Greg Scott 🌊📘

@alpha_pls Patiently waiting

No one likes being bearish, but there are times when "defensive pessimism" (as I call it) is the only rational stance. All the outcomes before Trump's speech pointed to bearish outcomes of varying degrees. The reality of where we are: • The conflict will last AT LEAST another 2-3 weeks (hopeful scenario), which means that the Strait of Hormuz is still closed, which would be 46-53 days closed. • Approximately 20–21 million barrels per day (bpd) flow through the Strait. If closed for 50 days, the cumulative deficit would be over 1 billion barrels. • The current closure of the Strait of Hormuz is officially the largest oil supply disruption in human history. It dwarfs the 1973 Oil Embargo (which saw a peak cut of ~4.3 million bpd) and the 1979 Iranian Revolution (~5.6 million bpd). • Inflation will rise over the coming months. Expect headline CPI to surge by 2-3% over the coming months as energy costs filter through the supply chain. • Central banks are trapped. They will be paused (maybe hike), and very concerned to not stoke the flames of inflation this year. 1970s-style inflationary spiral is embedded in the psyche of many at the Central Banks. • As energy costs act as a "tax" on consumers and collateral volatility rises, liquidity will tighten aggressively. The market has remained very optimistic/complacent and hasn't priced in the above. I think the nothing ever happens crowd are wrong here. In the same way that crypto participants were very complacent for months following its cyclical top, stock market participants are doing the same. Once the market prices in the reality that is unfolding and some of the worser case scenarios (the Strait being closed for even longer than another 2-3 weeks) then I think you will find many opportunities out there.

@PostyXBT Crank the grandparents up to 100x

Good morning lads Two days of solo parenting ahead May have to leverage the grandparents

@Brian_A_E @AviFelman 😂

There is something poignant about racing to the stars while battling on earth. it's very mythic of us, prometheus-like, liver eating back home but advancing our civilization up high

@Pickle_cRypto The answer is no

@blknoiz06 Americans are loose. Japanese are disciplined

why are cities in japan so much cleaner than large us cities like new york?

Things no one wants to hear: -There will be no meaningful rallies while Oil >$100/bl -Private credit exacerbates the current energy crisis -Rising unemployment and risk of reinflation continues. -The second order effects of the war wont disappear for months...some for years. You're better off in cash waiting to buy blood 🍌

@PostyXBT People don't like being underwater (I am people)

One thing I've never really understood is the obsession of catching the very bottom It's super unrealistic for most and doesn't actually matter People end up waiting for a bottom, price goes up, they never pull the trigger and end up with no position

@alpha_pls So basically it always ends up lower. I can't really see how this doesn't resolve lower eventually

@Scotters333 Range of outcomes: • Big nuke and some great volatility for short term trades • Relief rally because of some perceived good news, and then we go lower later as the damage is done Lower.

Some observations: The TACO trade is dead. The algos rigged up to that are being killed. The market no longer believes Trump's lies. You are starting to see real world stories across Asia and Australia about oil shortages, fuel rationing, and shutdowns, which is adding to the market fear. Every day the Strait of Hormuz stays shut from here the Oil price rises, and those on the other side of the trade start to give up. We had crowded bullish positioning by institutional money in equities, and that is on the cusp of flipping as they depend on economic data coming in for their decision making. This is how crashes happen. Trump now must escalate the conflict in order to open the Strait. He needs to use the military to get it done. I don't see that he has any other option. Even if he steps back, Iran have no reason to open the Strait out of kindness. They want real concessions. I don't see Trump exiting and giving Iran want they want. His ego is far too big. Almost seems to me like the best case scenario is boots on the ground and fairly instant military success. That is still bad for risk and drives oil up in the short term. The worst case scenario is drawn out conflict, with the US military in Iran with no victory in sight. Markets are not prepared for that outcome. Of course this too shall pass, but worth keeping your eyes open here as we may get some extraordinary buying opportunities should certain events play out.

@insomniacxbt That might as well be the btc chart. They all look identical

any consolidation below this level seems bad most alts look like this

@0xbags @Pickle_cRypto Bags with the elite tier shit posting these days

my cex transaction history vs. my onchain transaction history

@Route2FI @AltcoinSherpa Spot on. Sad reality is a majority of the world hates their job. I never actually twigged what your name meant though until now 😂 just thought it was something to do with defi or some shit

People fantasize about hitting the freedom money and then disappearing to live life, but the ones who would actually have disappeared to live life will almost never make it. Why? Because you don’t wake up one day with 8 figs because you “balanced work and life” perfectly. You get there because you’re a little broken in the head and actually like the game more than the prize. In the same way, bodybuilders don’t quit the gym the day they look shredded. People with real money all still work in some form. Investing, building, trading, whatever. When I talk to friends with safe office jobs, they’ll say something like: “If I were pulling what you make, I’d just be on holiday all year.” That’s exactly why they never get there. The second money appears in their head, they’re already planning how to burn it on vacations and luxury items, and end up right back where they started. It feels a bit controversial to say this, especially from me, Route2FI lol, as you know what the initials stand for, but yeah, I used to think the same way: dreaming of financial independence so I could basically do nothing. Looking back, the problem wasn’t that I hated work. It was that I hadn’t chosen my work. Once you find something you think is fun and you feel good at, you don’t fantasize about quitting. You just want to keep playing.

@0xbags Delete

"I wonder why the market is giving us so much time to buy the bottom"

@ZeMirch @blknoiz06 Yeeeeah man's in too deep 😂

if i were to give my unsolicited opinion it sounds like trump legitimately wants to bail but iran has a firm grasp on his nutsack

@Crypto_McKenna 250

A Framework I employ for capital allocation is thinking about markets like I would for a sine wave. Market equilibrium is when the amplitude of the sine wave is equal to zero. Then the market has periods of large disequilibrium which is where the money is to be made both for longs and shorts. I always try to think on the larger picture where do we sit within the sine wave. It's important because there a million reasons to not buy a market bottom when it approaches with bad news making individuals reluctant to allocate. But I do think we sit between the 240-300 range which is the optimal time to allocate for the long term and recognising navigating the trough takes time and is often an uninteresting period of the market.

@ColdBloodShill Mmmm I think the same

Beginning to think that the very obvious insider trading occurring is because they're trying to line their pockets as much as possible because they know how bad it's going to get.

@AltcoinSherpa Fucking Barron Trump at it again

what did he know...

@Pickle_cRypto Fuck that guy

@PeterSchiff Welcome to the jungle

Selling gold because rising inflation will keep the Fed from cutting interest rates, when rates are already too low, makes no sense. Falling real rates are bullish for gold. It's the stock market that needs rate cuts. That's why it makes no sense that stocks are down so little.