₿it Maniæc 🟧 🇷🇺 CCCP 🇷🇺

🚨 Il échange 50 millions de dollars… et reçoit à peine 36 000 $.... Quelqu'un a tenté d’échanger 50 Millions d'$USDT contre des $AAVE via l’interface d’Aave, mais malgré un avertissement de slippage extrêmement élevé, il a confirmé la transaction.... Résultat : seulement 324 $AAVE reçus, soit environ 36 100 $. Le fondateur d’Aave Stani Kulechov a annoncé que le protocole rembourserait environ 600 000 $ de frais.

What I was seeing here was: 1) Accumulation (internal) but I think many people knew that already. 2) Value building and accepting higher (POC migration) above the 3W profile. 3) The next main pivot for BTC is around 9 March. BTC pumped higher than range highs and was able to close above it with 12H candles. The quoted post was for the next week and not what happened the past week. But is a deviation or a breakout? Debatable but if it is a breakout then BTC should absolutely hold this current area we are in (preferable not going lower than 66k). The PA is showing signs of distribution which is not something I wanted to see. So critical week coming up for BTC. A pivot and either a distribution and dump back down to new lows (I did an update on where I am looking as next target for BTC on my TL couple weeks ago) or we get a bullish continuation. If I go back into previous updates. I mentioned a mid January pivot for BTC and another main one for ETH around 8 February. So far the bottom of 6 Feb is still holding which means the main pivot of ETH is still playing out but it's taking time to see upside which we should be seeing in a bullish phases for ETH. Due to momentum and counter-trend environment, it's harder to see upside in these phases. The next main phase for BTC after failing mid-January is around 9 March (chart in the pic). This bullish phase (which I mentioned before) lasts until mid April ish. PS: If the bearish case happens (and we don't pump in this bullish phase) and the bullish case gets invalidated, then maybe the next phase provides the big relief rally (from Mid April to mid June) and perhaps from 44k key level. Some arguments of why I am still not flipping bearish entirely yet: 1) CNY: Historically speaking, CNY has always marked a significant bottom and/or bullish continuation for BTC. Titanic historically is the opposite, it marks a top or bearish continuation. Only in 2025, it was the inverse but this pattern is a fact. The current 6 Feb low happened just before CNY. Next week is the first week after CNY. -> Using this argument, the bullish case looks more favorable or else this year will also be an inverse (not likely). 2) OIL: My main target for OIL is 95$ which is a huge target and supply there. Likely OIL won't be able to break that level on a first attempt. Yes OIL is imo going much higher (likely new ATH) over the next year but it won't be in 1 candle. This 95$ target is now very close so peace talk over the MEA is not something I would be surprised if it happens and this would be the catalyst for risk to outperform in these uncertainties. This reminds me of June 2025. 3) Russia-Ukraine: A war happened around the same time in 2022. BTC found the bottom at the same date of invasion (24 Feb 2022) just after CNY marking the bottom, but it wasn't until 14 March when we saw the real upside happen with a 30-40% move on BTC and topped just before Titanic. Again the same pattern in 1. 4) BVOL: At resistance. Every time this chart is at support or resistance, it marks a HTF shift. To guess which direction this shift and HTF move is going to be, you need BTC. Is BTC at demand or Supply? Obviously at demand, so it's likely that the next shift is up and not down. 5) Psychology: It's not any surprise that this game and in general life is a psychological warfare. It's engineered this way. And the people are the victims. If you look at sentiment today, it's the worst it has ever been. How worse can it get? We have literally WW3. There is nothing worse than that. Look where consensus is standing at: literally everyone is looking at that 2022 fractal still and once enough people accept it as the 'secret sauce' that's when whales shift it. Today, we have everyone believing in it and that's the main reason why it's so hard for me to shift bias. I never want to be in consensus side. People think 40-50k by Q4 2026 for a 4 year bottom. It's never that easy. That scenario is likely not happening. Whales will make sure 40-50k gets front-run and people stay sidelined or they nuke it much much lower (why I think 28k will be the bottom). If the bearish scenario happens and we get the relief from 44k, this would be too easy for retail and likely not profitable for whales. What would make sense the most to me when it comes to psychology and if I were to think as a whale: Pump BTC back to 90s, people will scream no more bear market or bottom bear market and FOMO at the top just for another crash to happen to wipe them all back to 40-50k. At 40-50k, some people might bid since it's where they expect the bottom to be and that level barely holds and fails so it nukes to sub 30k with insane bearish narratives going around and they fumble the bear market lows. 6) This one is extra. I want to bring out DOGE. Look at the chart, zoom out on the macro. You want to convince me that this is a place where I should be selling DOGE?? Macro POC, Macro demand. The last time DOGE was here, it pumped almost 5X. The next optimal level is around 0.06$ which I think will come in the future. But in order to get it, DOGE needs to lose that 2024 low which is a very hard level to lose on a first attempt. It likely needs at least 2 attempt. It doesn't make any sense to me to be bearish on that chart down there after 5 months of excessive selling. Conclusion: Eyes like a hawk on next week and BVOL👁️

$BTC weekly I'm a buyer here.

This potential redistribution would have a maximum pain level for bears around $75,000. Only near that level does it start to look interesting to open short positions and hold them for a few weeks.