Scott

Yes I might have a Newcastle supporters hat on right now. But any time a club who finished back to back 17th can spend upwards of £300m, while teams who get UCL are forced to sell, Something is very wrong. PSR is designed to protect the big 6 and I won’t be told otherwise.

Newcastle will probably be the most underrated team in the Prem going into next season. I would bet that Newcastle will finish ahead of at least one of Arsenal, City, United, Liverpool, Chelsea and Tottenham. 🔺But they sold everyone and changed manager? Most of the team is intact. Notably Pope, Thiaw, Botman, Schär, Burns, Hall (?), Livramento, Joelinton, Miley, Wilock, Barnes, Elanga, Murphy, Woltemade, Osula and Wissa. 🔺Vast research on what impact new managers and signings have on a team, also show that the — by far — biggest impact on how a team performs is not its players or manager, it is how it played the season before. For example, as a rule, probability is that Brentford in 26/27 will have a statistical footprint and performance similar to 25/26 regardless if Brentford kept its managers and had little turnover on the squad or if Brentford changed its managers and had a high turnover on the squad. Football clubs of course change, improve or get worse, but it is more uncommon than what might be expected and changes take longer than expected, as a rule. Cliches like style of play exist ‘in the walls’ of a team has a lot of truth to it. One way to look at it is to assume that a football club is a complex organism that is a lot bigger than it seems. It usually takes removing more than a few key parts of it to get it to change, those removed parts tend to grow out again. At least as a rule. 🔺Newcastle has lost, and assuming it will lose, Howe, Gordon, Tonali, Trippier and Guimares. Perhaps also Lewis Hall. Consequently, those outgoings have brought in a heck of a lot of money and removed a lion share of the player wage bill. Newcastle can do anything they want on the transfer market. But when you look at the squad, they don’t really have any big holes for a club that only will play one game per week. Not even in the midfield, really. For 3 positions, they have Bamba, Ramsey, Joelinton, Miley, Willock and Steur. A top CM would of course be optimal, but it’s not essential. But they must only make a signing if they can find the right player. And they have a capable organization. 🔺A PL season is of course tough, the marginals are small. A lot of things can go wrong. But that is the same for all teams. Most are writing Newcastle off. Liverpool starts the season away against Newcastle. I doubt it will be an easy game for them. United play Newcastle away on 26 December. In the 6 weeks leading up to that game Newcastle will have played app. 7 games and United 13. It won’t be an easy game (for United at least). I am not saying that Newcastle will finish top 5 — but I would assume that they will push for it.

Oh Jaissle, I can boogie 🕺