 Marco Rubio: 20%

Trump call’s Iran’s proposal ‘totally unacceptable’ thehill.com/homenews/admin…

Putin says Russia-Ukraine war ‘coming to an end’ thehill.com/policy/interna… 🤔We shall see if anything comes of this. It would be a big but pleasant surprise if Russia agreed to end the war before it controls all of Donbas.

🚨 Iraq may be preparing to abandon one of the Islamic Republic’s most important proxy networks under mounting U.S. pressure. A new Iraqi initiative aims to disarm or fully integrate Iran-backed militias inside the PMF/Hashd al-Shaabi into the Iraqi state apparatus. If implemented, groups like Kata’ib Hezbollah and Asa’ib Ahl al-Haq would lose independent command structures, heavy weapons, and autonomous militia control as fighters are folded into state-controlled security forces. The plan is reportedly being finalized by outgoing PM Mohammed Shia al-Sudani, PM-designate Ali al-Zaidi, and Hadi al-Amiri, one of Iraq’s most influential pro-Iran figures. This would represent one of the biggest blows to Iran’s regional network in years. For decades, the Islamic Republic used Iraqi militias to project power across the region without direct IRGC deployment. These groups helped Iran: ⚪️ Threaten U.S. forces in Iraq and Syria ⚪️ Move weapons and logistics across the region ⚪️ Pressure Baghdad politically ⚪️ Expand IRGC influence across the Levant ⚪️ Support repression efforts during unrest inside Iran In early 2026, reports emerged that convoys of Hashd fighters crossed into Iran during protests and instability, raising fears they were being used to reinforce regime crackdowns. Weakening these militias would significantly damage Iran’s “Axis of Resistance” and reduce its ability to wage proxy warfare across the region. For the U.S., this would represent a major strategic victory. Iran-backed Iraqi militias have launched hundreds of attacks on American interests since late 2023. Neutralizing or integrating them into the Iraqi state would reduce threats to U.S. personnel and weaken Iran’s leverage inside Iraq. It would also signal that renewed U.S. “maximum pressure” is creating real structural strain on Iran’s regional network, not just symbolic economic pressure. Iran is unlikely to accept this quietly. Possible responses could include political pressure on Baghdad, militia resistance, proxy escalation in other theaters, and expanded repression inside Iran. The broader picture is that Iran’s regional network is increasingly coming under strain. Oil exports are being targeted, Hezbollah has suffered major setbacks, the Houthis remain under pressure, Syria remains unstable, and now even Iraq may begin pulling away from Iran’s orbit. If Baghdad follows through, it would strike directly at one of the regime’s most important strategic advantages: regional influence through armed non-state actors.

Unexpected victory!

Crystal Ball 2026 House Ratings After Virginia Redistricting got struck down 🔴 Republicans: 211 (+3) 🔵 Democrats: 208 (-4) 🟡 Tossup: 16 (+1)