Sid .

188 posts

Sid .

Sid .

@SidDubaiBrazil

Don't predict markets, read regimes. Writing from DIFC.

Dubai, United Arab Emirates Katılım Aralık 2022
45 Takip Edilen175 Takipçiler
Sid .
Sid .@SidDubaiBrazil·
"Too committed" assumes the goal was to pull back. What if the goal was always $100 oil. US holds 56% of EU LNG imports now. Shale producers are projecting $63.4B in extra cash flow. Venture Global founders just crossed $12B each. Smedley Butler wrote in 1935 that war is a racket run for the few who profit. Polymarket is pricing 57% on troops. Who is profiting from the commitment?
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Ted Zhang
Ted Zhang@TedHZhang·
Everyone is talking about Trump TACOing. What if he can’t? What if we are too committed now? There is a 57% chance the US sends ground troops in by 2027. Crude is holding up and back over $100 a barrel.
Ted Zhang tweet media
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Sid .
Sid .@SidDubaiBrazil·
@JavierBlas If Treasury won't short oil futures, fine. But markets still price policy risk. What would actually move the curve: a clear SPR release rule, or letting prices do the rationing until demand cracks?
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Javier Blas
Javier Blas@JavierBlas·
*BESSENT: NOT GOING TO DO FINANCIAL MARKET OIL INTERVENTION
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Sid .@SidDubaiBrazil·
My balcony. DIFC. This morning. 6 cranes. 4 piling rigs. Excavators running nonstop. The last 24 hours were the worst this region has seen in decades. South Pars gone. Ras Laffan hit. Oil past $109. Yet AED 153.6 billion in Dubai real estate this month. Up 28%. Some people see crisis. Builders see opportunity. The cranes do not lie.
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Sid .
Sid .@SidDubaiBrazil·
The word "bizarre" assumes there is no strategy. But what if the strategy is not military. What if it is financial. US supplied 6% of Europe's gas in 2022. By 2025 that was 56% of EU LNG imports. The largest energy market shift in modern history happened in 3 years. Now Qatar is offline. 20% of global LNG supply gone. The only country with meaningful spare capacity is the US. Venture Global shares up 24%. Founders worth $12B+ each. Rystad estimates $63.4B in extra US shale cash flow at $100 oil. Timeline: Jan 3: US removes Maduro. Access to 303B barrels. Feb 28: Strikes on Iran begin. Mar 3: Qatar halts LNG. Mar 17: Venezuela sanctions eased. Citing the war. Smedley Butler wrote in 1935: "I helped make Mexico safe for American oil interests." 91 years later the geography changed. The playbook did not. Is the US losing control. Or is this exactly what control looks like?
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Sid .
Sid .@SidDubaiBrazil·
Rumors cost nothing to create. Facts cost decades to build. The UAE has the receipts. 2008: Global financial crisis. Property dropped 50%. Abu Dhabi injected $20 billion. Market recovered by 2014 with stronger regulation. 2020: Pandemic. $70 billion stimulus deployed. Golden Visa launched. Dubai reopened before most major cities. Ended the pandemic with more residents than it started with. 2024: Worst rainfall in 75 years. Airport shut down. 70 days later the government approved a Dh30 billion drainage network to increase capacity by 700%. Now 2026. S&P reaffirmed AA/A-1+ on March 6. Net assets at 184% of GDP. For comparison the US sits at negative 123%. Central Bank reserves: Dh1 trillion. Banking sector: Dh5.4 trillion. Sovereign wealth: $2.93 trillion. FDI hit $45.6 billion in 2024 while global FDI fell 11%. Non-oil GDP is 77.5% of the economy. BlackRock and Brookfield have publicly reaffirmed commitments. Zero major multinationals have withdrawn. GDP grew from $43 billion in 1980 to $537 billion in 2024. Through the Iran-Iraq war. The Kuwait invasion. The oil crash. The financial crisis. The pandemic. The pattern is always the same. Crisis. Recovery. Stronger. How many times does this need to be proven?
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د. أنور قرقاش
د. أنور قرقاش@AnwarGargash·
حذرنا مرارًا من خطورة الشائعات في زمن الحروب. وما يُتداول عن فرض قيود على حركة رؤوس الأموال في دولة الإمارات غير صحيح، وتفنّده الجهات الرسمية بوضوح. تاريخ الإمارات الاقتصادي قائم على الانفتاح وحرية انتقال الأموال، وهو أحد أعمدة نجاحها وجاذبيتها الاستثمارية. الإمارات ستعود أكثر تصميمًا ونجاحًا، ولن ينجح العدوان الإيراني في مساعيه.
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Sid .
Sid .@SidDubaiBrazil·
Smedley Butler was the most decorated Marine in US history. In 1935 he wrote: "War is a racket. It is the only one in which the profits are reckoned in dollars and the losses in lives." He also wrote: "I helped make Mexico safe for American oil interests in 1914." 91 years later. Same playbook. Different geography. US went from 6% of Europe's gas in 2022 to 56% of EU LNG imports by 2025. Venture Global founders' wealth up 29% to $12B+ each since this war started. Rystad estimates $63.4B in extra US shale cash flow at $100 oil. Jan 3: Maduro removed. US takes access to 303B barrels. Feb 28: Strikes on Iran begin. Mar 3: Qatar halts LNG. 20% of global supply offline. Mar 17: Venezuela sanctions eased. Citing the war. Stop debating who knew what. Study who profits. The data is all public. Has anything really changed since 1935?
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Globe Observer
Globe Observer@_GlobeObserver·
🚨 Joe Kent says Ali Larijani was negotiating peace and was killed. Qatar’s gas could have stabilized energy markets — it was hit too. He says Tel Aviv doesn’t want peace, it wants permanent war, and America is the weapon.
Globe Observer tweet media
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Sid .
Sid .@SidDubaiBrazil·
The question is not who knew what. The question is who profits. US went from 6% of Europe's gas in 2022 to 56% of EU LNG imports by 2025. With Qatar offline that number is only going up. Venture Global founders worth $12B+ each. Up 29% since the war started. Norway now supplies 30% of all EU gas. Their PM is resisting EU price caps while TTF is up 60%. But here is the timeline that matters: Jan 3: US removes Maduro. Takes access to 303B barrels in Venezuela. Feb 28: Strikes on Iran begin. Mar 3: Qatar halts LNG. 20% of global supply offline. Mar 17: US eases Venezuela sanctions further. Citing the Iran war. Chevron is already producing 240K barrels a day in Venezuela. Rystad estimates $63.4B in extra US shale cash flow at $100 oil. Every beneficiary sits outside the Gulf. The data is public. Who had the most to gain?
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Sid .
Sid .@SidDubaiBrazil·
37% in 2 months. And the supply disruption is only 18 days old. South Pars is gone. Ras Laffan hit. 20% of global crude transits Hormuz. Iran just threatened 5 more Gulf facilities yesterday. The 2022 peak was $5.03. The difference then was supply recovered. This time the infrastructure itself is damaged. Diesel already at $4.97. That flows into food prices within 4-6 weeks. The question is not where gas stops. It is what breaks first — demand or diplomacy?
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Lisa Abramowicz
Lisa Abramowicz@lisaabramowicz1·
Average US gasoline prices have surged 37% since the January lows, rising to the highest since 2022. The absolute price level, $3.88, is still within the range of normal from a historical perspective. But it's rising at an rapid clip, without a sense of where or when it'll stop
Lisa Abramowicz tweet media
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Sid .
Sid .@SidDubaiBrazil·
Gold down 3% today. Up 75% in 12 months. That is not a sell-off. That is a shakeout in the middle of a generational run. The Fed just held at 3.5%. Inflation revised up to 2.7%. One cut still on the table for 2026. They are not hawkish. They are frozen. Meanwhile 20% of global crude supply is at risk and Brent is above $112. Rate hikes fight demand-pull inflation. They do not fix bombed pipelines. What tool does the Fed have for a supply war?
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Peter Schiff
Peter Schiff@PeterSchiff·
Gold and silver are selling off again because investors realize rising inflation takes rate cuts off the table. But they don't realize that while the Fed holds rates steady, inflation will run away. By the time it acts even a 6% fed funds rate won't be high enough to rein it in.
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Sid .
Sid .@SidDubaiBrazil·
My balcony. DIFC. This morning. 6 cranes. 4 piling rigs. Excavators running nonstop. The last 24 hours were the worst this region has seen in decades. South Pars gone. Ras Laffan hit. Oil past $109. Yet AED 153.6 billion in Dubai real estate this month. Up 28%. Some people are leaving. Others are breaking ground on $27 billion worth of new district next door. Weak hands exit. Builders double down. Which side of this are you on?
Dubai Media Office@DXBMediaOffice

Denying false reports Fake News The UAE introduces strict laws to prevent foreign investors from withdrawing their capital and leaving Dubai. These measures reportedly include freezing bank accounts and imposing restrictions on money transfers and capital movement. Fact: The UAE’s economy is strong, and Dubai will continue to remain a global economic hub.

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Sid .
Sid .@SidDubaiBrazil·
I'm in DIFC right now. Construction crews on every floor. Government liquid assets at 210% of GDP. Debt at 27%. Budget surplus averaged 5.6% of GDP for 5 straight years. S&P says the UAE has "exceptional strength." The people spreading capital flight rumors have clearly never been here. What are they actually looking at?
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Dubai Media Office
Dubai Media Office@DXBMediaOffice·
Denying false reports Fake News The UAE introduces strict laws to prevent foreign investors from withdrawing their capital and leaving Dubai. These measures reportedly include freezing bank accounts and imposing restrictions on money transfers and capital movement. Fact: The UAE’s economy is strong, and Dubai will continue to remain a global economic hub.
Dubai Media Office tweet media
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Sid .
Sid .@SidDubaiBrazil·
Pakistan sources 99% of its LNG from Qatar. India 44%. Bangladesh 65%. All 32 ammonia plants in India run on gas. IFFCO already shut down. Urea up 40% since Ras Laffan went offline. 3-4 million tonnes of fertilizer per month not reaching markets. This is a food crisis hiding inside an energy crisis. What does rice cost in Dhaka by June?
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Lark Davis
Lark Davis@LarkDavis·
Nobody's covering the real story of the Ras Laffan attack. One facility in Qatar supplies 20% of the world's LNG. LNG isn't abstract. It's the flame under a wok in Shanghai. A family in Karachi heating their home. A farmer in India who needs fertilizer to grow food. 1.1 billion people in Asia alone cook on gas daily. It's offline. Zero spare capacity to replace it. Europe's reserves already 35% below normal. When prices spike, poor families don't pay more. They go back to burning wood and charcoal. People die from that. A missile hit a gas plant. The headline missed the story.
Lark Davis tweet media
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Sid .
Sid .@SidDubaiBrazil·
The timeline: 1. Israel hits South Pars (shared field with Qatar) 2. Iran retaliates on Qatar's Ras Laffan. Extensive damage confirmed 3. Trump threatens to "blow up the entirety" of South Pars if Qatar is hit again Qatar supplies 20% of global LNG. South Pars holds 19% of world gas reserves. Both sides are now threatening to destroy the same field. Who protects the 40 countries that depend on this gas?
The White House@WhiteHouse

Statement from President Trump on South Pars Gas Field:

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Sid .
Sid .@SidDubaiBrazil·
South Pars hit record output of 730 mcm/day just weeks before this strike. Iran supplies Iraq with enough gas to generate 3,100 MW. Iraq already confirmed that power went offline within an hour. The fireball fades. The supply gap does not. How long until downstream countries start rationing?
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Anas Alhajji
Anas Alhajji@anasalhajji·
🛑For those following the current attacks in Iran, the region, and the Hormuz crisis but who aren’t deep into the oil industry: Oil and gas are highly flammable. When a rocket or drone hits a full storage tank or depot, the resulting fireball and massive plume of black smoke create dramatic, instantly recognizable visuals that spread worldwide in minutes. That’s exactly why militants, terrorists, and state actors have long targeted these facilities: the imagery guarantees global headlines and amplifies fear. But spectacular flames and smoke are not the same as meaningful, sustained damage to actual oil and gas supply flows. In many cases, the weapon used costs far more than replacing the tank and refilling its contents. The true “payoff” for the attacker is often the viral photos and videos, not a lasting disruption to production or exports. To the big accounts and commentators hyping every burning tank or depot as proof of massive destruction: let’s dial back the exaggeration. Dramatic scenes grab attention, but they rarely translate to the kind of prolonged supply shock that would truly reshape oil markets or the Hormuz crisis. They also divert attention from the insurance fiasco we are experiencing now. A case in point: guess where this dramatic scene is.
Anas Alhajji tweet media
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Sid .
Sid .@SidDubaiBrazil·
@JavierBlas South Pars is shared with Qatar. Qatar's side supplies 20% of global LNG and 80% of Qatari government revenue. So the real question: did anyone brief Doha before hitting a field that sits under their economy too?
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Javier Blas
Javier Blas@JavierBlas·
Two posibilities on today's attack on South Pars: 1) Israel told the US and Washington either approved it or didn't oppose it: Bad 2) Israel told the US and Washington couldn't convince its junior war partner to stop it: Very, very bad. Who decides escalation: US or Israel?
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Sid .
Sid .@SidDubaiBrazil·
Gold at $5,589 three weeks ago. Now $4,861. A 13% drawdown while PPI prints 0.7% MoM, hottest in a year. That annualizes to 8.4% producer inflation. Every oil shock in history saw gold flush first on margin calls then reprice once stagflation landed. What is the 50-DSMA telling you that inflation is not?
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Ted Zhang
Ted Zhang@TedHZhang·
Gold futures break the 50-DSMA and 10-WSMA for the first time in over 6 months. When you see volatility about a month ago, more often than not, that signals a top or at least the start of a prolonged basing period.
Ted Zhang tweet media
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Sid .
Sid .@SidDubaiBrazil·
Qatar lost 20% of global LNG supply when Ras Laffan shut down on March 2. Gas prices spiked 50%. Now strikes are hitting facilities linked to the same geological structure. If South Pars infrastructure degrades, does North Field output stay safe on the other side of a line on a map?
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Javier Blas
Javier Blas@JavierBlas·
Qatar isn't happy with Israel (and the US?). Doha is surely trying to minimize blowback from Iran: both countries share the same gasfield, which the Iranians call "South Pars" and the Qataris call "North Field"
د. ماجد محمد الأنصاري Dr. Majed Al Ansari@majedalansari

The Israeli targeting of facilities linked to Iran’s South Pars field, an extension of Qatar’s North Field, is a dangerous & irresponsible step amid the current military escalation in the region. Targeting energy infrastructure constitutes a threat to global energy security, as well as to the peoples of the region & its environment. We reiterate, as we have repeatedly emphasized, the necessity of avoiding the targeting of vital facilities. We call on all parties to exercise restraint, adhere to international law, & work toward de-escalation in a manner that preserves the security & stability of the region.

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Sid .
Sid .@SidDubaiBrazil·
@business BTC +13% since Feb 28. Gold -4.4%. The charts tell the story. The supposed safe haven is losing to the asset everyone said would collapse in a war.
Sid . tweet mediaSid . tweet media
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Sid .@SidDubaiBrazil·
@zerohedge Europe pulling troops signals this conflict is widening, not winding down. War risk insurance on Gulf transits already at 1-3% of hull value, up from 0.05% pre-war. Markets are pricing a short war. The region is pricing a long one. Which side is wrong?
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Sid .@SidDubaiBrazil·
@business Rerouting via Cape adds 10-14 days. War risk premiums hit 1-3% of hull value. That is up to $6M per VLCC trip. The Strait is technically open. The insurance market says it is not. How long before freight reprices every contract in the region?
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Bloomberg
Bloomberg@business·
A Pakistani tanker earlier this week became the latest vessel to sail out through the Strait of Hormuz by hewing closely to the Iranian coast, suggesting an approved route bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
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Keşfet

@JavierBlas @elonmusk @BarackObama @taylorswift13 @cristiano @BillGates @NASA @nikifrancismediavine