SearchingSoul

5.5K posts

SearchingSoul

SearchingSoul

@SearchingSoul81

Katılım Şubat 2016
1.1K Takip Edilen169 Takipçiler
SearchingSoul
SearchingSoul@SearchingSoul81·
On 14 March you were sharing tweets of Ramdeo Agarwal saying its good time to Buy. NIFTY was 23151 on that day. I had said that we are going much lower because of Geopolitical reasons. If Nifty goes below 21000, most stocks will also be down 10-15. So is it a smart idea to Buy now Or wait till war ends and Buy stocks when they are 10-15% more cheaper? My 14 March Tweet 👉 x.com/SearchingSoul8…
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Safir
Safir@safiranand·
The market saw its worst month since Covid March 2020. Now come to think for yourself if it compares well. A total shut down with only essential services or a situation of escalation in energy prices vs a functioning world.
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SearchingSoul
SearchingSoul@SearchingSoul81·
- Trump wants to deploy ground forces. - To reduce any opposition to this decision from American public, Trump is doing drama of negotiations, so as to say that O tried my level best to give peace a chance. - But presence of Pakistan, and absence of Qatar, as a mediator is a giveaway that this is Trump's drama and only fool will believe its credibility
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SearchingSoul
SearchingSoul@SearchingSoul81·
@chirag @_amitbehere India's imports from China (in Billion $) 2000 - 1.47 2005 - 10.16 2010 - 40.8 2015 - 61.5 2025 - 123.5 Guess this settles the arguement.
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Chirag
Chirag@chirag·
@_amitbehere What you say is correct. But that's not what I'm saying. Someday we'll have a non-dhando govt. This is for that day.
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Chirag
Chirag@chirag·
India needs to do the same.
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SearchingSoul
SearchingSoul@SearchingSoul81·
Your assumptions are wrong because: - You are assuming that escalation matrix is controlled by Trump. Guess that is not the case. - If Trump controlled the escalation matrix, he would not be begging, requesting and threatening Iran (as well his own allies) about opening of Strait. While Iran is standing firm about not opening the Strait. - War was started by Israel and Trump. But how and whn the war ends, will be decided by Iran. - Trump and Israel are claiming for the last 3 weeks that Iran's military power is destroyed. How true are these claims? All got exposed in last night's attack on Dimona and Arad by Iran. - Trump is desperate and it shows in his comments. And Iran also notices it.
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Mark Dubowitz
Mark Dubowitz@mdubowitz·
The regime still hasn’t internalized that President Trump will out-escalate them if he thinks escalation is required to force de-escalation. He is not a conventional Western politician, and Tehran repeatedly miscalculates because it keeps assuming he is.
The White House@WhiteHouse

🚨 “If Iran doesn’t FULLY OPEN, WITHOUT THREAT, the Strait of Hormuz, within 48 HOURS from this exact point in time, the United States of America will hit and obliterate their various POWER PLANTS, STARTING WITH THE BIGGEST ONE FIRST…” - President DONALD J. TRUMP

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SearchingSoul
SearchingSoul@SearchingSoul81·
- But why is Trump so desperate to get the Strait opened? - Because once the Strait is open, oil flows become normal, and Trump will declare victory and run away from his self created mess. - But now Iran also knows that Strait is Trump's weakness and reason for desperation - Iran will not open it till the time its demands are not met - What about the 48 hour deadline? Trump has changed his stance so many times, that changing one more time would not surprise anyone 🙄
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SearchingSoul
SearchingSoul@SearchingSoul81·
@KobeissiLetter Basically Trump ia desperate to declare victory and end the war while Iran is no mood to give any concessions and is ready to fight for months. Trump is now in a difficult position and that is why his statements change every hour.
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The Kobeissi Letter
The Kobeissi Letter@KobeissiLetter·
President Trump over the last 36 hours: Friday, 3:40 PM ET: "I don't want to do a ceasefire with Iran." Friday, 5:15 PM ET: The US is "considering winding down" the war with Iran. Today, 2:00 PM ET: Axios reports Trump is planning "peace talks." Now: "If Iran doesn’t open the Strait of Hormuz within 48 hours the US will obliterate Iran's power plants." What's happening behind the scenes?
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SearchingSoul
SearchingSoul@SearchingSoul81·
@shashj Is US removing sanctions on Iran to hurt China? 👇 x.com/SearchingSoul8…
SearchingSoul@SearchingSoul81

Real reason why US lifted sanctions on Iran and why it could back-fire: - In last 30 years, US imposed multiple sanctions on Iranian Oil, which made it almost impossible for Iran to sell its oil in open market - China lapped up this opportunity and for last few years almost whole of Iranian Oil was sold to China, at deep discount to the market price. China reaped huge benefits from cheap Iranian oil. - Last year, US and China were engaged in battle of wits on tariffs and China imposed ban on export of rare-earths. - US was in a spot and had no lever to counter China's rare-earth ban. So Trump backed-off on tariffs, temporarily. - US strategists thought that if China will use rare-earth as lever, then US will use Oil as counter-lever. - So US started capturing world oil supply. - First step in that direction was capturing Venezuela. - Then sanctions on Russian oil was removed, which meant China lost another source of cheap oil - Now only Iran was left from where China was getting deep-discounted oil. - With removing of sanctions on Iranian oil, US is betting that Iran will be tempted to sell its oil to other countries, at much higher prices, thereby depriving China from its last source of cheap oil - Now it can back-fire on US also. Because removing of sanctions and higher oil prices will be an incentive for Iran to keep the closure of Strait for much longer duration. - Also what if US is unable to control Iranian oil? My fear - it will destroy it rather than it falling in to China;s hands. - Iran is just a pawn in great-game of chess between US and China.

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SearchingSoul
SearchingSoul@SearchingSoul81·
@InvesysCapital Is Iran just a pawn (and collateral damage) in US - China conflict? 👇 x.com/SearchingSoul8…
SearchingSoul@SearchingSoul81

Real reason why US lifted sanctions on Iran and why it could back-fire: - In last 30 years, US imposed multiple sanctions on Iranian Oil, which made it almost impossible for Iran to sell its oil in open market - China lapped up this opportunity and for last few years almost whole of Iranian Oil was sold to China, at deep discount to the market price. China reaped huge benefits from cheap Iranian oil. - Last year, US and China were engaged in battle of wits on tariffs and China imposed ban on export of rare-earths. - US was in a spot and had no lever to counter China's rare-earth ban. So Trump backed-off on tariffs, temporarily. - US strategists thought that if China will use rare-earth as lever, then US will use Oil as counter-lever. - So US started capturing world oil supply. - First step in that direction was capturing Venezuela. - Then sanctions on Russian oil was removed, which meant China lost another source of cheap oil - Now only Iran was left from where China was getting deep-discounted oil. - With removing of sanctions on Iranian oil, US is betting that Iran will be tempted to sell its oil to other countries, at much higher prices, thereby depriving China from its last source of cheap oil - Now it can back-fire on US also. Because removing of sanctions and higher oil prices will be an incentive for Iran to keep the closure of Strait for much longer duration. - Also what if US is unable to control Iranian oil? My fear - it will destroy it rather than it falling in to China;s hands. - Iran is just a pawn in great-game of chess between US and China.

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SearchingSoul
SearchingSoul@SearchingSoul81·
@Glenn_Diesen I think US is using Iran to hurt China 👇 x.com/SearchingSoul8…
SearchingSoul@SearchingSoul81

Real reason why US lifted sanctions on Iran and why it could back-fire: - In last 30 years, US imposed multiple sanctions on Iranian Oil, which made it almost impossible for Iran to sell its oil in open market - China lapped up this opportunity and for last few years almost whole of Iranian Oil was sold to China, at deep discount to the market price. China reaped huge benefits from cheap Iranian oil. - Last year, US and China were engaged in battle of wits on tariffs and China imposed ban on export of rare-earths. - US was in a spot and had no lever to counter China's rare-earth ban. So Trump backed-off on tariffs, temporarily. - US strategists thought that if China will use rare-earth as lever, then US will use Oil as counter-lever. - So US started capturing world oil supply. - First step in that direction was capturing Venezuela. - Then sanctions on Russian oil was removed, which meant China lost another source of cheap oil - Now only Iran was left from where China was getting deep-discounted oil. - With removing of sanctions on Iranian oil, US is betting that Iran will be tempted to sell its oil to other countries, at much higher prices, thereby depriving China from its last source of cheap oil - Now it can back-fire on US also. Because removing of sanctions and higher oil prices will be an incentive for Iran to keep the closure of Strait for much longer duration. - Also what if US is unable to control Iranian oil? My fear - it will destroy it rather than it falling in to China;s hands. - Iran is just a pawn in great-game of chess between US and China.

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Glenn Diesen
Glenn Diesen@Glenn_Diesen·
Iran's strategy appears to work as the US must lift sanctions on Iranian oil to stabilise markets. If Iran gets to tax countries that host US bases for using the Strait of Hormuz, then we are looking at an Iranian victory.
Glenn Diesen tweet media
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SearchingSoul@SearchingSoul81·
@cyalm People are wrong in assuming Iran is the target. Real target is China 👇 x.com/SearchingSoul8…
SearchingSoul@SearchingSoul81

Real reason why US lifted sanctions on Iran and why it could back-fire: - In last 30 years, US imposed multiple sanctions on Iranian Oil, which made it almost impossible for Iran to sell its oil in open market - China lapped up this opportunity and for last few years almost whole of Iranian Oil was sold to China, at deep discount to the market price. China reaped huge benefits from cheap Iranian oil. - Last year, US and China were engaged in battle of wits on tariffs and China imposed ban on export of rare-earths. - US was in a spot and had no lever to counter China's rare-earth ban. So Trump backed-off on tariffs, temporarily. - US strategists thought that if China will use rare-earth as lever, then US will use Oil as counter-lever. - So US started capturing world oil supply. - First step in that direction was capturing Venezuela. - Then sanctions on Russian oil was removed, which meant China lost another source of cheap oil - Now only Iran was left from where China was getting deep-discounted oil. - With removing of sanctions on Iranian oil, US is betting that Iran will be tempted to sell its oil to other countries, at much higher prices, thereby depriving China from its last source of cheap oil - Now it can back-fire on US also. Because removing of sanctions and higher oil prices will be an incentive for Iran to keep the closure of Strait for much longer duration. - Also what if US is unable to control Iranian oil? My fear - it will destroy it rather than it falling in to China;s hands. - Iran is just a pawn in great-game of chess between US and China.

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cyril almeida
cyril almeida@cyalm·
Iran oil… utter arrogance and repugnance of US sanctions regime…
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SearchingSoul
SearchingSoul@SearchingSoul81·
@Glenn_Diesen No, removing of sanctions is not to help Iran but to hurt China 👇 x.com/SearchingSoul8…
SearchingSoul@SearchingSoul81

Real reason why US lifted sanctions on Iran and why it could back-fire: - In last 30 years, US imposed multiple sanctions on Iranian Oil, which made it almost impossible for Iran to sell its oil in open market - China lapped up this opportunity and for last few years almost whole of Iranian Oil was sold to China, at deep discount to the market price. China reaped huge benefits from cheap Iranian oil. - Last year, US and China were engaged in battle of wits on tariffs and China imposed ban on export of rare-earths. - US was in a spot and had no lever to counter China's rare-earth ban. So Trump backed-off on tariffs, temporarily. - US strategists thought that if China will use rare-earth as lever, then US will use Oil as counter-lever. - So US started capturing world oil supply. - First step in that direction was capturing Venezuela. - Then sanctions on Russian oil was removed, which meant China lost another source of cheap oil - Now only Iran was left from where China was getting deep-discounted oil. - With removing of sanctions on Iranian oil, US is betting that Iran will be tempted to sell its oil to other countries, at much higher prices, thereby depriving China from its last source of cheap oil - Now it can back-fire on US also. Because removing of sanctions and higher oil prices will be an incentive for Iran to keep the closure of Strait for much longer duration. - Also what if US is unable to control Iranian oil? My fear - it will destroy it rather than it falling in to China;s hands. - Iran is just a pawn in great-game of chess between US and China.

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Glenn Diesen
Glenn Diesen@Glenn_Diesen·
Has Trump found an off-ramp by declaring victory and telling other nations to take care of the Strait of Hormuz? It could have been a solution, but Iran's objective now is to expel the US from the region so it is not attacked yet again. What will Trump do when Iran tells the Gulf States that they must expel US military bases and pay reparations to use the Strait of Hormuz? We are watching US strategic defeat being sold as victory.
Glenn Diesen tweet media
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SearchingSoul
SearchingSoul@SearchingSoul81·
@Amena__Bakr By removing sanctions on Iran, is China the real target? #iran #oott 👇 x.com/SearchingSoul8…
SearchingSoul@SearchingSoul81

Real reason why US lifted sanctions on Iran and why it could back-fire: - In last 30 years, US imposed multiple sanctions on Iranian Oil, which made it almost impossible for Iran to sell its oil in open market - China lapped up this opportunity and for last few years almost whole of Iranian Oil was sold to China, at deep discount to the market price. China reaped huge benefits from cheap Iranian oil. - Last year, US and China were engaged in battle of wits on tariffs and China imposed ban on export of rare-earths. - US was in a spot and had no lever to counter China's rare-earth ban. So Trump backed-off on tariffs, temporarily. - US strategists thought that if China will use rare-earth as lever, then US will use Oil as counter-lever. - So US started capturing world oil supply. - First step in that direction was capturing Venezuela. - Then sanctions on Russian oil was removed, which meant China lost another source of cheap oil - Now only Iran was left from where China was getting deep-discounted oil. - With removing of sanctions on Iranian oil, US is betting that Iran will be tempted to sell its oil to other countries, at much higher prices, thereby depriving China from its last source of cheap oil - Now it can back-fire on US also. Because removing of sanctions and higher oil prices will be an incentive for Iran to keep the closure of Strait for much longer duration. - Also what if US is unable to control Iranian oil? My fear - it will destroy it rather than it falling in to China;s hands. - Iran is just a pawn in great-game of chess between US and China.

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SearchingSoul
SearchingSoul@SearchingSoul81·
@ejmalrai Is Iran collateral damage in US - China conflict? 👇 x.com/SearchingSoul8…
SearchingSoul@SearchingSoul81

Real reason why US lifted sanctions on Iran and why it could back-fire: - In last 30 years, US imposed multiple sanctions on Iranian Oil, which made it almost impossible for Iran to sell its oil in open market - China lapped up this opportunity and for last few years almost whole of Iranian Oil was sold to China, at deep discount to the market price. China reaped huge benefits from cheap Iranian oil. - Last year, US and China were engaged in battle of wits on tariffs and China imposed ban on export of rare-earths. - US was in a spot and had no lever to counter China's rare-earth ban. So Trump backed-off on tariffs, temporarily. - US strategists thought that if China will use rare-earth as lever, then US will use Oil as counter-lever. - So US started capturing world oil supply. - First step in that direction was capturing Venezuela. - Then sanctions on Russian oil was removed, which meant China lost another source of cheap oil - Now only Iran was left from where China was getting deep-discounted oil. - With removing of sanctions on Iranian oil, US is betting that Iran will be tempted to sell its oil to other countries, at much higher prices, thereby depriving China from its last source of cheap oil - Now it can back-fire on US also. Because removing of sanctions and higher oil prices will be an incentive for Iran to keep the closure of Strait for much longer duration. - Also what if US is unable to control Iranian oil? My fear - it will destroy it rather than it falling in to China;s hands. - Iran is just a pawn in great-game of chess between US and China.

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Elijah J. Magnier 🇪🇺
' We will use the Iranian oil against Iran.' Nice theory. Keep it up, and Iran will happily let you undermine it by selling its own oil. x.com/SecScottBessen…
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent@SecScottBessent

Iran is the head of the snake for global terrorism, and through President Trump’s Operation Epic Fury, we are winning this critical fight at an even faster pace than anticipated. In response to Iran’s terrorist attacks against global energy infrastructure, the Trump Administration will continue to deploy America’s economic and military might to maximize the flow of energy to the world, strengthen global supply, and seek to ensure market stability. Today, the Department of the Treasury is issuing a narrowly tailored, short-term authorization permitting the sale of Iranian oil currently stranded at sea. At present, sanctioned Iranian oil is being hoarded by China on the cheap. By temporarily unlocking this existing supply for the world, the United States will quickly bring approximately 140 million barrels of oil to global markets, expanding the amount of worldwide energy and helping to relieve the temporary pressures on supply caused by Iran. In essence, we will be using the Iranian barrels against Tehran to keep the price down as we continue Operation Epic Fury. This temporary, short-term authorization is strictly limited to oil that is already in transit and does not allow new purchases or production. Further, Iran will have difficulty accessing any revenue generated and the United States will continue to maintain maximum pressure on Iran and its ability to access the international financial system. So far, the Trump Administration has been working to bring around 440 million additional barrels of oil to the global market, undercutting Iran’s ability to leverage its disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. President Trump’s pro-energy agenda has driven U.S. oil and gas production to record levels, strengthening energy security and lowering fuel costs. Any short-term disruption now will ultimately translate into longer-term economic gains for Americans – because there is no prosperity without security.

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SearchingSoul
SearchingSoul@SearchingSoul81·
@JavierBlas Removal of sanctions will benefit Iran or hurt China? Who is the real target? 👇 x.com/SearchingSoul8…
SearchingSoul@SearchingSoul81

Real reason why US lifted sanctions on Iran and why it could back-fire: - In last 30 years, US imposed multiple sanctions on Iranian Oil, which made it almost impossible for Iran to sell its oil in open market - China lapped up this opportunity and for last few years almost whole of Iranian Oil was sold to China, at deep discount to the market price. China reaped huge benefits from cheap Iranian oil. - Last year, US and China were engaged in battle of wits on tariffs and China imposed ban on export of rare-earths. - US was in a spot and had no lever to counter China's rare-earth ban. So Trump backed-off on tariffs, temporarily. - US strategists thought that if China will use rare-earth as lever, then US will use Oil as counter-lever. - So US started capturing world oil supply. - First step in that direction was capturing Venezuela. - Then sanctions on Russian oil was removed, which meant China lost another source of cheap oil - Now only Iran was left from where China was getting deep-discounted oil. - With removing of sanctions on Iranian oil, US is betting that Iran will be tempted to sell its oil to other countries, at much higher prices, thereby depriving China from its last source of cheap oil - Now it can back-fire on US also. Because removing of sanctions and higher oil prices will be an incentive for Iran to keep the closure of Strait for much longer duration. - Also what if US is unable to control Iranian oil? My fear - it will destroy it rather than it falling in to China;s hands. - Iran is just a pawn in great-game of chess between US and China.

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Javier Blas
Javier Blas@JavierBlas·
BREAKING: US Treasury eases oil sanctions on Iran, including permiting the sale of Iranian crude and refined products into the United States. Scott Bessent calls it a "narrowly tailored, short-term authorization permitting the sale of Iranian oil currently stranded at sea."
Javier Blas tweet media
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SearchingSoul
SearchingSoul@SearchingSoul81·
@ianbremmer Is China the real target in US - Iran war? 👇 x.com/SearchingSoul8…
SearchingSoul@SearchingSoul81

Real reason why US lifted sanctions on Iran and why it could back-fire: - In last 30 years, US imposed multiple sanctions on Iranian Oil, which made it almost impossible for Iran to sell its oil in open market - China lapped up this opportunity and for last few years almost whole of Iranian Oil was sold to China, at deep discount to the market price. China reaped huge benefits from cheap Iranian oil. - Last year, US and China were engaged in battle of wits on tariffs and China imposed ban on export of rare-earths. - US was in a spot and had no lever to counter China's rare-earth ban. So Trump backed-off on tariffs, temporarily. - US strategists thought that if China will use rare-earth as lever, then US will use Oil as counter-lever. - So US started capturing world oil supply. - First step in that direction was capturing Venezuela. - Then sanctions on Russian oil was removed, which meant China lost another source of cheap oil - Now only Iran was left from where China was getting deep-discounted oil. - With removing of sanctions on Iranian oil, US is betting that Iran will be tempted to sell its oil to other countries, at much higher prices, thereby depriving China from its last source of cheap oil - Now it can back-fire on US also. Because removing of sanctions and higher oil prices will be an incentive for Iran to keep the closure of Strait for much longer duration. - Also what if US is unable to control Iranian oil? My fear - it will destroy it rather than it falling in to China;s hands. - Iran is just a pawn in great-game of chess between US and China.

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ian bremmer
ian bremmer@ianbremmer·
problem: the united states has no near term plan to open the strait
ian bremmer tweet media
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SearchingSoul@SearchingSoul81·
@WeekendInvestng Is Iran just a pawn in US - China game of chess? One Theory 👇 x.com/SearchingSoul8…
SearchingSoul@SearchingSoul81

Real reason why US lifted sanctions on Iran and why it could back-fire: - In last 30 years, US imposed multiple sanctions on Iranian Oil, which made it almost impossible for Iran to sell its oil in open market - China lapped up this opportunity and for last few years almost whole of Iranian Oil was sold to China, at deep discount to the market price. China reaped huge benefits from cheap Iranian oil. - Last year, US and China were engaged in battle of wits on tariffs and China imposed ban on export of rare-earths. - US was in a spot and had no lever to counter China's rare-earth ban. So Trump backed-off on tariffs, temporarily. - US strategists thought that if China will use rare-earth as lever, then US will use Oil as counter-lever. - So US started capturing world oil supply. - First step in that direction was capturing Venezuela. - Then sanctions on Russian oil was removed, which meant China lost another source of cheap oil - Now only Iran was left from where China was getting deep-discounted oil. - With removing of sanctions on Iranian oil, US is betting that Iran will be tempted to sell its oil to other countries, at much higher prices, thereby depriving China from its last source of cheap oil - Now it can back-fire on US also. Because removing of sanctions and higher oil prices will be an incentive for Iran to keep the closure of Strait for much longer duration. - Also what if US is unable to control Iranian oil? My fear - it will destroy it rather than it falling in to China;s hands. - Iran is just a pawn in great-game of chess between US and China.

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Alok Jain ⚡
Alok Jain ⚡@WeekendInvestng·
Some murmurs of US withdrawal from war. However that may not end the conflict as IRAN may continue to pound its target It only ends when IRAN runs out of its motivation Even after the war has ended, it will take a long time to go back to where we were in terms of global growth and energy capacity. Inflation that may continue to manifest with lag for many quarters after war end will keep rate cuts away The war may end but the scars will remain for a long time.
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SearchingSoul
SearchingSoul@SearchingSoul81·
@RnaudBertrand Iran might win the battle but US will not lose the war, at any cost. One theory on why US removed sanctions on Iran 👇 x.com/SearchingSoul8…
SearchingSoul@SearchingSoul81

Real reason why US lifted sanctions on Iran and why it could back-fire: - In last 30 years, US imposed multiple sanctions on Iranian Oil, which made it almost impossible for Iran to sell its oil in open market - China lapped up this opportunity and for last few years almost whole of Iranian Oil was sold to China, at deep discount to the market price. China reaped huge benefits from cheap Iranian oil. - Last year, US and China were engaged in battle of wits on tariffs and China imposed ban on export of rare-earths. - US was in a spot and had no lever to counter China's rare-earth ban. So Trump backed-off on tariffs, temporarily. - US strategists thought that if China will use rare-earth as lever, then US will use Oil as counter-lever. - So US started capturing world oil supply. - First step in that direction was capturing Venezuela. - Then sanctions on Russian oil was removed, which meant China lost another source of cheap oil - Now only Iran was left from where China was getting deep-discounted oil. - With removing of sanctions on Iranian oil, US is betting that Iran will be tempted to sell its oil to other countries, at much higher prices, thereby depriving China from its last source of cheap oil - Now it can back-fire on US also. Because removing of sanctions and higher oil prices will be an incentive for Iran to keep the closure of Strait for much longer duration. - Also what if US is unable to control Iranian oil? My fear - it will destroy it rather than it falling in to China;s hands. - Iran is just a pawn in great-game of chess between US and China.

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Arnaud Bertrand
Arnaud Bertrand@RnaudBertrand·
Iran seems to be following a strategy of unveiling more and more impressive military capabilities as the war goes on. They just fired long-range ballistic missiles at Diego Garcia, one of the most strategically significant U.S. military bases in the world (hosting B-52 bombers, nuclear subs, etc.), nearly 5,000km away from them in the middle of the Indian ocean 👇. Diego Garcia has never been hit before in any war in its 5 decades of existence, and no-one knew Iran had these types of capabilities (Iran themselves said their ballistic missile range was limited to 2,000 kilometers). Two days ago, they also took down an "unkillable" F-35 fifth-generation fighter jet, something which has never happened before (militarywatchmagazine.com/article/footag…). They've also managed to take control of the world's most strategic oil chokepoint, and have proven they can hit any strategic target in the wider Middle-East, even the most protected ones (such as Israel's Haifa oil refinery: aljazeera.com/news/2026/3/19…). All in all, it sounds almost unbelievable but Iran appears to have a genuine form of escalation dominance over the United States military, with its trillion dollar budget. In a very real way, it's even more impressive than Vietnam or Afghanistan: those countries resisted a superpower, Iran appears to be competing with one. It also makes you think: what comes next? And that's exactly what escalation dominance is all about: keep raising the stakes until the other side blinks. It's about making Trump think "wait, I thought I was picking a fight with the skinny kid and turns out he's Bruce Lee."
Arnaud Bertrand tweet media
The Spectator Index@spectatorindex

BREAKING: Iran fired two ballistic missiles at US-UK base at Diego Garcia in the Indian Ocean, according to Wall Street Journal report.

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SearchingSoul@SearchingSoul81·
@JavierBlas One Theory on why US removed sanctions on Iran 👇 x.com/SearchingSoul8…
SearchingSoul@SearchingSoul81

Real reason why US lifted sanctions on Iran and why it could back-fire: - In last 30 years, US imposed multiple sanctions on Iranian Oil, which made it almost impossible for Iran to sell its oil in open market - China lapped up this opportunity and for last few years almost whole of Iranian Oil was sold to China, at deep discount to the market price. China reaped huge benefits from cheap Iranian oil. - Last year, US and China were engaged in battle of wits on tariffs and China imposed ban on export of rare-earths. - US was in a spot and had no lever to counter China's rare-earth ban. So Trump backed-off on tariffs, temporarily. - US strategists thought that if China will use rare-earth as lever, then US will use Oil as counter-lever. - So US started capturing world oil supply. - First step in that direction was capturing Venezuela. - Then sanctions on Russian oil was removed, which meant China lost another source of cheap oil - Now only Iran was left from where China was getting deep-discounted oil. - With removing of sanctions on Iranian oil, US is betting that Iran will be tempted to sell its oil to other countries, at much higher prices, thereby depriving China from its last source of cheap oil - Now it can back-fire on US also. Because removing of sanctions and higher oil prices will be an incentive for Iran to keep the closure of Strait for much longer duration. - Also what if US is unable to control Iranian oil? My fear - it will destroy it rather than it falling in to China;s hands. - Iran is just a pawn in great-game of chess between US and China.

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Javier Blas
Javier Blas@JavierBlas·
BREAKING: Trump on Iran: "We are getting very close to meeting our objectives as we consider winding down our great Military efforts [...] The Hormuz Strait will have to be guarded and policed, as necessary, by other Nations who use it — The United States does not!"
Javier Blas tweet media
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SearchingSoul
SearchingSoul@SearchingSoul81·
Real reason why US lifted sanctions on Iran and why it could back-fire: - In last 30 years, US imposed multiple sanctions on Iranian Oil, which made it almost impossible for Iran to sell its oil in open market - China lapped up this opportunity and for last few years almost whole of Iranian Oil was sold to China, at deep discount to the market price. China reaped huge benefits from cheap Iranian oil. - Last year, US and China were engaged in battle of wits on tariffs and China imposed ban on export of rare-earths. - US was in a spot and had no lever to counter China's rare-earth ban. So Trump backed-off on tariffs, temporarily. - US strategists thought that if China will use rare-earth as lever, then US will use Oil as counter-lever. - So US started capturing world oil supply. - First step in that direction was capturing Venezuela. - Then sanctions on Russian oil was removed, which meant China lost another source of cheap oil - Now only Iran was left from where China was getting deep-discounted oil. - With removing of sanctions on Iranian oil, US is betting that Iran will be tempted to sell its oil to other countries, at much higher prices, thereby depriving China from its last source of cheap oil - Now it can back-fire on US also. Because removing of sanctions and higher oil prices will be an incentive for Iran to keep the closure of Strait for much longer duration. - Also what if US is unable to control Iranian oil? My fear - it will destroy it rather than it falling in to China;s hands. - Iran is just a pawn in great-game of chess between US and China.
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