Striver23

@gustav0cardenas It wasn’t science that helped the primary driver was sanitation - indoor plumbing, treated water, etc. “science” came later. This overstates the impact of science. It helped sure maybe 35-40%. Majority was sanitation.

El astrofísico Neil deGrasse Tyson lo resume con datos que no admiten mucha discusión: En la época de las cavernas, un ser humano vivía en promedio 30 años. Para 1840, la esperanza de vida apenas había subido a 35. Y eso que todo era “orgánico”: aire puro, agua sin procesar y animales de libre pastoreo. Aun así, la gente moría joven. Lo que realmente disparó la expectativa de vida no fue la “vida natural”, sino la ciencia: vacunas, antibióticos, saneamiento, tecnología médica y conocimiento acumulado. Por eso las expectativas razonables deben alinearse con lo que muestra la evidencia científica. Y si algo enseña la historia es esto: cada vez que confiamos en la evidencia, avanzamos; cada vez que la ignoramos, retrocedemos.

@CoachDanGo Practice gratitude

Non-negotiables after 40: · Don't be fat · Stay hydrated · Walk 8,000 steps daily · Prioritize sleep like an athlete · Get bloodwork done annually · Spend time with friends & family · Strength train at least 2-3x per week · Hit at least .7 grams of protein per pound of bw Anything you'd add?

@SantiagoAuFund Miami possible.

If and when the end of this Fourth Turning comes, and the Financial Capital of the World leaves NYC, it is more likely to end up moving to Texas than somewhere in Asia.

@ces921 SWFL rocks.

Tried to get balloons at the local Publix down here in SWFL for my daughter today. Publix attendant said they are out of Helium because the Strait of Hormuz is closed. Was surprised that helium shortages showed up so quickly. Also was pleasantly surprised that Publix worker knew the reason why.

@nickgerli1 Illegal aliens leaving?!?

What's going on in the Tampa Bay area? Apartment vacancies just spiked to 8.7%. Haven't seen anything like this in 10+ years. They're going vertical.

@HayekAndKeynes Your analysis is woefully simplistic. And wrong. What are people in the countries with no fertilizer going to eat in 9 months? Absurd.

While this is the most extreme fuel disruption the world has ever experienced, it’s interesting how even cutting fuel consumption by 20% is not a difficult thing to do. It doesn’t make any difference to my personal finances, but I’ve been curious whether I could actually reduce my consumption by 10% or 20% without a lot of sacrifice, so I monitored what I did this week and tried to be intentional. Switching from my diesel to my EV was the easiest change, and I honestly didn’t drive it at all this week and used the golf cart for small trips around town. However, we’re going on a road trip now, and I don’t want to deal with supercharger wait times and range anxiety, so we took the diesel. I was curious how much speed changes would impact fuel economy. At 80 mph we got 18 miles per gallon, and at 60 mph we got 28 mpg—pretty absurd. I’m sure that those who are more constrained financially will just skip trips or carpool and will definitely take a more fuel-efficient option. I feel very confident that the world can make similar changes if nudged a little. Something could even come from the top down, like going back to a hybrid schedule if needed. That’s one of the few things workers would actually cheer for. The other part is the actual magnitude of fuel expenses. Assume someone drives 10,000 miles a year and gets 25 miles per gallon. You’re only talking about 400 gallons a year. That means a $2–3 jump in gasoline prices is not even $75–100 a month. Less for cities, more for rural areas. Likely for 3-9 months in duration. I would expect tourism (esp road trips) to be the natural casualty as this just adds a modest expense to a discretionary purchase that’s on the bubble for most. My other observation is that this seems more likely to be a medium-term deflationary force, as we make modest behavioral shifts that favor fuel economy while rushing to bring new supply to market.

@FinanceLancelot No one believes him anymore. Or at least they shouldn’t. It’s all propaganda

BREAKING: Trump says Iran is interested in making a deal.

@biancoresearch Jim WTI is oil at Henry hub. It’s not in short supply and export restrictions are a real possibility. WTI is not going to spike as much the oil market is splitting globally.

When Trump announced a delay to the bombing on Monday morning, crude oil futures immediately fell 10%. Compare this to the reaction to yesterday afternoon, when he extended the delay another 10 days (red box). It was short-lived, and now, about 12 hours later, prices are meaningfully higher. I believe the market signal is that the Strait must be opened, and the military must do it. The longer we delay starting this process, the higher crude oil prices will go. All Trump did yesterday was add 10 more days to the ongoing supply shock. Any further statements by Trump about a deal are white noise to the markets. Only if the IRANIANS say the talks are going well will it impact markets. Why isn't the crude oil market substantially higher ($150+), like many are asking? I would argue that the market believes the military can open the Strait. But it will be "messy." In other words, there are no good choices, only ones that are less bad.

@jfhksar88 They are going to radically increase QE in 2-4 weeks if the straight remains closed.

I keep being told the Fed will have to raise rates. Yeah, well, they can’t. 🍿

@ArmstrongEcon Well he’s tried everything else he’s such an idiot for starting this.

Why has Trump backed away from blowing up the energy sector in Iran? He realizes this would result in retaliation against the Gulf states, taking out their production and sending oil prices soaring.

@RonDeSantis Thank you Governor!

In-state tuition at Florida‘s state universities has not increased at all since 2019.

@biancoresearch Jim they are not going to hike unless they start way more QE simultaneously. Just look at every elevated move index since 2022. You’re foolish. The best bet here is serious money printing after a rise in move to 150+. Foreigners selling treasuries to raise cash is the catalyst.

6/6 Given all the above: It should be no surprise that the market is completely repricing Fed expectations, from two cuts (-2) just three weeks ago (day before the war) to now pricing in part of a hike (+0.37) by October. (Note, this hike is still less than +0.50 or 50%, but the way things are going, give it a few more days!)

1/6 The 10-year yield was up 13 bps yesterday, closing at 4.38%, the highest level since late July The bond market's view changed in the last few days. 🧵

@KatusaResearch Corn is not food! No one should be ingesting a crop that can be used as car fuel. It’s effectively poison.

The Worst Possible Moment About 50% of the nitrogen applied to U.S. corn goes in during spring planting. A vessel loaded in the Persian Gulf today takes 30 days to reach a U.S. port And another 3 to 4 weeks to reach interior farm markets. The American Farm Bureau Federation sent an urgent letter to the White House on March 9th. And their message was direct: fertilizer is stranded in the Middle East during the most critical window of the agricultural calendar. Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins confirmed publicly that roughly 25% of American farmers have not yet secured their fertilizer for this spring. The choice facing those farmers is ugly. They can reduce nitrogen application, switch from corn (which needs heavy nitrogen) to soybeans. Or, absorb the cost and bet on crop prices recovering. None of those options are good. One Iowa corn grower put the math in plain terms. Anhydrous ammonia cost him $492 a ton in 2021. By January 2025, it was $745. Corn prices barely moved. Now add the current shock on top of that. At current levels, it takes roughly 133 bushels of corn to buy one ton of urea, the highest ratio since the 2022 spike.

@chrismartenson Chris - yes it is. The dollar being devalued

Spoiler alert: It's not going to happen.

@chrismartenson In a fire sale EVERYTHING MUST GO

Let's be clear, everything is plummeting more or less equally. That points to a liquidity crisis, which points to leveraged positions scrambling for dollars. Not because that's the 'right' thing to do, but because that's what the contracts require. Here's a clue from yesterday.

@rektfencer In a fire sale everything must go.

EVERY SAFE HAVEN JUST FAILED BTC. GOLD. STOCKS. OIL. FIAT. THE WHOLE FINANCIAL SYSTEM IS BREAKING. WHERE DOES CAPITAL GO NOW?

@S_Mikhailovich @BlackAlex58 Feels like a margin call on gulf producers oil shorts they sold gold to cover.

Performance wise, it has been gold's worst week since 1983. Systemic risk wise, it has been world's worst week in our lifetime.

@chrismartenson Hotel California. He can check out any time but….

Trump is furiously seeking a way out of the biggest blunder in global economic history. Everything except admitting he made an even larger error than Warp Speed. There's a way out of this, just not with a megalomaniac in charge. From CNN:

@KYRRadio @AndreasSteno Precisely. They want to inflict pain

@AndreasSteno Don’t think Iran stops til crude busts loose. Why go this far without showing you can

I think the below is decently fair

@cd_hooks I was actually wondering the same thing. They do hedge. But not for this.

Sincere question: if jet fuel prices triple is there a chance airlines rescind tickets already sold for later in the year at a cheap price?