Sebastian Ehreiser

@Vulpescap @kevin__mak Do you think DFTX's competitive disadvantages are not being given enough weight in their current valuation?

Kevin I think you do good work but disagree here In a vacuum, comp360 might sell for the reasons you laid out, but when put against GH001 with similar efficacy and a 15 min trip (2 hour in office time on par with Spravato) there is no reason for 360 to exist. They say they’re going to roll this out in tms/Spravato clinics but I’ve spoken to mgmt at some large ones and they say the low volume is going to be a problem for them - they like that Spravato and tms are high touch because cross selling pts is a big part of their biz. This was years ago so that may have changed but if you haven’t spoken to them yet I’d recommend it I could be wrong of course, but I dont think 360’s competitive disadvantages are being given as much weight as they should (the 8 hour trip is why biotech funds don’t own this)

@Austinmulder95 lol you and me both!

If $ATAI gets bought I can finally stop scrolling and put my phone away.

@kevin__mak Interesting analysis. The lack of movement of the stock relative to DFTX despite several re-risking events is a bit concerning. My take is that the market does not have full confidence in the commercial uptake of COMP360.

@limpozzman @kevin__mak in theory CMPS will be able to fund future operations with revenue.

@kevin__mak Interesting analysis. I’m surprised you haven’t incorporated future dilutive offerings into your price predictions, even if current runway is into 2028.

@blairwhitty @C_Angermayer quiet is probably a good sign that talks are ongoing. So far the only credible source IMO is @Psyched_Alpha Josh wouldn't print it if weren't from a high quality source. My guess is there is a sticking point on valuation at this point. If VLS gets validated in Q4 the math changes

@C_Angermayer Lots of rumours floating around about $ATAI being acquired, do you care to comment on the people talking about one of your children like that.

Big weekend ahead for $ENHA 🤩

@BreakoutBiotech @Caleb_Crann agreed. just a question of resource allocation at this point absent an infusion of cash. a solid readout on VLS certainly will change the math on a raise which I am sure is part of the calculus in these negotations.

@SebastianE18938 @Caleb_Crann I could see them strongly preferring the partner it, but I think the indication is compelling enough for them to want to pursue either way. Latest announcement for VLS confirms they're aiming for a sweep on indications so I think they'll want to keep SAD in the pipeline.

$ATAI Most of the attention has been on BPL-003 and more recently VLS-01, but I'm curious if they'll partner for EMP-01. They've yet to disclose next steps for it since announcing phase 2a topline. Non-hallucinogenics in dev could eventually be interesting candidates as well.

@Caleb_Crann @BreakoutBiotech Part of it has to do with cost of treatment. Absent a partnership I don't see atai pursuing EMP. I think they are all in on DMT at this point (VLS and BPL).

Very curious how non-hallucinogenics will fit into this sector once we get more data! I remember $DFTX originally intended to focus on non-hallucinogens (way back in 2020) prior to focusing on DT120. From that perspective $ATAI has a leg-up with EMP-01 alongside their two core assets. I know some were upset with the 2a results having similar symptom reduction compared to daily SSRI medications but that’s two doses over six weeks compared to every day over an even longer timespan (thought it was something like 8-12 weeks for SSRIs). How some couldn’t view 2 doses vs. 56-84 doses for the same effect as a win boggles my mind.

@jordanhaim29 @C_Angermayer I have full faith in @C_Angermayer to negotiate the best possible outcome for shareholders. I don't see CA selling the company at the kind of valuations people are suggesting (4-6bn).

@SebastianE18938 @C_Angermayer I hope so. I understand taking risk off the table, but the thesis hasn’t changed. So why not go for it if you can get non-dilutive financing? Either way, I completely agree that he should protect shareholders and get the absolute best offer possible. 🙏🏼 🤞🏼

I increasingly feel about psychedelic medicine the way many people felt about AI a decade ago. The science is real. The clinical results are exceptional. The first approvals are right around the corner. These therapies will positively impact far more lives than most people currently expect. Yet most investors are paying little to no attention. The gap between what is happening and what is being priced in is extraordinary. History suggests these disconnects rarely last forever.

@jordanhaim29 @C_Angermayer We know CA as the biggest shareholder is aligned with shareholders. He will not give away something he has worked this long to build with so much upside left like you said. I imagine he is pushing for the upper limits and is prepared to walk if he can't get it.

@SebastianE18938 @C_Angermayer Not really. They usually do these via tender now. Not a vote, per se. Simple majority tender their shares, it’s a done deal. As for the price, that would be quite a premium to its 60 day VWAP, so I probably would. But I’d be sad given I honestly think they could be $50+ one day.

@jordanhaim29 @C_Angermayer Curious would you as a shareholder vote in favor of a sale at $14/share? Ultimately the decision to approve would be left to shareholders.

@C_Angermayer @C_Angermayer, if you sell, please don’t sell for anything less than $14. And if there are milestone contingent payments involved like most deals for pre-approved assets, make them achievable! I’ve seen this show too many times!

@Dansfera @filipsamardzicc @yuji_masataka Along with VLS data in Q4.

the harm ranking is the strongest case for rescheduling and the one regulators move slowest on. the sector already re-rated on category validation and capital access. the schedule change is the lagging indicator, not the catalyst. BPL-003 phase 3 is still the only thing that reprices atai

$ATAI $CMPS $DFTX This chart from @yuji_masataka makes a strong case that it’s time to reschedule psychedelic drugs like psilocybin, LSD, and MDMA out of Schedule I. It shows a 2024 expert panel ranking of drug harms (multi-criteria decision analysis by 17 specialists, published in Harm Reduction Journal). The chart scores substances across physical, psychological, social, and economic harms to users and others. Psilocybin (magic mushrooms) ranks lowest at ~3. LSD and MDMA also sit very low on the scale. By comparison, alcohol scores ~73 — dramatically higher. Tobacco, prescription opioids, cocaine, methamphetamine, heroin, crack, and fentanyl all rank well above both. Yet alcohol and tobacco are fully legal and socially accepted, while psilocybin, LSD, and MDMA remain in the most restrictive Schedule I category with no accepted medical use under current policy. This is the core disconnect the study points out: expert harm assessments often run opposite to legal scheduling. These compounds show some of the lowest risk profiles of any psychoactive substances evaluated, particularly when it comes to harm to others. As Phase 3 data continues to demonstrate meaningful benefits in treatment-resistant depression and anxiety, I look forward to seeing this change happen soon as the FDA begins approving these psychedelic compounds.

@bobbyennis @RationalMoneyX It is higher than that and will go up. As trials get further along they also get more expensive. My assumption is they will end up shelving EMP and going all in on their 2 DMT assets. atai is effectively a DMT play.

@RationalMoneyX They have $209 million in liquid assets and cash, their burn rate is $15 million per quarter, they have plenty of money to last to 2029. Get out of here with that nonsense. LOL

Q2 is over and $ATAI has not yet announced a partnership for BPL-003. I am starting to believe that there may be no more deal coming (at least not in the near future). A deal would have infused the company with cash, which could've have funded not just the ongoing trials for BPL-003, VLS-01 and EMP-01, but also a potential diversification into other indications of the mental health market (PTSD, MDD, Alzheimers etc.). On top of that, there would be a kind of guarantee for no further dilution in the future. This would've made $ATAI the most diversified, best funded as well as most scalable psychedelic company, with a big pharmaceutical company on its side. I still believe $ATAI is the best positioned company in this space, even with no deal happening. Anyway, I would be interested in how these talks developed and what made them walk away in the end. Now with "just" around $200 Million cash on hand, I lack the creativity to see how they won't need further dilution sometime in 2028/29. They say that the current amount is enough to fund the company into early 2029 but this doesn't include the money needed to scale the product once it officially hits the market. I could be wrong though, and maybe the talks are still ongoing but the current lack of transparency makes it hard to say.

@RationalMoneyX They can't really be transparent if there are ongoing negotiations. We will find out if and when a deal is completed. My theory is there never was a deal. Yes they will raise after VLS but that puts a lot of pressure on that readout.

@PsychedVantage I guess blinding is no longer the issue it was post Lykos?

@JackGorsline Do you mean equity in access?

Love the sentiment but I have zero confidence that equity is going to be anywhere close to the forefront of the conversation in the first 3-5 years post-FDA approval.

@Drug_Researcher @theawakecoach @Ravarora1 Thanks for your thoughts and your work. As with many aspects of psychiatric conditions there is a lot of nuance with addiction. Certainly a complicated subject. Whatever helps people get clean and stay clean should not be written off wholesale like you said.

@SebastianE18938 @theawakecoach @Ravarora1 I don't think addiction is a brain disease

The clock is ticking for AA & 12 Step programs. A lifetime of meetings was never needed to get that monkey off your back. Smart, divinely-guided use of psychedelics can change addicts, quickly. Great discussion w/@Ravarora1 & @Drug_Researcher on YouTube...

@Drug_Researcher @theawakecoach @Ravarora1 I have been involved with both and to me they are quite different. But yes there is nuance to the discussion. In your comprehension is addiction a progressive brain-based illness for which there is no cure?

@SebastianE18938 @theawakecoach @Ravarora1 I don't see them as fundamentally different. The 12 step language is one that reminds the person that there is always a risk of relapse, which is true. No psychedelic treatment guarantees there is no risk of relapse. We are all human capable of short term, bad decisions.

@Drug_Researcher @theawakecoach @Ravarora1 There is a fundamental question as to whether or not addiction can be cured. Psychedelic proponents would say yes. 12 steps would say it is not possible. There is space in between but fundamentally they are very different approaches to understanding the nature of addiction.

@theawakecoach @Ravarora1 I'd caution folks not to dismiss 12-step approaches or to think in black and white terms. 12-step helps and works for some people. Also there are folks like Kevin Franciotti who are leading the openness of psychedelic approaches in the 12-step community. joedolce.substack.com/p/when-the-pro…

@Josh__Hardman nuclear submarine is crazy lol

A long one from me today! Includes: - Coverage of various FDA-related developments - A look at psychedelics approval timelines - A deep dive into the Compass Pathways $CMPS vs. Usona Institute psilocybin race ⚓ Here's an excerpt from the latter... psychedelicalpha.com/news/momentum-…

@m_goes_distance @C_Angermayer @C_Angermayer Interesting to hear about potentially reviving DMX-1002. @Psyched_Alpha

Vanity drugs make more money than AI. Billionaire investor @C_Angermayer explains why peptides, GLP-1s, psychedelics, longevity & performance enhancement are exploding. And why optimizing the human body and mind will become the next trillion-dollar industry. 0:00 - Human Enhancement Is Here 06:38 - Trans vs Looksmaxxing 11:12 - Enhanced Games 22:32 - Next Red Bull 25:48 - Going Too Far 32:18 - Psychedelics Unlock 37:49 - Universal Happiness 43:30 - MDMA x Marriage 46:27 - 12 vs 2h Trips 54:18 - Trump, Ibogaine, Addiction 1:00:22 - Sex, Pleasure, Female Orgasm 1:10:04 - Vanity Drugs & Future