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I rarely post about the “price” of Bitcoin (what should actually be referred to as its exchange rate). However, the following needs to be said…
A number of influencers are calling for Bitcoin to revisit old price ranges—$60,000 USD or lower—based on historical chart patterns and past cycles. That logic assumes the market and the landscape of stakeholders involved in Bitcoin hasn’t changed. It has.
Public companies like @Strategy, @Strive, and @Metaplanet (to name a few) are absorbing BTC supply at scale. At the same time, institutions like @MorganStanley, @GoldmanSachs, and @CharlesSchwab are now actively promoting Bitcoin and Bitcoin ETFs to their clients. This latter camp of entrants is just getting started. We’re early days.
These three firms alone collectively serve tens of millions of clients, employ tens of thousands of advisors, and oversee tens of trillions in assets (yes, trillions with a “t”). Even a 1% allocation across a fraction of their clients represents hundreds of billions of capital that will be allocated to Bitcoin through ETFs and custodied spot BTC.
Against that backdrop, waiting for price ranges from past cycle charts is not a neutral strategy—it’s a major risk. Not just a personal risk, but a risk for the greater purpose and potential of Bitcoin.
The deeper risk isn’t just missing “price” upside. It’s being structurally marginalized. As institutions accumulate, individuals who intend to hold Bitcoin in self-custody may find themselves priced out or pushed toward custodial exposure—undermining the very premise of Bitcoin as a bearer asset held by individuals, families and groups around the world.
There is a small chance Bitcoin revisits sub-$70,000 USD levels. But planning around that outcome carries far greater risk than the marginal gains it might offer. For those committed to self-custody, the priority should be clear: allocate NOW.
If prices dip later, treat it as a small personal sacrifice—a kind of “charitable tax” paid in service of a broader goal: preserving a widely distributed, individually-held monetary network. That cost, if it comes, will be temporary. The structural forces in motion point toward significantly higher prices over time. Maybe in a year or two…but quite possibly in the much nearer future.
The window for broad individual ownership of Bitcoin remains open—but the size of that window may start closing at an accelerating pace very soon.
With a large enough proportion of the total supply of Bitcoin held in self-custody by individuals, families, groups and small businesses around the world this remains “the people’s network, the people’s money”. Let’s all do our part to keep it that way!
cc @BullBitcoin_ @bitcoinwell @shakepay @River @Swan @Strike @relai_app @hodlhodl
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