Aron Lund

“Both [al-Zaidi] and Trump said the remaining US forces in Iraq, believed to number less than 2,000, would completely withdraw from Iraq by September 30. That is the same date al-Zaidi pledged that armed factions active across Iraq would disarm.” aljazeera.com/news/2026/7/14…

Hormuz’s Omani route explained by @WSJ’s @RebeccaYFeng, @CostasParis, and @JosephTTWallace. Apparently a U.S.-backed shuttle traffic system run by smaller-scale, less risk-averse tanker operators, but they are now also taking fire from Iran. wsj.com/world/middle-e…

According to U.S. and Israeli sources speaking to @Axios’s @BarakRavid, Trump has told Netanyahu that Israeli forces aren’t wanted in Syria and Lebanon and should start redeploying. axios.com/2026/07/14/tru…

In a new Presidential Online Rant, Trump reverses yesterday’s decision and announces a subtler extortion scheme where you must invest in the United States to transit Hormuz. (All hypothetical, of course, since he can’t stop Iran from blocking the strait.) @realDonaldTrump/116918941071241802" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTru…

🙃

If you can’t beat Iran, be Iran

BIG news, Trump says he will remove Syria from the state sponsors of terrorism list

U.S. Central Command forces have begun launching a series of powerful strikes against Iran to impose heavy costs for targeting and attacking commercial shipping crewed by innocent civilians in an international waterway. The U.S. strikes are in response to Iranian attacks on three commercial vessels that were transiting the Strait of Hormuz. Iran’s demonstrated aggression was unwarranted, dangerous, and a clear violation of the ceasefire.

Iran has to my knowledge given no indication whatsoever—before, within, or after the MoU—that it would let ships pass without its approval. It seems genuinely weird that USA & many others seem to have misunderstood Iran to that degree. I mean, they keep saying it over and over?

”An Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson said commercial vessels using uncoordinated routes … faced risks” “A U.S. official said the Office of Foreign Assets Control was revoking the general license that authorized the sale of Iranian oil” @barakravid: axios.com/2026/07/07/us-…

Unless there’s some secret little thing going on here, this sounds like it’s about to collide head on with Iran’s publicly stated (and still today violently enforced) policy that it will remain the sole facilitator of traffic in Hormuz until a new system is agreed, under the MoU.

Good @atwoodr interview on the Iran deal and regional relations with former U.S. Iran envoy and @CrisisGroup head @Rob_Malley. crisisgroup.org/pod/middle-eas…

“United States President Donald Trump has said he will lift sanctions on [Turkey] and will soon decide on resuming sales of F-35s.” @AJEnglish aljazeera.com/amp/news/2026/…

@LizHurra @Loubnamrie @azelin Well, in your defense you were offline for a little while

@Loubnamrie @aronlund @azelin I've known Aron online for over a decade and only recently I've come to realize he's funny!

Why is he still wearing sunglasses?

If they do a passable rendition of YMCA, Erdogan will get all of the F-35s he wants

Kurdish factions fear Iran’s revenge after Trump’s failed war. @vvanwilgenburg & @CarnegieMEC: carnegieendowment.org/middle-east/di…

Hur ser teknikutvecklingen ut fram till 2050 — och vad kan den betyda för Sveriges försvar och säkerhet? Militärteknik 2050 ger en intressant inblick i framtidens teknologi och militär förmåga. Perfekt sommarläsning för dig som vill lyfta blicken: foi.se/rapporter/rapp…

Mohammed al-Tarazi och jag kommenterade läget i Syrien i morgon-Ekot, apropå Sharaas möte med Trump. sverigesradio.se/artikel/syrisk…

More by @BrewerEricM on the same topic here: tnsr.org/2026/06/irans-… and here: tnsr.org/2026/06/what-g…

This was good: @BrewerEricM on Iran’s threshold nuclear status and deterrence strategies, in conversation with @nktpnd on @warontherocks’s Thinking the Unthinkable podcast. warontherocks.com/episode/thinki…