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How I use Option Open Interest and Volume to find out what big players are predicting. A 🧵👇
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RyanLee 🕯️🦇🔊
2.7K posts
RyanLee 🕯️🦇🔊
@RyanLeeCrypto
CKSG #4 | prev: @laevitas1 | Run it back turbo.
Singapore Katılım Nisan 2018
3.6K Takip Edilen1.5K Takipçiler
OTC Price for @variational_io Points.
A total of 1,000 variational points have been sold at $7 per point,
and a total of 6,153 variational points have been sold at $6.50 per point.
You can see the transactions in the image below.
Looking at these OTC prices, it seems sellers are quite bearish on variational points, as farmers' expectations are around $20 or more per point.
What do you think?
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@RyanLeeCrypto night and day imo between variational and lighter, qualitatively two very different platforms
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read this
then read it again
then realise that variational is in a class of its own
and that we're going so much higher
gvar
Variational@variational_io
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和Quant Alex @StochAlex07 讨论： SABR隐含波动率近似公式中z/chi(z)项和Bergomi Guyon expansion的联系。
Chat Discussion (Green bubbles = Jeff, White bubbles = Quant Alex)
Jeff told Alex that he had an AI perform a second-order Taylor expansion of the z/chi(z) term in the SABR approximation formula near log-moneyness k=0. He was surprised that the curvature coefficients matched perfectly with the S, C, Rho, and Nu parameters in Bergomi (2016), Chapter 9. He noted that the Bergomi-Guyon expansion is a very general framework applicable to many stochastic volatility models.
Quant Alex confirmed this and mentioned Bergomi provided examples for other models. He added that GreeksLive (the SABR model Greeks analytical system) now supports two parameterizations, including Bergomi’s.
Jeff asked if it’s possible to present results using the Bergomi expansion form.
Quant Alex replied yes — users can select the Bergomi form and compute skew and smile Greeks by differentiating with respect to Bergomi’s S (skew) and C (curvature). He confirmed that smile Greeks are strike-dependent.
Jeff said he understood and would study it further.
Value in GreeksLive SABR Analytical System
Enables switching between SABR and Bergomi parameterizations, plus clean analytical skew & smile Greeks via derivatives w.r.t. S and C.
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Some day there will be a DeFi hack so large that even the collective will of all OGs combined will not be able to cover it and it collapses DeFi for everyone.
Too much complacency and too much unattended permissionless surfaces.
DEGEN NEWS@DegenerateNews
NEW: @Scallop_io SAYS "WE HAVE IDENTIFIED AN EXPLOIT AFFECTING A SIDE CONTRACT RELATED TO SCALLOP’S SSUI SPOOL REWARDS POOL, RESULTING IN A LOSS OF APPROXIMATELY 150K SUI... THE AFFECTED CONTRACT HAS BEEN FROZEN" - "SCALLOP WILL FULLY COVER 100% OF THE LOSS"
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@0xpostrich How big is the account just curious for data point
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My Variational Points:
Slightly higher points WoW. Stats below, not including any ref points:
- 83 points
- $310k+ volume
- OI $635k
- OI/Vol 2.05
= 1 point per $3.73k volume
Last week I earned 1 point per $3.16k volume. Vari side was profitable again.
What I did this week
- Avg hold time 13d
- Volume: BTC, HYPE
- OI: SOL, HYPE, ETH, BTC
- 4 trades
Interestingly, on the $2k challenge account I decided to test and push volume without caring about hold time. That account outperformed on points week over week, primarily pushing volume through BTC as well.
As mentioned last week, I feel like point system may have changed slightly. Need to run volume + OI combo again.
Value your points blumerce.xyz/airdrops
post rich@0xpostrich
My Variational Points: Drop in points, likely due lower volume. Stats below, not including any ref points: - 79 points - $250k+ volume - OI $620k - OI/Vol 2.48 = 1 point per $3.16k volume Last week I earned 1 point per $4.83k volume. Delta-neutral, vari side was profitable. What I did this week - Avg hold time 12d - Volume: BTC - OI: SOL, HYPE, ETH, BTC - 3 trades Perhaps volume + OI combo is needed, too longer hold time, or are large caps being punished again. Value your points blumerce.xyz/airdrops
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RyanLee 🕯️🦇🔊 retweetledi
You mean...blockchains governance had this special powers all along but fell asleep during all of those previous hacks?
Arbitrum@arbitrum
The Arbitrum Security Council has taken emergency action to freeze the 30,766 ETH being held in the address on Arbitrum One that is connected to the KelpDAO exploit. The Security Council acted with input from law enforcement as to the exploiter’s identity, and, at all times, weighed its commitment to the security and integrity of the Arbitrum community without impacting any Arbitrum users or applications. After significant technical diligence and deliberation, the Security Council identified and executed a technical approach to move funds to safety without affecting any other chain state or Arbitrum users. As of April 20 11:26pm ET the funds have been successfully transferred to an intermediary frozen wallet. They are no longer accessible to the address that originally held the funds, and can only be moved by further action by Arbitrum governance, which will be coordinated with relevant parties.
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RyanLee 🕯️🦇🔊 retweetledi
RyanLee 🕯️🦇🔊 retweetledi
DeFi today is basically CeFi except instead of trusting a board of old men that fear jail and are regulated and insured to the tits you trust some risk-seeking 20-30 year olds with a multisig and a prayer.
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UPDATE ➖️ @variational_io refunded me the loss
I am surprised that they did, usually they don't but I guess the evidence was way to incriminating...I also checked binance and price was the same
Also I am surprised how many of you had this issue and stopped trading because of that ...
Var should really fix the Trigger engine. 5% is way, way off
I will keep trading here but will stick to majors lmao
Absolut05.hl 🕯@Absoluto92
The beauty of trading on @variational_io platform 🤡🤡 You set a Stop Loss on $BASED at Quote Price of 0.1995 ...it gets triggered but Price was 5% away from my SL And it was also Filled at 6% lower price than my SL at 0.188 This is how Variational is earning...by tricking you with 0$ fees but scamming you spread and quoting prices than never existed This is not the first time it happened to me and for sure not the last! If I open a ticket in their discord they will come with a bul** that chart price has nothing to do with Oracle Price
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@isvaderthanh Great thread Thomas. Following along. Are you doing on two exchanges, one being lighter?
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day 1 of my algo trading deep dive 🧵
I started with the 2 most important market making papers ever written and let me break them down like you're 5
imagine you run a lemonade stand 🍋
you buy lemons for $1, sell for $2
you profit from the gap not from guessing where prices go
that's market making
but there's a catch nobody talks about 👇
Thomas.lit 🕯️@isvaderthanh
I made 6 figures at 20 from @Lighter_xyz airdrop. Then lost about half of it. So I took a break. No trading. No charts. Just stepping away to rethink everything. Now I’m coming back but differently. Instead of trying to predict the market, I’m starting a deep dive into algo trading, specifically Market Making. Not as a trader. Not as a signal seller. But as a builder trying to understand how markets actually work. Over the next weeks, I’ll be: • Reading real MM / microstructure papers • Breaking them down into simple insights • Testing ideas with actual bots • Sharing what works (and what doesn’t) Because one thing became very clear: The edge isn’t intelligence. It’s: • execution • inventory control • latency • and structure Which also means: Your exchange is not just a tool it’s part of your strategy. That’s one of the reasons I’m experimenting with Lighter again. If you want to learn algo trading from scratch follow along.
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The @variational_io trading competition is heating up and getting more competitive by the day.
Funny thing is we arre not even optimizing for the competition, I have been on a break for a while
And we are just executing our core strategy and enjoying the platform for trades yet still holding #1 by PnL.
Current stats:
$1.3B+ total volume → Rank #3
59K+ Points → Rank #2
$250K+ PnL on the ongoing competition → Rank #1
Most traded: $BTC, $ETH, $BNB, $HYPE, $SOL
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Interesting parallels between @variational_io, @HyperliquidX, and @Lighter_xyz.
During Hyperliquid’s points program, 18k-22k wallets were earning points weekly on average. Variational has been consistently doing 22k-25k weekly for 2 months straight.
Lighter's point price on OTC was $5-10 in July 25, and by fall bids went up to $100 per point. Right now, Variational's OTC pricing looks similar to where Lighter was back in July. So are we heading toward $50-100 per point by summer-fall? I doubt it'll reach $100, but $50 would be great for me.
Let's be objective - right now the whole market mood is driven by Trump. Once macro stabilizes, risk appetite comes back and projects get repriced higher. In a bear market, you think defensively. In a bull, you think optimistically. That's just how it works.
While many protocols are shutting down, the strongest survive. That's what happened with Hyperliquid, and Lighter is still holding strong adter TGE. Meanwhile, most projects complain about lack of users, but Variational is consistently distributing points to 22k-25k wallets weekly - clear sign of real demand for trading.
From my own experience using Variational organically:
- Shorted $ETHFI on March 19 after Upbit listing announcement
- Shorted $PHA on March 20 after Bithumb listing
- Shorted $STO on April 2 after market manipulation
When a platform rewards organic trading and distributes solid points for it - instead of just incentivizing wash volume - it feels like a no-brainer to use it.
If you want a 15% points boost, you can use my code omni.variational.io/?ref=OMNIMUAR
Variational@variational_io
For week 16 of the Omni points program, 150,000 points were distributed across 24,106 accounts.
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@onchainmonk 👏🏻 👏🏻 👏🏻 The monk strategy we know, but this is totally different pairing. How do you decide which pair, and which direction?
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Platform: Variational
Strategy: Hype/Sol pair trade
Trade: Long HYPE / Short Sol
Size: 3.5k each
PNL : $50
Duration: 1 hour
Welcome to money printer strategies
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@linenmito @variational_io You have more pts than most people’s equity on Vari 😂
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Week 13 on @variational_io Points Distribution
Still No1 on the Points leaderboard, with 52,485 points.
Current Stats:
- 52K+ total points
- Rank #1 on the points leaderboard with 52,485 pts
- Rank #1 in loss refunds with $191K refunded
- Traded: $BTC, $HYPE, $SOL, $ETH & $BNB
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Edge case fr…but the user still lost $49.4M in a single swap. Liquidity is definitely not there on open-interface DeFi dapps. Not for beginners !
Stani@StaniKulechov
Earlier today, a user attempted to buy AAVE using $50M USDT through the Aave interface. Given the unusually large size of the single order, the Aave interface, like most trading interfaces, warned the user about extraordinary slippage and required confirmation via a checkbox. The user confirmed the warning on their mobile device and proceeded with the swap, accepting the high slippage, which ultimately resulted in receiving only 324 AAVE in return. The transaction could not be moved forward without the user explicitly accepting the risk through the confirmation checkbox. The CoW Swap routers functioned as intended, and the integration followed standard industry practices. However, while the user was able to proceed with the swap, the final outcome was clearly far from optimal. Events like this do occur in DeFi, but the scale of this transaction was significantly larger than what is typically seen in the space. We sympathize with the user and will try to make a contact with the user and we will return $600K in fees collected from the transaction. The key takeaway is that while DeFi should remain open and permissionless, allowing users to perform transactions freely, there are additional guardrails the industry can build to better protect users. Our team will be investigating ways to improve these safeguards going forward.
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