SHHC

@faithbelux 今年大师赛也会去看吗？

今天有呆在杭州的FQ或单男朋友吗？ 可以一起喝喝酒、打打网球、见见面哦。 单男要帅一些，发照片跟自我介绍！！！

@vivi77580 南法问我啊

准备去 南法和瑞士玩半个月！ 有什么推荐的吗？#巴黎 #瑞士 #上海 #南昌 #留学生

@DeItaone bullshit，reliable sources say

U.S. INTELLIGENCE AGENCIES ARE EXAMINING HOW IRAN WOULD REACT TO TRUMP DECLARING VICTORY IN CONFLICT, SOURCES SAY

@benedict97824 @HZCZ001 哈哈哈真嘲

@HZCZ001 听朋友说杭州今天下雨。雷公雨神单独给你圈养了，智商是好东西，可惜你没有。

今天陪侄女来西湖边泛舟了，不冷不热，给侄女租了套衣服，她穿上感觉像穿越了一样，一时竟不知是不是回到了古代，我是农夫她是大家闺秀。

@williamlab 您千万别忍 接着干吧哈哈哈

得，那就接着干吧咱。

@DeItaone u r not bbg staff pls stop posting fake news

Iran's foreign minister leaves Islamabad without meeting US envoys, Pakistan officials say

@Areskapitalon 缺失的油无法同意旷日持久的烂尾，我认为热战一直是个选项，而且很明显迫在眉睫

和谈本来就是意淫，川普又想尽办法无下限地绝对不愿进入热战。那怎么办，只能烂尾掉，现状拖下去到半年以后咯。 战争自此转为旷日持久的金融战。讽刺的是，与热战造成的全面经济危机预期不同，这不会立刻导致崩盘，而是会造成一种无奈状态下的选择性宽松，引发一个类似2007年的流动性泛滥导致的巨大泡沫。这不是健康的基本面驱动，而是美元体系解体过程中的大洪水。参与它的同时得完全清楚这不是任何意义上的价值投资。

@010bjfqahh @bj3p4p 我私信也没了

🪜不稳就算了 私信怎么也被吞😩 @bj3p4p #北京夫妻 #北京单男

@vivi77580 我明天去吃十八斩

很久没吃了。味道一路既往的好

@82WztfvhHqZz0Ub 至少目前我关注里面你是唯一此时此刻建立空单的 我觉得事后会验证 我觉得就track record而言 你很厉害

@CRUDEOIL231 SPX all time high and ppls celebrating AI dream with the concept that energy intensity of econ are much lower than 1970s.

If you thought March was the ultimate rock bottom, don't forget that there’s always a basement below the floor. The preliminary data for mid-April is already in, and OPEC+ exports are looking even worse than March. Resuming traffic? Folks talked like the ceasefire would be a silver bullet, but honestly things look even worse now than they did before the truce. It’s getting really hard to imagine we’re going to get through this without any major fallout. #oott #iran

@DonMiami3 u mean token？

Fertilizer going vertical. Maybe it matters, or we’ll just eat digital food. No inflation though.

@calvinfroedge indeed although it will take some time. now gov are filling the gap with SPR/CPR，but in 60days we will see everything short of supply. will end user pay higher bill？I doubt it.

I guess it will take a while to convince these people that the fundamental building blocks of civilization really are fundamental

@vivi77580 蒙特卡洛乡村俱乐部

@SHHCSHHCSHHC 这是哪

@macrotradecn stop posting fake news

4月12日美方宣布封锁令后，四艘中资超级油轮（"中远珠峰"号、"海荣海"号、"金海华"号、"久阳博南萨"号）仍按既定航线穿越海峡：大庆舰在附近海域提供护航。

@CRUDEOIL231 the gap between oil physical mkt and SPX even bigger.

What is the North Sea physic mkt, and how should the gap between the paper and physical markets be resolved? Every time I post about the physical market, I see a lot of complaints about why oil prices aren't rising further. Many ppl even criticize me, claiming I’m not explaining things properly. First, I’ll summarize the basic components of the North Sea market. ICE Brent Futures: A financially settled paper contract used primarily for broad directional hedging and speculation without the intention of physical delivery. EFP (Exchange of Futures for Physical): A swap that acts as a bridge, allowing a trader to convert a paper futures position into a physical cargo contract. Forward Brent: A standardized OTC physical swap for future delivery. It represents actual oil but remains non-dated bc the exact loading schedule is not yet determined. Dated Brent: The global benchmark price for physical crude. It is assessed daily by agencies like Platts based on actual trades of the most competitive grade within the BFOET+WTI basket, triggered once specific loading dates are confirmed (typically 10-30 days prior). CFD: A short-term swap representing the price difference between Forward Brent and Dated Brent. It is used to plot the physical forward curve and assess whether the market is in contango or backwardation. DFL (Dated to Frontline): A swap that links the physical Dated Brent assessment directly to the front-month ICE Futures contract, managing exposure between the physical and financial markets. Diff (Grade Basis): The premium or discount applied to a specific physical cargo relative to the Dated Brent benchmark. Driven by crude quality, logistics, and refinery demand, this unhedgeable spread is where physical traders generate profit. This alone should be enough. From there, I’ll explain how the gap between the paper market and the physical market actually closes. A massive divergence between Dated Brent (physic) and ICE Brent futures (paper) typically indicates acute near-term physical tightness relative to forward expectations. If Dated Brent remains at $120-130/bbl leading into the expiration of the front-month ICE Brent futures contract (currently around $100/bbl), the futures contract must converge toward the physical price. The convergence is not optional; it is mathematically enforced by the exchange's settlement rules and market arbitrage. This operates through three primary mechanisms: 1) Cash Settlement via the ICE Brent Index ICE Brent futures are cash-settled upon expiration and do not involve physical delivery. Expiring contracts are settled against the ICE Brent Index. The Index is a calculated average of trading activity in the relevant physical Forward BFOET(Brent, Forties, Oseberg, Ekofisk, Troll)+WTI Midland market during the final trading days of the futures contract. Bc Forward Brent and Dated Brent are intrinsically linked, a physical market sustaining $130 will generate an ICE Brent Index near $130. Consequently, any futures positions left open at expiration are forcibly settled at this higher Index price. 2) The Arbitrage Channel (EFP Mechanism) If a $30 spread exists between paper and physical markets, traders will immediately exploit the arbitrage using the EFP mechanism. Traders buy the undervalued ICE Brent futures at $100 and simultaneously sells a physical Forward Brent cargo at $130. They execute an EFP to swap their long paper futures position into a long physical Forward position. The newly acquired long physical position cancels out their short physical position, locking in a profit (minus the EFP swap cost). To execute this arbs on a large scale, traders must aggressively buy ICE futures. This massive purchasing volume forces the futures price up until the gap closes and the arb window is eliminated. 3) Forced Short Covering Market participants holding short positions in the ICE Brent futures market face extreme risk if the physical market disconnects to the upside. Knowing the contract is destined to cash-settle against a $130 physical Index, paper shorts cannot afford to hold their $100 positions into expiration. They are forced to buy back their futures contracts to close their positions before the expiry date. This forced buying—often resulting in a short squeeze—accelerates the upward momentum of the ICE futures price, driving it into alignment with the physical market. Through the combination of final index settlement and active EFP arbs, the paper market is structurally tethered to physical reality as expiration approaches. #oott #iran

@benedict97824 太顶了这身材

@zuoerdd12 @Kai866 looks very gaygay hahha sorry

@Kai866 爱泼斯坦联盟

目前来看的人类轴心：

@masteryeager @Kai866 稍微有良心的政府都不会主动发起战争，什么垃圾啊，战争贩子你懂吗？

@Kai866 肉盾就肉盾啦，什麼人鏈，小朋友都有 稍微有點良心的政府都不會讓這種事發生，除了中共、北韓、俄羅斯和伊朗政府

我觉得这简直不可思议，伊朗人自发站在大桥上，形成人链。对于欧美人来说，这种行为形同自杀，是不可理解的。毕竟他们连零元购都不允许反抗。但是我觉得中国人能理解这种力量，无论历史是否有争议，今晚必将载入人类史册。 我们在看到一个未来的全球顶尖国家正在从毁灭中崛起。