Ryan

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Ryan

Ryan

@ryanbedwards

assoc prof of economics + dep director @devpolicy. @dartmouthecon @stanford @pmc_gov_au before that. very personal account. 🧑‍🧒‍🧒+🌻+🦋

Canberra Katılım Mayıs 2011
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Ryan
Ryan@ryanbedwards·
Some "overdue" news: my first paper on palm oil, started over a decade ago, was accepted for Christmas and is in print open access at the @JIntlEcon today. It's quite different from earlier versions, and the (excellent) review process improved it a lot. sciencedirect.com/science/articl…
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Kevin A. Bryan
Kevin A. Bryan@Afinetheorem·
Among other issues, this is a great example of "please stop writing ln(n+1)". I can't think of any good econometric reason to ever use that structure.
Dean Karlan@deankarlan

New working paper with @AmolRaswan and Chris Udry: "The Sisyphean Pursuit of Evidence for Poverty Traps." A central idea in development economics is that poverty can trap people. We went looking for the cleanest evidence. Here's what we found – and didn't.

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Stéphane Surprenant
Stéphane Surprenant@S_Surprenant·
Any economist working outside the US is used to the following situation: - Paper applies method A to US data. It looks intuitive. - You apply it to non-US data. It looks weird. And it's sensitive. There's a whole lot of theory built around intuitions built by looking at US results. That's not great.
George Selgin@GeorgeSelgin

I’m not so understanding: too many American central bankers—and economists—are guilty of extreme U.S. centrism, as if they can’t imagine that they have anything to learn from other countries’ experiences.

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Ben Golub
Ben Golub@ben_golub·
this thread is really something
Dean Karlan@deankarlan

New working paper with @AmolRaswan and Chris Udry: "The Sisyphean Pursuit of Evidence for Poverty Traps." A central idea in development economics is that poverty can trap people. We went looking for the cleanest evidence. Here's what we found – and didn't.

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Alexander Berger
Alexander Berger@albrgr·
I’m really excited about the Strep A Vaccine Fund we’re launching today. IMO the basic case here is a great recipe for impact: → A huge problem: ~1% of total annual deaths worldwide (>600k) → Super neglected: ~$14M/yr of R&D globally before this, ~50x less than malaria which has similar mortality → Newly tractable: new human challenge models and earlier diagnostics should speed the path to an approved vaccine Grateful to our partners Adam and Abigail Winkel, Good Ventures, Lucy Southworth, @ThePatchworkCLT, and a few anon donors for getting us to >$140M at launch. We’re continuing to actively fundraise and think we could effectively spend >$200M over the next few years. Our goal is to double the number of Strep A vaccine candidates in clinical trials and have at least one ready for Phase 3 trials by the end of 2030. And I’m thrilled to be betting on Katharine’s vision here! As a grad student, she co-invented the R21 malaria vaccine that’s now reaching millions of kids. I’m hoping to see hundreds of millions of future Strep A vaccine doses with her fingerprints on them.
Katharine Collins@Kat_a_Collins

Today, @coeff_giving is launching the Strep A Vaccine Fund, a multi-donor initiative to accelerate vaccine development against one of the world's most neglected infectious diseases relative to its scale. Strep A kills ~639,000 people a year. There is no vaccine. I think that can change 🧵

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Eva Vivalt
Eva Vivalt@evavivalt·
If you use any of my work in your teaching, please let me know so I can cite it in my tenure package! Thanks! (We have a pretty late deadline here.)
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Econometrica
Econometrica@ecmaEditors·
Why do richer economies have more very large firms? This paper shows that the upper tail of the firm size distribution thickens as economies grow. A model of idea search explains why, showing how growth itself can produce rising concentration. econometricsociety.org/publications/e…
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Johan Fourie
Johan Fourie@JohanFourieZA·
I've written a @claudeai skill that is useful when you’re starting a new project and want to absorb fifty papers before writing a word yourself. /tyler converts a folder of academic PDFs into a token-efficient markdown wiki for literature review. Point it at a directory of papers and it produces one lightweight .md file per paper, plus an index, so Claude Code can load an entire literature into context without burning tokens on raw PDF parsing. Named in honour of @tylercowen, the economist behind @MargRev and a famously voracious reader. Available from --> johanfourie.com/econtools.html
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Gabriel
Gabriel@gbrl_dick·
i like startups and technology and generally think the CGT changes are net bad but adding a carve-out for ‘tech startups’ is deeply unprincipled and completely unjustifiable. reflects badly on everyone involved.
Jason Falinski@JasonGFalinski

There are many questions that arise: like if it doesn't work for tech, why does it work for hairdressers or plumbers? Why are we ignoring the chain of causal events: Spender proposes changes, meets with Scott Farquar & other donors, then demands carve out just for them?

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David Neumark
David Neumark@NeumarkEcon·
I think this growing tendency of good journals to consider replications of important papers is a great development.
Jörg Ankel-Peters@jrgptrs

New @I4Replication DP: We replicated the seminal Lipsomb et al. paper on electrification in Brazil - and found consequential coding errors. Turns out the paper is based on a fragile IV. After many years, the replication is forthcoming in AEJ:Applied. econstor.eu/bitstream/1041…

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Ryan Briggs
Ryan Briggs@ryancbriggs·
Hello again log(x+c)
Dean Karlan@deankarlan

Issue #1: The S-curve depends critically on the log transformation. BBBGH use log(x/1000+1); levels (x), log(x+1), and log(x/100+1) give qualitatively different pictures. The divisor isn't innocuous.

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Dean Karlan
Dean Karlan@deankarlan·
Issue #2 (and the bigger one) is geography. The measure of household wealth combines (a) what each family owned before, plus (b) the median cow price in their local BRAC branch. Cow prices vary a lot across branches.
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Ryan
Ryan@ryanbedwards·
Log transformations strike again
Dean Karlan@deankarlan

Issue #1: The S-curve depends critically on the log transformation. BBBGH use log(x/1000+1); levels (x), log(x+1), and log(x/100+1) give qualitatively different pictures. The divisor isn't innocuous.

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Dean Karlan
Dean Karlan@deankarlan·
New working paper with @AmolRaswan and Chris Udry: "The Sisyphean Pursuit of Evidence for Poverty Traps." A central idea in development economics is that poverty can trap people. We went looking for the cleanest evidence. Here's what we found – and didn't.
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Ryan
Ryan@ryanbedwards·
@ryancbriggs It has the best footnote in a paper yet
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@ThePatchworkCLT @claudeai @tylercowen @MargRev @arpitrage @jt_kerwin @AmolRaswan @ryancbriggs