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This week, @novogratz and I are getting into everything: the Iran ceasefire that isn't really a ceasefire, Alex Karp's unfiltered indictment of the entire AI business model, and why we think Trump Accounts might be the single best policy idea to come out of this administration. Plus, we're discussing whether we think a California billionaire wealth tax is a good idea. This and much more on this week's episode of All Things Markets (@AllThingsMkts) (@SALTConference) Watch/Listen on X, YouTube, and Spotify. Timestamps 0:00 Mooch and Novo are back! 0:52 What is going on in the markets? 4:02 Alex Karp's indictment of the AI business model 6:12 AI regulation coming: James Talarico, data centers, sharing AI upside with society 7:18 Is AI more like the cloud or something more dangerous? 10:05 California's billionaire wealth tax debate 15:04 Novogratz at the White House to launch Trump accounts 17:21 Trump accounts deep dive: "The best thing they've done" 20:32 Bullish or Bearish Begins (California’s Wealth Tax passes in November, Iran peace deal goes back into effect by the end of Summer, France wins the World Cup, Grok becomes an actual competitor to Claude and ChatGPT, AI models move away from selling tokens for a service, SpaceXAI trades below its IPO price in 3 months) 27:09 What made you smile this week?

AI + Financial Services = @krakenfx the app will have a fundamentally new UX and engine driven by AI Trading for all asset classes - crypto, equities, derivatives cnbc.com/2026/07/10/kra…

Spent my morning reading this recent speech from @SecScottBessent. It lays out a new and defining vision for America's role in the economy for the next 100 years. @elerianm calls it a "remarkably important speech." Bessent organizes his vision around five principles. Principle 3 is, "America will write the rules of the next economy." He gives one example of what this means: "Digital assets, stablecoins, tokenization, and new payment systems will help to shape the future of money. The United States should not consign itself to the sidelines while that future is built elsewhere." If you've wondered how committed Washington is to making crypto succeed in the US, that tells you something.

Proud of the @krakenfx contribution to this historic program and a pleasure to join the group at the White House for the announcement today. Kraken will contribute to accounts for all children born in Wyoming in 2026. x.com/WhiteHouse/sta…

Plenty of time for the snow to melt before mid-August.

Crypto is a hyper volatile asset and some macro headwinds are weighing on Bitcoin and ETH $BTC $ETH - headwinds: markets see Fed hike, Clarity Act purgatory, AI 🤖 FOMO, and private credit hurting flows - tailwinds in place: tokenization a megatrend, crypto downstream of AI 🤖, money is becoming digital / software and sentiment so bad (peak pain?) Great speaking with @Scaramucci on this

Novogratz: Bitcoin is in crisis (and it's not just macro headwinds). "This is a MicroStrategy-led breakdown in confidence around that complex, which is creating a crisis of confidence in Bitcoin." On top of that, Scott Bessent came out as a strong dollar guy - and "strong dollar is weak Bitcoin." Put it all together and Bitcoin has been in "a world of hurt." FT @Scaramucci @Novogratz @AllThingsMkts @SkyBridge.

Crypto sentiment is at its worst level since the FTX collapse; the RSI is at an all-time low, Google searches are down, and the fear and greed index is screaming danger, so I sat down with my friend Tom Lee (@fundstrat), Fundstrat's (@FundstratCap) chief strategist and Bitmain's CEO, to get his honest take on where Bitcoin, Ethereum, and the entire crypto market go from here. If you're sitting on unrealized losses right now and wondering whether to hold or fold, this is the conversation you need to hear. Watch/Listen on X, YouTube, and Spotify. Timestamps 0:00 Tom Lee Introduction 1:12 Is capital being sucked out of crypto into AI? 3:05 Is Bitcoin in a 4-year cycle? 6:58 Tom Lee on Ethereum: "Price is lagging fundamentals." 8:55 Tom Lee: "AI agents might become wealthier than us." 9:46 Is Tom Lee worried about Quantum resistance in Bitcoin? 11:22 Anthony: "Michael Saylor has become the Bitcoin narrative." 14:35 Anthony's Bitmine bull vs bear case 18:21 Post-FTX conviction: Bitcoin went from $15K to $126K, what does that teach you? 21:47 Tom Lee: These are dark days, but July is a new month

Mike Novogratz (@novogratz) is sounding the alarm this week. If the ultra-wealthy don't figure out a way to share the gains from AI, the pitchforks are coming, and history tells us exactly what that looks like. We're breaking down the widening wealth gap, Alan Greenspan's lasting legacy and what it means for the future of the Fed, Bitcoin's make-or-break moment at $60K, and whether the AI trade has finally hit its blowoff top, all in this week's episode of All Things Markets (@AllThingsMkts). Watch on X, YouTube, and Spotify. Timestamps 0:00 Mooch and Novo are back! 1:06 WTF is going on with Bitcoin? 3:30 Has the AI trade hit a blowoff top? 5:24 The political realignment against AI and income inequality 9:13 The end of the Alan Greenspan era 15:44 The US wealth divide has never been bigger 20:40 The political backlash to AI is becoming a market risk 26:12 Bullish or Bearish 32:23 What made you smile this week?

1/ Congress is putting the pieces of digital asset policy in place: GENIUS (stablecoins). Clarity (market structure). And now: tax clarity. Without it, American stakers and miners are stuck with rules that don't fit the tech. That's why Rep. Horsford's amendment misses the mark.

xAI buying Cursor makes Elon a legit frontier model competitor to Anthropic and OpenAI overnight. If Tesla and SpaceX merge by end of year, you get a $4T company with robotics, solar, self-driving, and AI under one roof. Novogratz: "Shorting Elon Musk is a fools errand. There has never been a company in the history of companies with more key man risk." If something happened to Elon, that company loses 75% of its value. No other company on Earth you could say that about. FT @Scaramucci @Novogratz @AllThingsMkts @SkyBridge.

Scaramucci: Bitcoin's RSI is at an all-time low. Google searches are way down. Long-term holders now control a record 79% of supply. Is this a dead asset or bottom signal? Novogratz: "It will get its narrative back." The debasement trade returns the moment the Fed pivots. But right now "it's a good brand. It just has no energy. There are no new buyers." If you're a long-term holder, give it until March of next year before you scratch your head. FT @Scaramucci @Novogratz @AllThingsMkts @SkyBridge.

The Iran war is ending, the Fed just signaled its next move might be a hike, and the markets are on the verge of a melt-up, but here's what's keeping us up at night: only 1 in 10 young people entering the workforce in New York City are making a living wage, and the legislation that was supposed to help them is being gutted, with socialism becoming more popular. @novogratz and I are breaking it all down today on All Things Markets. @AllThingsMkts @SALTConference Watch on X, YouTube, and Spotify. Timestamps 0:00 The boys are back!! 1:59 What is going on with Iran? Is the war over or not? 4:58 The historical significance of signing a peace agreement in Versailles 6:05 Is the Federal Reserve going to hike rates?! 8:35 Kevin Warsh's prior statements about shrinking the Fed's balance sheet. Is he still planning on doing that? 10:32 How should Kevin Warsh react to Trump's statement? 11:51 What is going on between Anthropic and the US government? 17:31 Bernie Sanders unveils AI "Tax" plan 19:48 The positive view young people have of socialism 24:26 Bullish or Bearish 33:11 People don't care about Bitcoin anymore. Is it a dead asset? 35:52 What made you smile this week?

The @Tempo mainnet launched 93 days ago. Quick summary of the current state: • Run rate payment volume is around $3 billion. There's a long way to go, but it's cool to see real usage already emerging. (It took Stripe a lot longer than 93 days to get to $3 billion.) • As a blockchain, we obviously don't know about all the different use-cases. (Please tell us if you're doing something cool with Tempo!) Larger companies using Tempo include @Deel, which is using Tempo to pay out to their vast network of contractors, and @Meta, which is using it via @Link for global payouts. There are a bunch of other large companies working on Tempo integrations that'll be announced soon. • Internally, developing on Tempo has been fun, and Tempo is now Stripe's default blockchain for new features. • On the AI side of things, there appear to be around 1,000 active services selling to agents via the Machine Payments Protocol (@mpp). There's a useful directory of available services at mppscan.com. 570 unique agents, for example, seem to have purchased from @ExaAILabs, and 332 from @openweather. I don't know how long it'll take for this use-case to become big, but it seems all-but inevitable that it will within a few years. • Today, @Stripe, @Visa, and @StanChart are running Tempo validators. Validation will become more decentralized over time. • The Tempo team is building a lot of new protocol functionality. For example, privacy zones, receive policies, and virtual addresses. (Details for all on the Tempo blog: tempo.xyz/blog.) In general, our belief is that there's a lot of functionality to be built at the blockchain level to make higher-level applications easy and performant. The original thesis behind Tempo was that both AI and stablecoins would stretch blockchains in new ways, with need for privacy, fees denominated/payable in stablecoins, batch transactions, microtransactions, faster confirmations, and so forth. Overall, this still seems like the right set of bets, and the agentic stuff is happening somewhat faster than I was expecting. "1M stablecoin TPS, with the vast majority from agents" still seems like the right north star.

The policy, the votes, and the political will are finally aligned. Thank you @SenLummis, @berniemoreno, @SenRubenGallego for your bipartisan work to help advance this legislation in the Senate. It's time to move the Clarity Act to the full Senate floor.

Special thanks to @potus and @patrickjwitt for their work from the White House helping Congress get the Clarity Act over the finish line and cementing America's status as the crypto capital of the world.

What if the biggest thing standing between you and your best life isn't failure, it's what other people think of you? Today, I sit down with world-renowned high-performance psychologist @michaelgervais to break down the hidden fear holding back even the greatest athletes, executives, and leaders on the planet. Watch on X, YouTube, Spotify, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Timestamps 0:00 Michael Gervais Introduction 2:01 What drew Dr.Gervais to high-performance psychology? 4:30 Get your mind right before you take on the external world 6:51 FOPO: Fear of People's Opinions 7:44 Is fear of others' opinions more powerful than fear of failure or death? 10:29 Why is FOPO so pervasive in our culture? 13:55 Do we want our self-achievement tied to our identity? 16:57 Why is approval so addictive? 20:23 How much of FOPO is not knowing yourself? 22:21 How do you get off of zero in life? 27:34 Lessons on parenting 29:49 Five Words

Mike @novogratz thinks the entire market call comes down to one number: The SpaceX's valuation. If the stock holds above $1.75 trillion by December, Novogratz is calling the S&P at 8,000. If SpaceX fades back to a $1 trillion valuation, that means the IPO week was the top and the market will follow it down. Here's his logic: The SpaceX IPO was not just a single company going public but rather the culmination of the AI infrastructure frenzy. By proxy, it was one of the biggest risk signals. How the market treats it in the months after IPO is the clearest possible read on whether institutional appetite for speculative AI premium is still alive or already exhausted. On AI CapEx broadly, Novogratz's take is simple: The spending will be justified by productivity gains eventually. Breadth is narrowing. The rally is being carried by fewer and fewer names. But he is not calling the top. "I'd still think the bubble is not over." FT @SALTConference

Institutions spent years saying they don't need crypto. Now they’re all developing crypto strategies. John Darsie, CEO of @SALTConference & Partner at @SkyBridge, sees the shift firsthand. And we'll get his perspective at Avalanche Summit. Tickets: avalanchesummit.com Across both of his roles, John sits close to the conversations shaping how traditional finance thinks about digital assets, from allocators and family offices to the broader investing world. At Summit, that means a closer look at the questions institutions are asking now: how to allocate, how to manage risk, and how digital assets fit into the broader financial landscape. Join us there. Sept 16–17 | New York City

SpaceX just pulled off the biggest IPO in history, so Mike Novogratz (@novogratz) and I are breaking down what it means for your portfolio, why $40 trillion in debt might actually require inflation to survive, how Social Security is set to go broke by 2032, whether the Clarity Act still has a pulse, Bitcoin reclaiming $70K, and so much more on this week's All Things Markets (@AllThingsMkts). Watch on X, YouTube, and Spotify right now!!!!! Timestamps 0:00 Mooch and Novo are back! 0:43 SpaceX IPOs with the biggest IPO of all time 3:31 SpaceX and American innovation post-9/11 6:22 Senator Warren's letter on SpaceX voting structure 10:23 President Trump says inflation will "come down like a rock." 14:03 Social Security runs dry by 2032, and what we can do to fix it 16:38 Warsh signals a rate hike? SpaceX closes above $2 trillion on Day 1? 17:20 Iran war over by the end of June? 18:20 The Clarity Act passes the Senate by September 23:15 Bitcoin reclaims $70K before the end of July 24:47 Team USA advances out of the World Cup group stage 25:30 Knicks win the championship in Game 5 28:17 Breaking down Saylor's Bitcoin sell-then-buy strategy 31:15 What made you smile this week?