Simon Wolfgang Fuchs

Just arrived in Beirut after last week’s devastating strikes. Over 1 million people displaced in this small country. I am here in solidarity —and to urgently push for protection of civilians and an end to this spiraling conflict.

Al-Hosh, Tyre this morning, the street adjacent to ours. Israel levelled a 10-story building with 20 apartments, destroyed a car wash and our local bakery. Hero rescue workers are still running into danger to save the injured. They send news back to the displaced. #Lebanon

Farhikhtegan Magazine published a 42 minute discussion about the Islamabad Negotiations from an Iranian perspective, featuring Mohamad Amin Imanjani, one of the media members of the Iranian delegation. There were quite a few interesting points illustrating the Iranian perspective on the talks. Here were some of the main ones: - The Iranians believed the US delegation largely lacked the technical expertise to fully understand the issues in depth. They also did not have the authority to make major decisions (he points out Vance himself said he made multiple calls to Trump). - In contrast the Iranian delegation was highly specialized. They included two previous heads of Iran's negotiating teams (Araghchi and Bagheri Kani) along with the head of one of the three branches and were ready to make decisions. - They believed the US delegation led by the Vice President was primarily there to assess the state of Iranian thinking after weeks of war. They intentionally made maximalist demands to see how the Iranians would react. - Despite the very real damage Iran suffered form the war, the Iranian side believed they had a stronger hand than previous rounds of negotiations. Whereas after the 12 Day War Iran's main source of leverage was the 60% enriched uranium, now it has the Strait of Hormoz in addition to that. The Iranian negotiators aimed to maintain those gains. - Iran saw a this meeting as a rare opportunity for a high level encounter with the United States (the head of Iran's Parliament meeting with the US VP) for both systems (IR & USA) to gain a clear understanding of each other. - He affirms there were trilateral meetings with Iran, the US, and the Pakistanis in the same room and on the same table. No one was shuttling between rooms like the previous rounds. - This opportunity of direct dialogue at such a high level was quite valuable in each side getting a precise understanding of each other. He emphasized again that Iran had reached the conclusions from previous rounds that neither Witkoff, nor Kushner had the technical knowledge, experience, or ability to property communicate the main issues with high level US decisionmakers. [At this point a different journalist named Mohammad Sadegh Alizadeh also joins the discussion. He was not present in Islamabad] - The US neither was able to accept Iran's conditions, nor did it want to return to all out war like before. Thus a naval blockade is their attempt at a third path that still maintains pressure on Iran without the pains of all out conflict. Iran has concluded from this that the US strongly prefers not to return to previous war conditions. - Trump's logic is that if Iran is going to try to strangle the world economy then he will strangle the Iranian economy. - Given that over 80% of Iran's oil exports go to China, this will create an additional crisis between China and the US (on top of tariffs and other issues at hand). Iran is keeping a close eye to see if Trump's trip to China gets delayed again - if so they believe that is a sign of a wider gap between them. - Iran believes there is a risk that a blockade will push China to change its stance and more actively seek to put pressure on Iran to end its blockage of the Strait of Hormoz. This is a danger, because China has some leverage over Iran. Additionally up to now China has been friendly to Iran in this conflict and Iran used its veto at the UNSC. That may change. - It was noted that a UAE delegation went to China today and Iran believes this is an attempt to push China towards this direction. - If no agreement is reached and there is longer conflict, then in the next round of talks it is possible that in addition to the new card of the Strait of Hormoz, Iran will also have the card of Bab el Mandeb. He also notes that in normal times it may be possible to make up for a loss of Iranian oil in the market, but if the Strait remains closed, that loss is much more profound. And if Bab el Mandeb is closed that impact is amplified even more. Link to the full discussion (in Persian) is in the first comment

Many Pakistani journalists regard this as premature - conversations about where & when continue behind the scenes, nothing is finalized. Be that as it may: #Pakistan is emerging as an indispensable actor in getting the world back from the brink. I hope these talks come to pass.

A very convincing analysis on how we reached the #Islamabad talks!

@BabakVahdad Thank you very much for this highly convincing analysis!

The more details emerge, the clearer it becomes what Iran’s ambassador to Pakistan, Reza Amiri-Moghadam, meant when he said “Islamabad is not an event, but a process.” - This didn’t start last weekend. It goes back to the war phase, when Washington-facing results far below expectations-activated a regional diplomatic track involving Egypt, Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan. - After some initial CBMs, this led to the March 29 “quartet” meeting in Islamabad. Egypt played a key role in pulling Riyadh into the format at a moment when US assets in the Kingdom were under Iranian pressure. No breakthrough there-but that wasn’t the point. The process had started. - From that moment, the track widened. Pakistan appears to have brought China into the loop-Dar’s trip to Beijing on March 31, the day after the meeting, is a strong indicator and likely reflects an Iranian request. - In the days that followed, contacts continued at multiple levels, with Army Chief Munir playing a particularly active role. That sequence led straight to the April 8 ceasefire and then to last weekend’s high-level talks. - One key point: this process was triggered by the US at a moment when the war was becoming unsustainable. All the regional actors mentioned were pulled into it. Expecting results in 24 hours was always unrealistic-but the objective was to test positions, clarify red lines and start narrowing gaps. - On substance, Tehran was perhaps ready to show some flexibility on the nuclear file, but much less on what it now sees as its real strategic deterrent: the Strait of Hormuz. - Ghalibaf’s return to Tehran was likely not just routine debriefing-it was about testing how much space there really is inside the system, especially with the IRGC, after what emerged in Islamabad. At the same time, Trump’s “naval blockade” looks like an attempt to raise the price of Iranian resistance ahead of the next round. - At the same time Islamabad seemed to be navigating the Tehran-Riyadh axis with notable skill, despite its formal defense pact with Saudi Arabia. Rather than being pulled into a binary alignment, Pakistan has leveraged its ties with both sides to position itself as a credible intermediary-maintaining strategic reassurance toward Riyadh while preserving enough trust with Tehran to host and facilitate dialogue. In this sense, its role in the process was not neutral, but carefully balanced. - Moghaddam’s remarks reads like a precise signal: the Islamabad track is still active, still evolving with the same regional actors and very much designed to continue beyond the first round of talks. #Iran #Iranwar

Hezbollah SG calls on Beirut to take “historic” stance and cancel tomorrow’s preparatory meeting, saying there must be internal consensus on such a matter. There was no such consensus when Hezbollah unilaterally entered the Gaza and Iran wars.

BREAKING: Next round of Iran-US direct talks will be held in Islamabad on Thursday, a source in Tehran tells me

It appears as if Trump has deleted his post portraying himself as Jesus after facing some backlash from his own supporters.

EXCLUSIVE: How US-Iran historic deal missed by bearest of margins "It was around 3am when some officials present at the centre were alerted. The message came from people inside the Serena Hotel: “Be ready, there could be a joint statement.” tribune.com.pk/story/2602580/…

#Pakistan & #Iran have officially begun trade through their new transit corridor, with Islamabad sending an inaugural commercial truck shipment of frozen meat to Tashkent, #Uzbekistan, officials reported Monday. Pakistani consignments would reportedly be routed through the #China-operated southern Pakistani port of #Gwadar, then pass through Iranian territory into Central Asian countries, effectively linking them with South Asia.

Lebanon’s Govt scientific research council has collated figures which show the widespread destruction being wrought on the country by Israeli airstrikes… about a thousand homes have been destroyed each day since early March

Naval blockades and Popes getting involved in international affairs please remind me which century it is

Someone at the Tasnim News Agency has an image folder named “leaders_mocking”

President Trump has posted this picture on social media of himself as Christ healing the sick. I’ve long given up saying how hard it is to think of any previous US president who behaved like Donald Trump, but comparing himself to Jesus puts him on another level altogether.

The lopsided balance of power between capital and labour: the workers have no ability to refuse to wear the cameras which are training systems which will eventually replace the workers themselves

There is now a massive street party with huge crowds dancing in Budapest. I saw hugs, tears and bottles opening.

Araghchi says in Islamabad parties were “just inches away from "Islamabad MoU". Noteworthy. #Iran #IranWar‌

Another triumph for American diplomacy

Prime Minister Viktor Orbán has just called to congratulate us on our victory.