Seranity/Precise market analysis
57 posts


Yeah that's the unfortunate reality of headline algorithm trading nowadays.
Sector tanks 20-50%+ off delay news, then causes cascading margin liquidations.
"Delay refuted" news comes out, people still cast doubts over it, and markets focus on misleading delay reports weeks later over fundamental growth opportunities.
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$NVDA CEO, Jensen Huang in Tokyo today said:
"The reports are not true. Vera Rubin is already in production. Giant amounts of production incoming"
As a flat denial to the accusation that their AI servers would be delayed.
Jensen appears to be using the Umbrella term for Rubin Ultra/Kyber, then pointed to current gen ramp.
Regardless, lot of damage has been done already to Nvidia supply chains stock prices, after the multiple delay reports. Even if Nvidia refuted them by clarifying Kyber change was an architecture optimization, not impacting timelines.
It's a very dangerous and growing trend for folks to post overreaching broader claims from technical nuances to grow viewcount... Especially if they get Jensen has to respond.
In the end, I'm trusting $NVDA on timelines since they probably have the greatest visibility into their own supply chain.

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@shopaholicdivas Maybe something like Sambanova or other inference companies is my guess.
$AAPL is sitting on an absolute warchest right now.
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$AAPL looks to acquire AI chip companies for running AI (Source: The Information)
Right now, $MSFT, $META, Amazon, Google are carrying AI capex spend.
But what if Apple joined the others after M&A?
A possible scenario is that they revise capex largely upward for their own AI buildout.
Since they probably witnessed Google cutting off Meta from compute constraints... or what happens when you partner with OpenAI for LLMs.
Then learned how important it is to have your own infrastructure.
This scenario would be quite bullish thematically from optical networking to foundries and something markets would not expect? We'll see what happens.

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@michaelsikand DRAM 20%+ hike for next quarter, $SNDK LTAs with $META, $MU 16+ LTAs.
Market: proceeds to sell off memory.
800G transceiver revision sharply upward? Lasers completely sold out into early 2029?
Market: sells off photonics and laser companies.
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@SVTrivo No leaks yet on what companies $AAPL is buying.
Regardless, my guess is that they're trying to become more self-reliant after what happened with $GOOGL + $META and OpenAI.
Which would signal AI capex hikes, which markets definitely aren't expecting from someone like Apple.
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