ScalyWaggington⚔️

@BoringBiz_ Insider trading should be allowed. The primarily function of the market is information clearing, not “fair” outcomes. The point is not to have a fair game. The point is the figure out what things are worth or what is going to happen as quickly and accurately as possible.

The biggest difference I see between traditional betting markets and prediction markets is who your counter party is on the trades At a casino, every bet you make is against the house. That is why there are hard limits on bet sizes and stop gaps to prevent someone who is winning too much Prediction markets sit as the middle man between two counterparties, who are both users of the platform This creates fundamentally different incentives across the two, which I think plays out in how regulators think about these platforms However, some of the problems absolutely need a fix. The two most notable, in my mind, are > insider trading rules > preventing retail gambling addiction The first platform that can figure out how to solve for these fully will win the market just through regulatory moat alone

The mistake you are making is you are conflating “what a lender would think” and what something is worth. The claim was “the problem: it's not really worth $50B". This is distinct from the claim that “one would have to take a haircut when leveraging the asset”. Those are not the same thing.

no it’s not, not sure you are thinking through this like a lender would if Jensen wanted to take a loan against his full Nvidia position, the lender would assess the health of the collateral. Because if Jensen refuses to pay, then they have to sell the collateral. Same issue comes up that saylor has with his btc stack not being worth the full amount The lender would take into account things like volatility and liquidity, essential “how much capital can I get back with this collateral over time” and set an interest rate and LTV accordingly They don’t assume the whole thing can be liquidated in a margin call at market rate Because it can’t

strategy holds $50 billion worth of btc the problem: it's not really worth $50B if @saylor ever tries to sell, he'll get no more than $20B for it. probably less every additional dollar he puts into btc from now on is lost forever. he already has more btc than he can ever sell

@cptgrumpus @udiWertheimer @saylor Incorrect. The mechanics of leveraging a position and the value of the underlying position are two separate things. It is shifting the goal posts or merely poorly organized thinking.

@ScalyWaggington @udiWertheimer @saylor He’s not shifting the goal posts the nvidia example is extremely relevant and on topic

@redpillclipperx @MyronGainesX @myrongainesclip @WyronGaines

🔥🚨CAMPUS: @MyronGainesX Speaks On The Black Community To A Young African American Who Strives To Be Great! "I'm Glad We Have Young Brothers Like You Fixing It" "No More Niggatry" Says Myron. #niggatry #blackfatigue #viral @myrongainesclip @WyronGaines

Well then argue that point instead of shifting the goal posts. The fact that selling a large amount of a thing would move the market in that thing is not an interesting or inciteful observation. That observation generally applies to pretty much everything in a market. Did you intend to make such an empty and meaningless claim?

@ScalyWaggington @saylor i stand by it, it's not worth $50B

@udiWertheimer @saylor "the problem: it's not really worth $50B" First of all let's acknowledge that this was your claim and you are blatantly shifting the goal posts. A cheap sleight of hand. 🙄

@ScalyWaggington @saylor if jensen tried to take a loan with his 4% of nvidia being the ONLY collateral, he'd have to accept a very large discount on the value of that collateral, yes! saylor wants to collateralize $21B additional STRC issuance with the 4% of btc he owns. that's madness.

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@Kalshi Aren't all of these rules simply limiting view expression and information access for poor people. Rich people are allowed to do all of this stuff.

Not all prediction markets are the same. Some are regulated in the United States. Some aren’t. Kalshi is. Rule #1: We ban insider trading. And we enforce it.

@Clav0Updates When @NickJFuentes ?

15 days into Clavicular’s “Mog World Order” 30-day streaming marathon, he’s already had: - 80k+ followers gained - 17.3k average viewers - 187.3k hours watched - 58.9k peak viewers With appearances from Blueface, N3on, Ryan Garcia, Akademiks, Ed Matthews, TJR, Androgenic, and more 🔥

@w_s_bitcoin @primal_app @spark @Breez_Tech What is your favorite wallet rn? I'm liking cake wallet.

@primal_app @spark @Breez_Tech And if not, did y’all implement it in the private way or the way where anyone can look up your accounts entire history? Because that’s just as shitty as requiring kyc.

The new Primal Wallet is here

@ConvoswColeman @coldxman @tylercowen The problem is @tylercowen has misidentified what "basic rights" are and has a typically fukuyaman imperialist outlook.

When is “wokeness” actually right? @TylerCowen: “wokeness” can be useful in countries where basic rights are lacking, despite its overuse in the U.S. Its value depends on context.

@KlonnyPin_Gosch @pizzintwatch @PenPizzaReport I think we need a strip clubs near military bases index.

This stripper has singlehandedly caused an OPSEC crisis and panic amongst ex-military careerists. OSINT strippers, hold the line! Double your Army brass seduction efforts!

@TMZ It's funny because black people are in fact disproportionately violent and criminal to an astounding degree!

Florida candidate James Fishback says he prefers playing Black characters in "GTA."

@milessuter @CashApp When will this be the default payment mechanism?

This feature will start to roll out tomorrow, allowing you to pay from @CashApp over bitcoin rails using your USD balance - no bitcoin required. This dramatically opens up the aperture of who can pay with bitcoin to our entire monthly user base of 58m - normies included.

It is likely your American city has a sister city in Japan. Check!

@grok why has my timeline stopped auto translating? i have to click the translate link. half my timeline is in japanese

Japan is amazing but we are not perfect. For example, one of our companies made halal soy sauce... 😐

@vrilliumlive @Whats_Newsss It really is hard to escape the fundamental assumptions of the pervasive leftist culture. No, a nation is not interchangeable in this way. Equality is not a real thing.

@Whats_Newsss If they’re blacks and not African, yes But that’s not possible because their population is so small

@vrilliumlive If America was 90% black, would it still be America?

@danielsgoldman @ylecun @elonmusk This idea that there must be absolutely zero responsibility associated with the right to vote is really stupid. Expecting people to identify themselves is perfectly reasonable.

This is such a dumb tweet @elonmusk. Right wing Heritage found 10 non-citizens votes out of 2 billion since 1992. The threat to our democracy is the SAVE Act, which denies voting rights to millions. Issue a free national ID to every citizen and I’ll happily support voter ID.