Ryan Mooney

@CouldBeMistaken @AssetTraveller @trend_bullish SOIL.TO and SGY.TO more focused on driving FCF yield for B/S repayment and dividends buybacks, whereas ATH.TO and HWX.TO also highly focused on organic growth and frontier exploration drilling.

@RyanRMooney @AssetTraveller @trend_bullish I wasn’t suggesting Fcf is a way to compare growth, just that the valuation will be best compared to companies with similar organic trajectory. I didn’t appreciate their growth assets as both SGY and SOIL have guided a slight decline YoY

FCF % at Various WTI Prices Relative to EV For a Couple Names. Reserves/costs may not be equal but above $70, $$$ prints. $OBE $ATH $HWX

@CouldBeMistaken @AssetTraveller @trend_bullish Why use FCF yield as a means to judge the best growth play? Metric is driven off ability to provide a return of capital to shareholders, a metric well suited to the business model of SOIL, SGY, OBE, etc. But yes, SOIL has a ton of OHML opportunities in SE Sask and SGY has Sparky.

@RyanRMooney @AssetTraveller @trend_bullish Do SOIL and SGY have growth plays to compare against Clearwater and Belly River?

@KramerKarma1 @AssetTraveller @trend_bullish My estimates are with current strip as of Friday, April 3 after market close.

@RyanRMooney @AssetTraveller @trend_bullish What WTI is that forcast? I think both names have someone "extra bullish" vs a SU / CVE / CNQ buyer. Soil was a main holding of mine in the past and they have a good runway here. I think hedge and tax pools will matter more but if this is LT hedges dropping off soil helps 27'

@KramerKarma1 @AssetTraveller @trend_bullish Sure, but point still stands on 26E | 27E DAFCF Yield: $SOIL.TO (19% | 21%) & SGY.TO (24% | 20%) both greater than $OBE.TO (18% | 15%).

@RyanRMooney @AssetTraveller @trend_bullish OBE has bought back 21.3 million shares between NCIB 17m and forward contracts 4.3m shares since 2023 and removed 400m aro 200m debt. 2020 was 23,000bbl/d vs 2026 29,200mid guide. I think OBE has meaningful per share growth in all metrics. Soil is 50% hedged & taxable also.

@energyrealist Notably all of the “cheap” stocks you bought would screen higher end on ARO liabilities, guess the market doesn’t care about that anymore!

Another $COM-er with the most complete EV/boepd junior-intermediates overview of Canadian O&G producers I've seen. Many of these are <50% liquids FYI. Took positions in Late 25'/Jan 26' in $BNE.TO $JOY.TO $IPO.TO and $OBE.TO which are all still cheap (<40,338) and >60% liquids.

@rockcreekfreak Fair, thanks for compiling the analysis.

@RyanRMooney It’s tough this year with the dramatic rise in crude. I don’t have models for all the names and don’t have terminal for forward estimate consensus. Just have to leave something to the imagination I guess.

Canadian E&P EV/boepd

@PSworldwide13 $CEC.V - look into it, tiny but only possible 10x I see without higher oil prices

Any 10 baggers left in Canadian o&g? Maybe but nothing obvious like tve or Ath for a couple of years ago

@RealPeterLinder They receive US$3.75 for their gas, that’s superior to the C$2.00/mcf that $SDE.TO receives, plus $CDR.TO will nearly double their production this year to 20,000boe/d (from 12,000boe/d) plus add $1 MM/month in FCF post bringing on their Kazakh LNG in Q4/26E.

Full disclosure: I took profits on my $CDR today. My mistake, I didn’t realize that they receive a very low price for their gas and they are increasingly cash taxable, leading to low netback prices. Still, their proposed modular LNG projects may alone be worth $5 in a few years.

@ShaleTier7 Fair, in my view it’s all about dynamically balancing quality vs value - ie. there is a time when I’d rather own lower quality at a discounted price than high quality at a fair price, especially as $SOIL.TO had the staying power with low covenant debentures & undrawn bankline.

I am not disagreeing, and that's part of my point. The factors you mentioned certainly have contributed to YTD performance, but not all of it. Some of the leverage going down is a benefit to the multiple/NAV risk factor, but that hasn't driven a double in the stock. I am making the point that it's very important to take a rational stock of the factors that have contributed to price performance in times like this, where crude rips higher.

It's important to know when you own beta that is doing beta things, and when you own quality that has re-rated. Never, ever, EVER mistake beta doing beta things, as quality that has re-rated, this is how you give up gains in a big way.

CanAsia $CEC.V finally got a bid yday, up +50%. Last year Q4 results out mid-March so could see an ops update soon? Recall Thailand govt announcement was “expected in January 2026” and Sawn lake asset dispo process was to continue “into YE25.” Hopefully an eventful Q upcoming. 🤞

@ThiagoAvila I think AIMCO is the only significant shareholder, and they would need to disclose. So don’t think it was them, don’t believe there was one seller in the market.

@RyanRMooney I am not sure but they basically were hitting the bid and pegging the stock to a 90 cent vwap for months.to the tune of 10M+ shares in 250K+ size blocks. There are only a few options. Also there was a warrant exercise recently.

@ShaleTier7 Or Highwood $HAM.V - curious for your view on their Belly River play?

$LCX probably the worst deal to hit the tape in a few years at first pass. $47mm for 97 bbls/d through Mahikan then $30mm of equity to drill the asset. So effectively pro forma they are ~110mm shares out and $13mm cash to drill with. So $170mm mkt cap with ~1,800boe/d of production. My god that's horrendous. The Mahikan wells drilled on their acquired lands and the wells offsetting are hilariously bad. Like laughably awful. I hope they have some grand thesis for the asset. I haven't put a ton of time looking into it just first pass. Their location count for the acquisition assumes total blanket deposition across the entire package and all 4 pay zones (spoiler: IT'S NOT), even if they drill 200bbl/d wells at $2mm a piece that's a 3,000boe/d company trading at ~$60,000boe/d. Why not just buy Lotus Creek at that point. Absolutely uphill battle for these guys. Lots of respect for the team here but this will be a tough one to grow into.

Will be interesting in next few months as catalysts play out on $BUFF.V (EV: $27 MM): drilling results, resource report, and PEA by April, then bank debt and a small equity injection mid-year provides financing to first commercial prod by YE26 (~$15 MM/yr in steady-state NOI)!

$BUFF.V ($20 MM EV, $5 MM cash) confirms multi-member potash deposit on Sask Disley project. Tons of fully-funded “catalysts” upcoming, all before mid-2026: seismic, assays, NI 43-101 resource report, and a PEA. Time for lift off! 🚀 finance.yahoo.com/news/buffalo-p…

@myabradshaw78 No way $CVE.TO is the top revenue generating oil company (where is $CNQ.TO, $SU.TO, etc.?), so this list is suspect, but I get the point and stand with it.

Look who the #1 Top Revenue Companies in Canada for 2025/2026

@newoilmoney Makes sense. Good luck! 🤞

@RyanRMooney Took a nice gain on some $ltc.v and started buying some today gonna move fast if oil rises,but the lack of liquidity makes me not want to big of a position

Following up on this operational update, Highwood $HAM.V first well from the recent program makes its debut on ATB’s Top Well List for December producing >1,400 bbl/d. Will be interesting to see how the second well performs when it qualifies for the list next month.