Samuel Doveri Vesterbye

‘#Turkey/#Türkiye 🇹🇷 in the New European Security Architecture’ is part of @EurLiberalForum’s annual security handbook. 🔟-point 🇪🇺🇹🇷 summary🧵below👇⤵️ *This publication is part of @ALDEParty’s think-tank which provides advise to 🇪🇺 liberal parties & politicians: @EmmanuelMacron @ilhankyuchyuk @alexanderdecroo @vestager @VeraJourova @KadriSimson @JanezLenarcic @dreynders @hildevautmans @anestorasEN @LYMEC @DKaddik . . .👇⤵️

Great pleasure to chair a panel on maritime security and supply chain resilience in the #Gulf at the Paris Forum for Defence and Strategy #PDSF2026 In a hyperconnected networked world order, we all have a stake in securing interdependent supply chains. Europe has an opportunity to lead on a multilateral solution for the Strait of #Hormuz

Europe has entered a new geoeconomic era. EU–Türkiye relations, however, remain governed by a framework designed for a different era. Our new piece (@gmfus ) with @ProfErdalYalcin outlines a realistic reform path. gmfus.org/news/eu-turkiy…

🪖 % Willing to Fight for Their Country 🇹🇷 Turkey — 88% 🇦🇱 Albania — 69% 🇸🇪 Sweden — 66% 🇫🇮 Finland — 64% 🇲🇪 Montenegro — 63% 🇬🇷 Greece — 63% 🇳🇴 Norway — 61% 🇱🇹 Lithuania — 52% 🇵🇱 Poland — 49% 🇸🇮 Slovenia — 49% 🇪🇪 Estonia — 45% 🇨🇦 Canada — 39% 🇱🇻 Latvia — 37% 🇺🇸 USA — 37% 🇭🇺 Hungary — 33% 🇨🇿 Czechia — 33% 🇳🇱 Netherlands — 30% 🇩🇪 Germany — 27% 🇮🇹 Italy — 25% 🇸🇰 Slovakia — 25% Source: 2025 survey by Riga Stradins University & Center for Geopolitical Studies Riga (nationally representative; via FPRI). Over 31,000 respondents across 20 NATO allies surveyed

Azerbaijan has broadly agreed to take on a transit role for Armenia since last year and is already serving as a transit route for wheat from Kazakhstan and Russia.  rferl.org/a/armenia-azer…

#BREAKING Iran war is a politically 'disastrous mistake,' an 'avoidable, unnecessary' war, German President Steinmeier says

It is so difficult to understand why Trump launched his Iran operation - an op so clearly damaging to US national interests, the global economy, Ukraine and the US’ closest allies in Europe and the Gulf. Then there is this….

💸 Ships are returning to the Strait of Hormuz! The price — $2 million Iran set that price for passage, and shipping companies appear to have agreed and are paying.

It is a great pleasure to attend the Italy-Central Asia (C5)-Azerbaijan Forum on "#Innovation, #Regenerative Agriculture, and #Digitalization for #Sustainable Agro-Ecosystems" in #Tashkent, #Uzbekistan. The strong political relations and economic capabilities provide a solid foundation to achieve remarkable results with these countries. Our intention is to adopt best practices from leading countries and collaborate with our international partners to integrate innovations. The complex issues like digitalization, climate-friendly, and smart agriculture cannot be accomplished by any single country alone. Therefore, strengthening our collaboration through agricultural #diplomacy and enhanced international cooperation is of utmost importance.

#BREAKING German President Steinmeier calls for strategic ties with emerging powers, including Türkiye, Brazil, South Africa

Operation Epic Fury shows the price that America would pay if it fully withdrew its military presence from Europe. U.S. bombers, drones and ships have been fueled, armed and launched via bases in the U.K., Germany, Portugal, Italy, France and Greece, officials say. Attack drones are being directed from a sprawling U.S. base at Ramstein in Germany, the nerve center of America’s operations against Iran, according to German and U.S. officials. Heavy B-1 bombers have been photographed loading munitions and fuel at RAF Fairford in the U.K. The USS Gerald R. Ford, the world’s largest aircraft carrier, is currently docked at a naval base in Crete wsj.com/world/europe/e…

During 2022 the LNG vessels were pivoting to Europe and away from Asia.

🇦🇲🇪🇺 Armenia has received €1.5 billion from the European Union’s €2.6 billion assistance package. Out of the €2.6 billion funding package announced by the #EU in 2021, #Armenia has already received and begun utilizing €1.496 billion, according to Deputy Foreign Minister #VahanKostanyan. The bulk of the funds has been provided in the form of loans and grants, including through the European Investment Bank — for the construction of the #NorthSouth highway and concessional lending to Armenian banks — as well as with the participation of the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development. Under the “Resilience and Growth” program, with a total budget of €270 million, around €210 million has already been approved for various projects. #SouthCaucasus #Europe #MiddleEast

It is said that NATO was saved at The Hague summit last summer. I guess NATO will have to be saved again at the Ankara summit this summer.

Armenia: Dialogue with #Türkiye has matured for diplomatic ties and full border opening armenpress.am/en/article/124…

#Armenia's Foreign Minister says relations with #Turkiye have matured enough to establish diplomatic relations and a full opening of the border Ararat Mirzoyan made the comments to the Armenian Parliament's Committee on Foreign Relations, as per Armenian media

A Turkish source told MEE that Ankara is attempting to build a unified front in negotiations to counterbalance Israeli influence, working with European, Gulf, and other regional actors to help end the conflict middleeasteye.pulse.ly/hoi3dg7tok

82 state projects are currently being implemented in Tajikistan, with a total value of around $4.67 billion per Tajik media. 📊 More than 70% of the funding comes from international development banks — not the state. Main contributors: — World Bank — $1.7 billion (36.9%) — Asian Development Bank (ADB) — $914.7 million (19.5%) — European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) — $658.1 million (14.1%) For comparison: 🇹🇯 Tajikistan’s own contribution — $151 million (3.2%) 🇨🇳 China — $194.9 million (4.2%) At the same time, Tajikistan attracted around $7 billion in total investments in 2025 (+35%).

Whatever #Israel 🇮🇱 was accused of “cooking with #Kurds in Syria 🇸🇾” its now being accused of having “on the menu in #Iran 🇮🇷”👇⤵️ 🔸Several sources claim (see below from expert media to mainstream) that Israel 🇮🇱 is “actively fermenting unrest inside Iran 🇮🇷” through Kurdish & other groups with the aim of fostering separatism that can spillover into neighbouring countries: including #Türkiye 🇹🇷. 🔸 Kurdish militant groups have historically been weaponised for the purpose of regional and great power politics. Most recently, against Türkiye 🇹🇷 (but not exclusively), with huge death tools and injustices on all sides. 🔸With Türkiye 🇹🇷 playing an important role in Syria 🇸🇾: the Kurdish question has been changing rapidly: an on-going peace process is underway inside Türkiye 🇹🇷 as a consequence of Syria 🇸🇾. 🔸 “The United States 🇺🇸 is scapegoating blame onto Israel 🇮🇱, but Trump & some close advisors are making plans to blackmail Türkiye 🇹🇷 and appeal to Israel 🇮🇱. It’s a classic move” said three separate foreign-policy-experts on condition of anonymity. Meanwhile, Turkish-Kurdish DEM (Demirtas party) calls Israel’s 🇮🇱 and US 🇺🇸 attack on Iran “imperialistic”. 🔸France 🇫🇷🇪🇺 has taken an unusually strong stance: “Iran 🇮🇷 did not attack first (US & Israel did) but we send military into Gulf to protect European infrastructure, citizens & oil/gas/trade.” 🔸Iran 🇮🇷 did launch rockets against UK bases in Cyprus 🇨🇾🇪🇺. @RestIsPolitics have taken a very critical view of UK 🇬🇧 PM position of support to US 🇺🇸 (he supported France first; then was forced to switch to US). 🔸Numerous well-quoted sources (from US, see below) indicate that the “mission against Iran 🇮🇷” circumvents Europe-Türkiye-Gulf, while promoting symbiosis between 🇺🇸🇮🇱Trump-Netanyahu relations reinforcing existing 🇺🇸🇮🇱 civil, economic and military-intel relations. 🔸Even Azerbaijan 🇦🇿 experts - notoriously pro-Israeli 🇮🇱 - have been very critical of this mission against Iran 🇮🇷. 🔸Millions of Iranians are happy with the death of leadership of 🇮🇷 Islamic Republic, but many also know US 🇺🇸 won’t “install their man in power”. Most likely “another Maduro Scenario” won’t help people on ground but risks escalation and instability; only supporting Israel 🇮🇱 & US interests. 🔸It’s important to remember that Democrats and pro-Trump foreign policy advisors are releasing info against one another. That’s why these Trump-plans are being revealed, due to internal US 🇺🇸 politics and leaking. 🔸It begs some questions: How wise is it for Türkiye 🇹🇷 to be on the Board of Peace? How reliable is it to rely on US 🇺🇸 for Caucasus peace under TRIPP? And what about US 🇺🇸 new energy (LNG) and defence relations between Ankara & Washington? 🔸In Europe it also opens questions: Will traditionally-pro-Kurdish countries consider “not supporting Israeli-Kurdish separatism” guided by Netanyahu and Trump and instead aim for improved relations with Türkiye 🇹🇷? That’s also an on-going discussion that’s important since the 🇪🇺🇹🇷 defence, trade & connectivity climate is far better than a few years ago. 🔸And while this is happening : France 🇫🇷🇪🇺 is taking a new nuclear role (originally reserved only for US 🇺🇸 ) for the Continent. Analysts are questioning: “can Washington truly be a credible NATO mediator (for example) between Greece 🇬🇷 and Türkiye 🇹🇷 in this new environment?”. 📎Please read @BrookingsFP article for more context: brookings.edu/articles/after… 📎Please read @EurasiaGroup @gbrew24 post and reference to @axios article for more context: axios.com/2026/03/02/tru… 📎 Please read mainstream leaks on @CNN for “Kurds, Israel & Trump Plan” context: edition.cnn.com/2026/03/03/pol…

Franco-Turkish 🇫🇷🇪🇺🇹🇷 rapprochement👇 🔺New security-consensus & direct engagement between @RTErdogan & @EmmanuelMacron on #Palestine 🇵🇸 and #Syria 🇸🇾 is facilitating better relations between #France 🇫🇷 & #Turkiye 🇹🇷. 🔺Now other areas of potential cooperation are also being explored 🔺Counter-offers are coming indirectly to Paris & Ankara from US 🇺🇸 & Israel 🇮🇱 🔺Below you can read my @X analysis & predictions on 🇫🇷🇪🇺🇹🇷 relations dating back to 2022 and up until 2025👇 2025 x.com/samueljsdv/sta… x.com/samueljsdv/sta… x.com/samueljsdv/sta… x.com/samueljsdv/sta… x.com/samueljsdv/sta… 2024 x.com/samueljsdv/sta… x.com/samueljsdv/sta… x.com/samueljsdv/sta… 2023 x.com/samueljsdv/sta… x.com/samueljsdv/sta… 2022 x.com/samueljsdv/sta…

3️⃣ #CentralAsia, however, isn't a "problem free business partner" for the #EU 🇪🇺 nor #Turkiye 🇹🇷. A functioning 🇪🇺 Global Gateway East ("#MiddleCorridor") depends on conditions: Firstly, an improved 🇪🇺🇹🇷 #EU #Turkiye relationship is key in order to properly coordinate supply chains into #CentralAsia. The 🇪🇺🇹🇷 Customs Union should be updated and technically better integrated to fit supply chain expansions into Central Asia and new EPCAs with #Kazakhstan 🇰🇿 and #Uzbekistan 🇺🇿 as well as agreements with #Kyrgyzstan 🇰🇬, #Tajikistan 🇹🇯 and #Turkmenistan 🇹🇲. Secondly, the #EU 🇪🇺 should provide more economic firepower and security-oriented measures to ease investors and attract more funds to the region. Business investments are risk averse by nature and depend on stability and government guarantees. This is already happening with #EU 🇪🇺 and Member State (🇫🇷🇩🇪) involvement in #CentralAsia, but more is needed especially in terms of countering disinformation, #Russian aggressiveness, critical infrastructure security, digital/satellites, cyber support, border support, anti-radicalisation measures, information satefy/GDPR/DSA, security sector/police reform and conflict resolution mechanisms. Thirdly, a peace agreement between  🇦🇲🇦🇿 #Azerbaijan-#Armenia is mandatory with supply-chain hub guarantees for the South #Caucasus. Again, EU-Turkiye 🇪🇺🇹🇷 cooperation is needed. [END].