Asymmetric Alpha

@DiMartinoBooth Recent interview with @JuliaLaRoche was great.

I'll be speaking at Nomad Capitalist Live — Nov 4-7, 2026, in Cancun, Mexico. Tickets are now on sale at: na2.hubs.ly/H04WZdd0 You won’t want to miss it. #NomadCapitalistLive #WealthProtection #SecondCitizenship #Resilience #CancunMexico #HNWI

@Liathetrader Decent option flow today in $HIMS.

$HIMS still holding above $19. The plan - • Hold above $19 • Form a higher low • First Target = $30

@judahrhodie $270M in max profit? My birthday is coming up! 👀

🚨Look at this giant NFLX trade that came in this afternoon: 🚨 It's a credit roll not a new credit spread - note we don't miss anything at Rhodie Option Intelligence: Closing Aug 105/125 (90,000 contracts): - Sell 105C @ $10.48 = +$94,320,000 - Buy 125C @ $3.31 = −$29,790,000 - Net received: $64,530,000 Opening Jul 120/140 (135,000 contracts): - Buy 120C @ $3.22 = −$43,470,000 - Sell 140C @ $0.56 = +$7,560,000 - Net paid: $35,910,000 Net on the roll: +$28,620,000 credit This fella pocketed $28.62M on the roll. The Aug 105/125 had moved into range as the stock came down to $106.50 - 105C was $1.50 ITM - so he closed it, collected the value, and used less than half of the proceeds to open 135,000 contracts of the Jul 120/140. They also increased contract size by 50% (90k to 135k). Max profit on the old spread was $180M, new spread is $270M. So this fella took partial profits on the Aug position that was working, pocketed $28.62M, and bought 50% more contracts at higher strikes for a continuation move. Credit roll, bigger upside, shorter runway.

@judahrhodie $IGV retraced 61.8% of the move up from q3 2022.

$IGV - rare big ass trade - followed this from the flow this morning - in size. Dec 90 calls

@rinsana Crude oil is + 7% as of about four hours ago.

Does anyone have a oil quote from Hyperliquid?

@judahrhodie Use Maldon on steak, etc.?

@GoForGrubes2 Only thing I would say is ditch kosher salt - buy Maldon

MacGruber Ceviche Part 2 At 30 mins, I flip each piece of 🐟 over. You'll notice at 30, the Lime juice is WORKING. At 45, I'll take it out, hit it w/Kosher Salt & add my 3 peppers (I usually do 🔴 instead of 🟢 for color) I begin to mix it ALL at ~60 Prob 2/3 🫑 for 👍 ratios

@Liathetrader $HIMS has ~ 40% short interest.

$HIMS we can see a battle at $19, where bulls are tring to defend this level. If $19 can hold, then a higher low has formed. Who's buying $HIMS here?

@JSpitTrades $WULF monthly showing life.

$WULF starting to break out on the weekly +9% yesterday. Now, +21% on the week This data center name has been consolidating since October. Looks awesome. But it's also had a million false starts. So, let's see if this breakout can stick WULF and $NBIS looking like group leaders.

@BenBrey Even the Masters is on Bloomberg. Amazing.

Best thing on the screens today folks - ITS MASTERS WEEKEND!

@TheVoz4Real Cats are sneaky.

My Jameson isn’t a fan of the phrase Dead Cat Bounce So we call it the Jameson Jumps … and Dumps 😂

@ces921 Similar to Mafia control of waste management in the NYC area.

The IRGC is attempting to accomplish something that no military power has achieved in the modern era: it has converted a global maritime chokepoint into a managed economic instrument that simultaneously generates revenue, imposes compounding costs on adversaries, normalizes sovereign authority through commercial practice, and finances its own enforcement. The throttle is historically novel, structurally self-reinforcing, and calibrated to be sustainable at current intensity indefinitely. The Danish Sound Toll ran for 428 years before maritime nations collectively paid Denmark to end it. Iran does not need 428 years. It needs the time required for the accumulated economic cost of the throttle, approximately 27 mb/d of net supply disruption against a 105 mb/d demand baseline, to exceed the political cost for Washington of accepting "Condition 5" in some form. It is becoming increasingly clear that the cost is rising faster than Washington's political capacity to absorb it. The question is not whether Iran collects tolls at Hormuz. Iran is already collecting them. The Larak Island corridor is already operating. The dark fleet is already transiting. The commercial arrangements are already in place. The parliamentary legislation is already being drafted. The question is the price of the Copenhagen Convention that ends it (google it, was in 1857). And whether Washington accepts that price before the throttle has run long enough to make the cost of not accepting it greater than the cost of accepting it. On Day 28 of the conflict, with dual chokepoints active now, US military assets struck across two countries, the Axis of Resistance fully activated, and the diplomatic channels absent, that price is rising by the hour.

@JuliaLaRoche @Convertbond @Allyt714 @sam_vadas @DianeKingHall @MichelleMakori @Convertbond ........... the Ladies Man.

Thank you @Convertbond Larry McDonald for hosting us! @Allyt714 @sam_vadas @DianeKingHall @MichelleMakori

@TheVoz4Real Liquidity drain began in early q3 2025 when I posted about it.

Would you guys like another update? This was just the start baby.

@TheVoz4Real Caviar and champagne time.

Another perfect day for puts 👸🏼

@CheddarFlow Same buying yesterday. 👆 $IWM

This is Highly Unusual $IWM $2.5M Far OTM Puts

@MrNotAdvice Far too many false claims and bogus on social media.

@zostaff This is complete and utter bullshit. As someone who has used Claude to actual code and test trading bots this post is bullshit.

CLAUDE MADE ME 3 TRADING BOTS IN 15 MINUTES +$2,503 in my wallet the next day, I quit my job that same day. I wrote one prompt and answered a few questions. Claude took three strategies - MACD, RSI + VWAP, CVD divergence. Assigned each bot its own. The first one catches momentum - sees when volume picks up and gets in before the crowd wakes up. The second one trades reversals - waits for everyone to panic and bets against them. The third one scans divergences - when price says one thing but money does another, it follows the money. Built the structure itself, wrote the backtest, ran each strategy on historical data, set up the risk manager, deployed - all on its own. Three bots, three accounts, each trades differently - they don't know about each other. Started with $1, then $5, then $10, then $50, then $2,503 in a day. Citadel, Jane Street, Two Sigma have been trading with bots for years - they don't feel fear, greed, or FOMO - they only listen to algorithms. The market rewards systems.

@TheVoz4Real RAM is also going to experience heightened demand because some of corporate America is finding the cost of computation in SaaS more expensive than in house. Some companies are already migrating back from cloud/SaaS.

Inflation *can* be bad for the economy. The Fed left rates unchanged for us. But do you know the hidden inflation? RAM It is very expensive for tech companies to support their projections in AI let alone their usual biz. Think about that. I’ll be back.

@gnoble79 Apple will choose what it wants from the carcasses of AI. $AAPL

Apple is going to win the AI race because they're REFUSING to participate. Everyone's laughing at them for "falling behind". But there's a concept in investing most people misunderstand: The assumption is that whoever spends the most wins. Bigger capex = bigger moat = bigger returns Historically, the OPPOSITE is true. Companies that outspend their peers on capital expenditure consistently deliver worse forward returns than companies that exercise discipline. The data is unambiguous. And right now we're watching the most aggressive capex arms race in the history of corporate America. Amazon announced $200 billion in 2026 capex. The stock dropped 11% the day after. Alphabet committed $175-185 billion. Microsoft $145 billion. Meta $115-135 billion. These companies are now consuming roughly 90% of their operating cash flow on infrastructure spending. They're borrowing over $400 billion collectively to cover the gap. Meanwhile Apple: - Sits on $130 billion in cash - Returns $100+ billion a year to shareholders through buybacks and dividends - Outsources its AI compute to partners instead of building its own infrastructure from scratch Wall Street calls this "falling behind." I call it DISCIPLINE. And there's a perfect parallel from the auto industry: Toyota refused to go all in on EVs when every other manufacturer was racing to electrify. The media hammered them. Analysts downgraded them. The narrative was that Toyota was a dinosaur. Instead, Toyota doubled down on hybrids, let competitors burn through capital on first-generation EV infrastructure, and watched the early adopters make expensive mistakes (eange anxiety, charging network gaps, margin compression). The result? Toyota sold 10.8 million vehicles in 2024. Fifth consecutive year as the world's top-selling automaker. Hybrids now account for nearly half their US sales. Their stock has outperformed every major traditional automaker over the past four years. The late mover won. The disciplined capital allocator won. Not because Toyota ignored the future but because they let EVERYONE ELSE pay for the learning curve. That's EXACTLY what Apple is doing with AI. They're watching Microsoft, Amazon, and Google pour hundreds of billions into data centers and GPU clusters. They're observing which approaches work and which don't. They're keeping their powder dry. When the technology matures and the economics clarify, Apple will move. With $130 billion in cash, they can acquire or build whatever they need - on THEIR timeline, at THEIR price, after everyone else has made the expensive mistakes. This is not falling behind. This is capital allocation at the highest level. The companies spending the most right now are making 3-5 year bets priced for immediate returns. If monetization doesn't arrive on schedule, those hundreds of billions become the most expensive sunk cost in corporate history. Apple's risk? Missing a cycle. That's manageable. Everyone else's risk? Spending $700 billion on infrastructure that generates insufficient returns. That's CATASTROPHIC. Sometimes the smartest move in an arms race is refusing to participate.

@BenBrey @DiMartinoBooth Powell has lost the plot.

The Squirrel & I just had @DiMartinoBooth on the show for Ep.33 and chatted on very timely topic. Lets just say the consensus opinion was that SFRZ7 is a buy, especially after this recent selloff. We chatted The Fed, Private Credit, NDFI & Banks, and gave some good historical analogs. ENJOY! @SquirrelMacro

@fkronawitter1 Price not following narrative. 🤔

*TRUMP SAYS WAR WITH IRAN WILL END SOON: AXIOS *TRUMP TO AXIOS: 'PRACTICALLY NOTHING LEFT' TO TARGET IN IRAN Crude rallying on these headlines and the cuncurrent SPR release statement is a red red flag for risk