Ryan

Merry Christmas everyone! As this year wraps up, I wanna advertise my priv account @birdieeboyy. I wanna focus 2026 on bettering myself. So, I'll be documenting a project on my priv account which seeks to accomplish that. That's all I'll say for now, more details coming soon.

Final thought: "I don't get paid enough for this shi-"

@CstmrSrvcNYEYH @Bernd35443445 @GornejoG @TheCartoonLoon Close to impossible is the best way to put it. You're right that the odds of breaking a tie within the first 3 votes is high. But chances are you won't be in the first 3 votes, or even the first 3 billion. It's nearly impossible that your vote will be breaking a tie.

@ShooterForSeth @Bernd35443445 @GornejoG @TheCartoonLoon Hey, you know what. Fairness of course to words meaning words. He did say close to impossible. Albeit that usually means someone is saying it is impossible, I shouldn't have thought he exaggerated one way or another.

So you see the "don't flood button" and you still decide not to press it? Like sure I understand if you see a bunch of people not pressing it aswell but you have to understand that in this scenario the don't flood the river button is literally the smartest choice.

@CstmrSrvcNYEYH @Bernd35443445 @GornejoG @TheCartoonLoon The fact that humans aren't a coin flip actually worsens the odds that it'll be exactly 50/50 by the time it gets to your vote. Humans will generally lean to one side or another. A 50/50 coin won't. And even with a 50/50 coin, the odds of it being exactly 50/50 are astronomical.

@ShooterForSeth @Bernd35443445 @GornejoG @TheCartoonLoon Humans aren't a coin flip. If they were, nobody would pick red, as it was random. All possible odds need to be covered. The only improbable odds are that 100% vote for red or blue. 1B/1R is the likeliest to exist of all 50/50 existences.

@CstmrSrvcNYEYH @Bernd35443445 @GornejoG @TheCartoonLoon Generate a random number between 1 and 8.3 billion, and then flip a coin exactly that many times. What are the odds it'll be exactly 50% heads and 50% tails at that point?

@ShooterForSeth @Bernd35443445 @GornejoG @TheCartoonLoon Well no. Addendum. They do heavily imply that they could care more if they had the ability to break a 50/50 vote, even though they won't know if they are currently in one during the vote.

@CstmrSrvcNYEYH @Bernd35443445 @GornejoG @TheCartoonLoon Maybe my vote will break A 50/50 (It still probably won't), but the point is that it won't ultimately decide whether the red or blue side wins the vote. Given that, the only button I can ensure saves a life (my own) with my vote is red.

@ShooterForSeth @Bernd35443445 @GornejoG @TheCartoonLoon Yeah, but it doesn't have to be instant. Therefore, 50/50s are always probable in the predicament. You're not told whether it will be like this or that, meaning the probabilities of 50/50s exists.

@CstmrSrvcNYEYH @Bernd35443445 @GornejoG @TheCartoonLoon If it's a private vote, then why does the sequence of the votes matter? All that'd matter in a private vote is the raw numbers and results after all 8.3 billion have voted.

@ShooterForSeth @Bernd35443445 @GornejoG @TheCartoonLoon Sequential voting has no baring on of it being private. I'm a blabber mouth by unfortunate circumstances. Even I know I can not say something that will ruin one thing or another. The votes are enforced to a severe degree, so is everything else in the dilemma.

@CstmrSrvcNYEYH @Bernd35443445 @GornejoG @TheCartoonLoon Um, okay? There's still 8 billion voting after me. I fail to see your point here. Also, presumably the votes wouldn't come in sequentially. It's a private vote, after all. Seeing the results as they come kinda defeats the point.

@ShooterForSeth @Bernd35443445 @GornejoG @TheCartoonLoon If the first one presses no flood, and the second one is for a vest. The third vote will split a 50/50 already.

@CstmrSrvcNYEYH @Bernd35443445 @GornejoG @TheCartoonLoon Uhhh, no? 8.3 billion people are voting. The odds of the vote being exactly 50/50 excluding mine are astronomically unlikely. I have a better chance at increasing the amount of people that die in the world by driving than I do by pressing the red button.

@Bernd35443445 @GornejoG @TheCartoonLoon At some point in the vote, it will most definitely become a 50/50 split of votes, it could be you. But either way you're just not understanding the simplest ideas here.

How I been moving in these fuckin' trenches for the red button:

Day ten of the x.com blue vs. red war I'm gonna lose my fucking mind

@KasaObake878 @EleganteStache @ReznovRulz The only assumption being made here is that the vote won't be exactly 50/50 in an 8.3 billion person vote. Me voting blue only saves anyone if the vote's exactly 50/50 excluding mine. In any other scenario, my vote didn't save a single life. It's just potentially killed myself.

@EleganteStache @ReznovRulz so you'll pointlessly and selfishly risk other people's lives on the assumption that other people will pick up the slack for you? ok.

Imagine thinking your IQ is 130 or above but not understanding how standard deviation works. 68% of the population votes blue here.

@SPFCCMT @EleganteStache @ReznovRulz If red's gonna win, then those 300 million kids are gonna die regardless. My one in 8.3 billion vote isn't gonna change that one way or the other. So, I can choose to add +1 to the death toll (myself) by pressing blue, or save myself by pressing red.

@EleganteStache @ReznovRulz Okay but if red wins, it basically guaranteed 300 million kids die.

@CAMMYPOTTER18 @Th3birdman15 @TNinja8899 @Dank_Blitzwing I was the one willing to keep arguing. He ran away because he was unwilling to answer a probing hypothetical (most likely because he knew it'd defeat his reasoning for the original one), and didn't like when I called it out. If that's me losing the argument, then fuck it.

@ShooterForSeth @Th3birdman15 @TNinja8899 @Dank_Blitzwing Look I'm just making observations here you lost your argument and are scrounging up scraps, but hey maybe I'm wrong I'm not going to be one of those scraps for you to feel better about it.

So I just saw this video from @Th3birdman15 and I'm genuinely curious how people can be this dumb. In the scenario, there's literally no downside to pushing red. If everyone presses red, everyone lives. The only reason to press blue is to feel morally superior, as some savior of the masses, and in doing so there's a 50/50 chance of killing a whole bunch of people. The blue button is the good intentions button and we all know where that road leads. youtube.com/watch?v=VvlfOp…

@CAMMYPOTTER18 @Th3birdman15 @TNinja8899 @Dank_Blitzwing It's a probing hypothetical to gauge his actual motivations for answering the original hypothetical the way he does. It's called isolating the variable. What do you think the point of a hypothetical is?

@Th3birdman15 @ShooterForSeth @TNinja8899 @Dank_Blitzwing They don't realize that making their own question different from the original hypothetical is actually running away from the get go while pretending to stand their ground. The people you come across man.

@Th3birdman15 @TNinja8899 @Dank_Blitzwing I guess I'll just leave this before I leave this thread: If you're the type of person to get personally hurt from a block just because the person doing it has a relatively big YouTube channel and a nice car, you need to take a break from this. I'm not that person. I'll be fine.

@Th3birdman15 @TNinja8899 @Dank_Blitzwing Ooooh, you didn't call me anything. You just implied that I was doing behaviors that the original tweet you quoted calls narcissistic. You got me. I'm replying because you're replying. I imagine that's what you're doing too. The difference between me and you is I don't run.

@Th3birdman15 @TNinja8899 @Dank_Blitzwing Well shit man, if blue wins then we both live! Him because he gambled his life successfully, and me because I saved myself!

@ShooterForSeth @TNinja8899 @Dank_Blitzwing And that's probably why your brother is likely to choose blue, because he cares if you die. 👉🔵

@Th3birdman15 @TNinja8899 @Dank_Blitzwing Homie, you can block me and run if you want. I've never heard of you before today. I'll be just fine. We stopped having a good hearted discussion when you called me a narcissist. I'm only putting words in your mouth because you're too cowardly to do it yourself.

I was under the impression that we were having a good hearted discussion. If you want to imply that I'm "running" by potentially blocking you for putting words in my mouth, you have the wroooooong guy. I don't fall for reverse psychology and I couldn't care LESS what you think about me: I'm the main attraction here. This entire thread is about me and my work and YOU want to talk to ME, not the other way around. I can focus on my Lakers fully. It literally makes me no nevermind.

@Th3birdman15 @TNinja8899 @Dank_Blitzwing Well no, I wouldn't care if I died, because I'd be dead. My little brother who's favorite color is red might, though.

That's another hypothetical. And you've failed to grasp the point of my question: me asking you who cares was followed by "You?", further demonstrating that the choice you're making is self-centered. Lol you're so caught up in trying to argue, you're forgetting that to effectively do that, you need to understand your opponent's position.

@Th3birdman15 @TNinja8899 @Dank_Blitzwing If you won't answer it, then I'll assume the answer that helps my argument? Don't like that? Answer it? Or you can run.

@ShooterForSeth @TNinja8899 @Dank_Blitzwing I have not answered your hypothetical, you should refrain from asserting I have. I've blocked people for much, much less.