Sak 🔴

@CRUDEOIL231 this is 🔥

Just went through the latest OIES report on what’s been happening in the oil paper market over the last three months. Here’s the breakdown: 1) In a typical geopolitical scare, you'd expect spec money to pile in and send open interest through the roof. Instead we witnessed a complete anomaly: Brent futures open interest absolutely cratered. 2) On the flip side, daily volumes actually went through the roof. It shows everyone was aggressively passing the hot potato intraday to shift risk, but nobody had the stomach to hold overnight exposure. And now even that day-trading volume is drying up fast. 3) Money managers like hedge funds and CTAs live for trading time, arb, and product spreads based on real oil fundies. But once the war sent vol off the charts, it blew straight through their internal VaR limits. Facing massive margin hikes, they were forced into a structural retrenchment. The capital cost of just holding onto those positions became way too expensive. 4) When the geopolitical conflict flared up, North American shale independents found themselves severely under-hedged. As crude prices ripped higher, they panicked to lock in those attractive margins, offloading massive swap volumes to their bank counterparts. This clearing activity forced a structural expansion in the CFTC data, leading to a concurrent spike in swap dealer shorts and offsetting commercial long exposure across the WTI curve. 5) The Brent-WTI blowout triggered by the Hormuz crisis blew the physical arb wide open for moving North American barrels into Europe and Asia. To nail down those arbitrage margins, mega physical trading houses executed a 'Long WTI / Short Brent' spread trade, which acted as a critical floor for WTI open interest. 6) ICE blunt-force doubled Brent margins, while CME played it smart by using its SPAN system to give massive portfolio-based risk offsets on inter-commodity spreads. On a pure capital-efficiency basis, it was a total no-brainer to park your margin in WTI instead of Brent. 7) As open interest fled the futures complex, everyone piled into options to keep chasing directional plays with a hard stop on risk. Going long premium meant your downside was strictly capped at the premium paid—no brutal daily mark-to-market margin calls, which saved your balance sheet flexibility. Operationally, it was a massive relief because you didn't have to stay awake 24/7 babysitting a position overnight. Shorting options, though, was absolute suicide thanks to that nasty convex risk and punishing margin hikes. 8) Trading in ultra short-dated paper absolutely exploded as players scrambled to chase headline risk in real time. This April weekly WTI options saw average daily volumes skyrocket to around 33,000 contracts, up nearly 50% y/y. 0DTE options squeezed their market share up from 25% to 30% of the entire WTI options complex, while 1-3 DTE contracts also expanded their footprint from 34% to 39% #oott #iran

@natxwang Hey Nat, how have you been?

Singapore being hit by layoffs from companies moving to Malaysia to lower costs and layoffs because of AI... No job is secure. I remember people saying it will take 5 more years before it impacts. Nah. It's already here and the acceleration is quicker than we imagined.

Happy birthday @shanicucic96 Bro still grinding today. No days off 🫡

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Have fun paying Dated +20 reuters.com/business/energ…

@biancoresearch Nice to see a positive tweet from you once in a while @biancoresearch

Good news! *MISSING US AIRMAN RESCUED AFTER JET DOWNED IN IRAN: AXIOS

Update (15 minutes ago): *KUWAIT REPORTS IRAN ATTACK ON POWER, WATER DESALINATION PLANTS *KUWAIT SAYS POWER, WATER DESALINATION PLANTS DAMAGED: AFP *KUWAIT: SIGNIFICANT MATERIAL DAMAGE AT 2 POWER GENERATION UNITS *BAHRAIN INTERIOR MINISTRY: FIRE AT FACILITY AFTER IRAN ATTACK

If you hold BTC or ETH right now, the most important chart you're NOT watching is oil. The Strait of Hormuz carries 20% of the world's oil. It's effectively closed. This is the biggest potential supply disruption in history — 5 million barrels/day offline. Why crypto investors should care: Oil above $120 = inflation spike = Fed can't cut = risk assets get crushed. Crypto doesn't trade in a vacuum. I track 4 signals priced by people with real money at risk: Signal 1: Insurance premiums — 2% hull value (8x normal) Signal 2: Ship transits — 0 ships/day (normally 100) Signal 3: Brent vs Dubai physical spread — $16 gap Signal 4: Timeline cliff — US SPR runs dry in 12 days Right now: 4/4 signals flashing red. So I vibecoded a real-time dashboard that pulls live futures from Yahoo Finance, scrapes insurance + shipping data, and runs AI analysis on 6 news feeds daily. Free, no login, updates every 15 min: hormuz-signal-tracker.vercel.app If you're making portfolio decisions without watching oil, you're flying blind. The April cliff is 12 days away.

@nakul_sarda Built a live tracker for your 4 Hormuz signals @nakul_sarda - Insurance: 1.0% (6.7x baseline) - Ship transit: 6/day (90% collapse) - Spread: Brent $104 vs Dubai $120 - Supply cliff: 14 days Real-time futures, vessel map, regional impact. hormuz-signal-tracker.vercel.app

I've stopped reading Gulf war headlines. Here's what I track instead. We run an India-focused equity fund. 85% of India's crude comes from imports. Half of that normally passes through Hormuz. So yes — this crisis is personal. But the information environment right now is garbage. Trump says the war ends tomorrow. Iran says Hormuz is shut forever. One analyst says $150 oil, another says $60. You can't build a portfolio view on this. So I've narrowed it down to 4 signals. These are priced by people with real money on the line. They don't lie. 1. Ship insurance premiums through Hormuz This is the single best signal. Lloyd's underwriters have billions at stake on every pricing call. Before the war, insuring a tanker through Hormuz cost 0.25% of the ship's value. Today it's 3.5–10% — and almost nobody is buying. A $100M tanker that cost $250K to insure now costs up to $10M. When this drops below 2%, the people with the most to lose are telling you it's getting safer. No press conference can replicate that. 2. How many ships are actually crossing Every ship carries a GPS tracker (AIS). You can count exactly how many cross Hormuz each day. Before: 100+. Now: 8. That's a 92% collapse. You can't spin a ship being somewhere it isn't. Iran is letting some Chinese and Indian ships through, but it's a trickle. When this number crosses 30–40, trade is resuming. You can track this free on the WTO Hormuz Trade Tracker. 3. Paper oil vs real oil This one most people miss entirely. Brent crude (the headline price) is at $112. But Dubai physical — what Asian buyers actually pay for delivered oil — is at $126. That's a $14 gap. It exists because Trump's comments keep pushing paper prices down. Traders call it jawboning. But the refiners buying cargo aren't getting any discount. If you're looking at Brent to assess India's oil bill, you're looking at the wrong number. 4. The mid-April cliff Multiple emergency measures expire around the same time. The 400 million barrel SPR release runs dry ~April 15. The US waiver letting India buy Russian crude expires. Formosa Plastics has declared force majeure from April 1. Right now these stopgaps are keeping the supply gap at ~5 mb/d. Without them, BCA Research estimates it doubles to 10 mb/d — the largest crude disruption ever. If Hormuz doesn't reopen by mid-April, we're in uncharted territory. Bottom line: track the insurance premium, the ship count, the paper-physical spread, and the April timeline. Everything else is noise.

@arthur0x It’s also because people here have started hoarding petrol and diesel.

The fuel shortage situation is getting worse even earlier than expected in wider Asia Pacific.

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