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The boy has me do one of these daily now and it's his favorite thing to colour. Dollar store notepad and pen...cheap & relaxing
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KramerKarma
29.7K posts
KramerKarma
@KramerKarma1
Husband & father of 3, oil investor turned precious metal bull, short $CAD, Long God. typos are my identifier Au/tism
Canada Katılım Kasım 2020
460 Takip Edilen3.8K Takipçiler
@RyanRMooney @AssetTraveller @trend_bullish What WTI is that forcast? I think both names have someone "extra bullish" vs a SU / CVE / CNQ buyer. Soil was a main holding of mine in the past and they have a good runway here. I think hedge and tax pools will matter more but if this is LT hedges dropping off soil helps 27'
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@KramerKarma1 @AssetTraveller @trend_bullish Sure, but point still stands on 26E | 27E DAFCF Yield: $SOIL.TO (19% | 21%) & SGY.TO (24% | 20%) both greater than $OBE.TO (18% | 15%).
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$OBE vs. $SOIL
Hedges & tax pools matter.
Obe 2.2B tax pools worth $4/share.
Soil is out or low as they hunted tax pool acquisitions.
OBE serial self acquired.
SOIL started after carbo-loading (garbo loading ~I'll admit now well timed) but still is meaningfully behind vs OBE .
Adam⛰️@AssetTraveller
FCF % at Various WTI Prices Relative to EV For a Couple Names. Reserves/costs may not be equal but above $70, $$$ prints. $OBE $ATH $HWX
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@RyanRMooney @AssetTraveller @trend_bullish OBE has bought back 21.3 million shares between NCIB 17m and forward contracts 4.3m shares since 2023 and removed 400m aro 200m debt. 2020 was 23,000bbl/d vs 2026 29,200mid guide. I think OBE has meaningful per share growth in all metrics.
Soil is 50% hedged & taxable also.
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@AssetTraveller @trend_bullish Should compare to $SGY.TO and $SOIL.TO, likely $OBE.TO best most relevant comparables. Suspect they would look worse as $HWX.TO and $ATH.TO provide a meaningful return of capital ie. buyback / dividend while also acting as growthcos.
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@RazorOil @neil_ndbress @GrantCardone "Holding Venezuela"
Didn't realize military reach squzzed oil out of the ground is this new earth glove technology replacing fracing? Any patents on it?
GIF
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@GrantCardone That you bro telling us how oil should be sub $50 before our stocks went up 50% ??? 🫣🪒
Grant Cardone@GrantCardone
US Oil prices should be sub $50 a barrel by Monday opening. Venezuela holds the LARGEST oil reserves in the world, at 300+ billion barrels. The US now controls the largest oil reserve in the world.
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Trump will announce tomorrow, "We have a deal."
Bookmark it.
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@SteveWps Might be how your setting them up? I think I swapped 7 last year? On 3 yr old set (up 365 days/yr). Mine point out not up if it matters. I assume vertical ones have the pins rot out as they sit full of water after every melt & rain?. Pointing down might be a boss move lol.
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I'm finally getting around to doing the work,
Obviously I've worked a lot of overtime this year so don't blast me but I'm finally packing up my Christmas lights.
I took them down but they've been just hanging in the garage so now I'm organizing,
I'm curious though, how can a company not make bulbs that last over a year? This is the bin I'm throwing in the garbage that doesn't work
If you don't believe me I'll show you my other seven or eight bins that do work but a good 25% just die every year
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@rockcreekfreak @RazorOil What stands out to me:
I had alot of SOIL TNZ and LCX and didn't make thoes returns.
Takeaway ~leave it to Kramer to botch a good thing. & the market stayed irrational longer than I stayed solvent/convicted/interested.
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YTD north american energy equity performances (ie since december 30 2025)
-dont care about midstream
-did not add back dividends
what stands out to you??
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Purchased some Facebook high tech glasses so I can watch hyperliquid CL1 oil price live all Easter weekend and monitor from anywhere.
Bluetooth locked in for constant communication with @oilmoneyAB
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@Merlice1 I don't have much tax as I have a lot of credits /yr . So I'll let others answer. I did sell tnz this year after a massive gain, and it has not returned to me, lol. But I just get long cheap stuff at max pain 24/7 and it works out with alot of stories.
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@KramerKarma1 Oh wise ones do you plan on selling your energy stocks when oil rallies to $150 and paying cap gains taxes then re entering at lower prices because you love your energy picks?
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🤣 🤣 🤣 I love to see the celebrations! Congratulations, oil longs! (I am a self admitted chasing sucker but I've had energy as the main part of my port and/or realized gains every year since 2018, so I'll pretend to fit in now)
TNZ is my biggest realized gain 2026.
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@ 80wti 225M FFO -> 390M
$3.35 /per share -> $5.82ps
FCF 7M -> 142M
That's +18wti
100wti is essentially 2x
Aka: 450M FFO & $7.30ps
280m fcf ... based on this table.
16.5 - 33% fcf at $12.80
KramerKarma@KramerKarma1
$OBE added heavily today. This is crazy torque after buying 21.49m shares of the 87m peak. At $100 oil (I know it never stays) That's $5.50/share *MORE* ffo. Dyodd I like it. Added today. Even 1 q is +$1.00 ffo it's meaningful.
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@KramerKarma1 Have you ever looked into $AXL.V? Cheap producer in Colombia.
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$OBE added heavily today.
This is crazy torque after buying 21.49m shares of the 87m peak.
At $100 oil (I know it never stays)
That's $5.50/share *MORE* ffo.
Dyodd I like it. Added today. Even 1 q is +$1.00 ffo it's meaningful.
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@KramerKarma1 So whats the 12 month fcf yield at these prices going forward?
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@marketsgonewild Had to grab some, probably lost on the rotation so far. 🤷
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Took opp to add to Cabral and MTL. Both have major catalyst in Q4.
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Steppe Gold Ltd $STGO.TO
Mongolia 🇲🇳 (Russian fuel)
$340million cad mcap
Results below in $ USD.
Steppe Gold | TSX: STGO@SteppeGold
Steppe Gold released its audited full-year 2025 results. The Company delivered solid operational and financial performance, strengthening its financial position, with strong contributions from BGC operations. Learn more here: steppegold.com/18824/ $STGO #STGO
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@AndurandPierre @toiletkingcap Sounds like a time for leverage!
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Dec Brent at $79/bl… down $5 today. $40 under the expiry of May contract. This is 7 months forward. Up $10 only since the start of the war. We will lose at least 1 billion bls of inventories due to that war. It could be a lot more if it lasts longer than expected. Incredible how complacent this market is. And this happens after the strongest Brent expiry ever ($15/bl).
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