SP93

You are not investing You are not allocating capital You are trying to skim off Imperial Credits in areas ignored or overlooked by the First Eunuch of the Purse and the State Ministry of Financial Control

Lmao

Tacoyahu This entire affair is farcical

@LongVol42069 @ActAccordingly Agreed. At some point capacity build out will meet the surplus demand. But remember (1) this is an oligopoly (2) HBM is less of a commodity bit

@SP199393 @ActAccordingly Two things can be true: 1) agentic AI requires more memory 2) memory is still cyclical, at least to a degree

If you're wondering about the action in $MU today, I think you should look to Druckenmiller's sage advice on chemical stocks. If you don't look at the $MU print as anything but a commodity producer benefitting from a supply/demand imbalance you're probably not going to do well here. I don't make the rules, he does: "Chemical stocks, however, behave quite differently. In this industry, the key factor seems to be capacity. The ideal time to buy the chemical stocks is after a lot of capacity has left the industry and there’s a catalyst that you believe will trigger an increase in demand. Conversely, the ideal time to sell these stocks is when there are lots of announcements for new plants, not when the earnings turn down. The reason for this behavioral pattern is that expansion plans mean that earnings will go down in two to three years, and the stock market tends to anticipate such developments."

Prediction: next leg of broad market selling pressure will come from widening credit spreads - EUR IG CDS spreads still at 80bps but climbing fast - they touched 120 on Liberation Day; this energy price shock feels at least equivalent to that in terms of negative earnings impact / higher default probability

Agree. Keeping an eye on credit spreads - esp. HY, rates move is one thing but I am not sure we are yet seeing defaults priced in, esp. industrials which were already seeing record low levels of demand Both IG and HY CDS indices up 20% ish YTD, but still only half of what they were Liberation Day - I don’t think that’s right at all

The UK has managed to combine the weakest economy with the most hawkish central bank. Bound to end well

@PolemicTMM @db_fink I’m genuinely dumbfounded by the BoE

UK yield curve taking a killing. Short end seen violent moves and 2 year seen biggest move since 2022 Truss moment. Real yields rising. That's the real cost the gov has to pay. Sterling fx up a bit on 'ooo higher yields' but can't be long before this flips to 'oh UK has gone Emerging Market sell £' #WAF.

LOL

@aRishisays They are so so bad at guiding the markets and always 2 steps behind

It’s over! BoE just closed the lid on the global cut cycle! 3 hikes priced now for 2026 vs 2 cuts at the beginning of the month! 🔄 ⚰️🪦 How does the BoE consistently manage to inject more volatility into the market needs to be studied! Couldn’t get worse at communicating.

Can see something systemic happening, bank default etc. at this rate

@MrMBrown These guys are walking us into disaster. Energy shock is recession, it’s that simple

This feels like a BoE that's on the verge of making a horrific policy mistake

Prediction: it’s every country now for itself to maintain sovereignty of supply What is coming in the next 5 years will by far exceed the decline in globalisation post 2022. I’m talking all out conflict between continents to corner essential resources, this is of course super bullish on defence. I fear sad times are ahead for humanity

Haha - this is getting utterly absurd

It’s over. Europe to go to Russia hat in hand to avoid utter destitution

Energy shock = recession Labour markets are not as strong as they were in 2022 This is very bad

@alexwickham Impotent rage Starmer will start to face immense pressure from here with these gilt moves

This is why as we wrote at the weekend there is barely contained fury at Trump behind the scenes in the UK govt. His war knocks off course their hopes of the economy turning a corner this year. And there will be even less market tolerance for a more left-wing leader

I’m not sure people in the UK fully appreciate how bad this situation is, and starting from all time lows in domestic sentiment and peak political uncertainty Prediction: >50% chance Starmer out in 6 months if this persists Also, the BoE MPC voting 9-0 to hold, WTF - curve now pricing they will hike us straight into a recession