This Ordered Chaos

But they have never worked a day in the private sector; never started a business; built a new product or service; hired a single soul from their hip pocket; or struggled for years, always at risk of going under… What we are seeing is the lid being lifted on those who have always lived completely taxpayer-funded lives trying to take and tax as much as possible to feather the public sector nest. They have never known what it is like to draw a private wage and/or profit. They think it is a zero sum game: any private income, profit or capital gain needs to be redistributed back to government and its dependents. It is the only way they know how to make money: by taxing private citizens and corporations to fund the public oligarchy and its way of life…

My goodness 👀👇👇👇

**1/** Tax settings alone cannot explain the sharp post-1999 decoupling of Australian dwelling prices from incomes shown in the chart. Pre-1985: 0% CGT + full negative gearing. House prices tracked per-capita incomes closely. No decoupling. 1985–1999: CGT with full inflation indexation + negative gearing restored. Still aligned. Post-1999: 50% CGT discount introduced. *This* is exactly when the orange line (prices) rockets away from the blue line (incomes). If tax treatment was the dominant driver, the biggest boom should have occurred in the *most* generous era (pre-1985 zero tax). It didn’t. **2/** The 1999 change wasn’t really “a return to the pre-1985 regime.” Pre-1985 = zero tax on any capital gain. Post-1999 = you still pay tax on *half* the nominal gain (after 12 months). Better than indexation in a low-inflation world, but nowhere near a full exemption. The much-discussed asymmetry (deduct full losses today, tax only half the gain later) only exists because negative gearing was *already* in place for decades — without producing the same price explosion. **3/** So what *did* change around 1999–2000s? Economists across the spectrum (RBA-linked work, Grattan, Treasury, AHURI) point to a confluence of non-tax structural shifts that supercharged demand while supply lagged: • Financial deregulation matured: Credit explosion, easier lending standards, securitisation, lower real rates. • Strong demand shocks: Migration/population growth + easy mortgage credit / low rates. • Inelastic supply response: Planning, zoning, land release restrictions, and NIMBYism in major cities. This is repeatedly identified by RBA, Grattan, and others as the key reason extra demand translates into price rises rather than more dwellings. Land values (not construction costs) have driven most of the real price increase. • Amplifiers: Tax settings (negative gearing + CGT discount) tilt investor demand, but are secondary. Cultural shift toward housing as leveraged wealth asset. First Home Owner Grant (2000) + two-income household growth + wealth effects. Housing became heavily financialised as a leveraged retirement/wealth asset in a low-rate, low-inflation world — something that simply wasn’t possible in the high-inflation, credit-rationed pre-1985 era. **4/** Tax concessions (negative gearing + CGT discount) are real but relatively small in scale compared with the $11 trillion+ housing market. Their estimated price impact sits in the low single digits at most. The pre-1985 evidence is frequently used precisely to demonstrate that tax generosity by itself doesn’t drive decoupling when other fundamentals — credit access, supply responsiveness, and demographics — are different. **5/** Bottom line: The chart’s timing looks dramatic and the 1999 tweak coincided with the divergence. But the historical record (especially pre-1985) proves CGT and negative gearing cannot be the main explanation. The real “something” was a perfect storm of easier credit, population pressure, and entrenched supply constraints that turned housing into a high-powered investment asset class in a way earlier eras never experienced. Tax tweaks may have added a bit of fuel — they didn’t light the fire.

The new Palestine Holocaust denial.

But they have never worked a day in the private sector; never started a business; built a new product or service; hired a single soul from their hip pocket; or struggled for years, always at risk of going under… What we are seeing is the lid being lifted on those who have always lived completely taxpayer-funded lives trying to take and tax as much as possible to feather the public sector nest. They have never known what it is like to draw a private wage and/or profit. They think it is a zero sum game: any private income, profit or capital gain needs to be redistributed back to government and its dependents. It is the only way they know how to make money: by taxing private citizens and corporations to fund the public oligarchy and its way of life…

Dave is spreading BS here. Super funds are exempt from the changes. And the CGT hasn't been doubled, it's moved to a real gains system. Any capital gains will still be discounted, but instead of 50%, the discount will be calculated based on the cost base being indexed to inflation over the period the asset was held. For example, cumulative inflation has been 100% since 2000 and 50% since 2010. A rate floor of 30% will be in place, tied to your marginal tax rate if it is higher than that. Pensioners and others on means-tested benefits will be exempt from the floor.

🚨 BREAKING: SHOTS FIRED just outside the White House Multiple reporters are saying they've heard 30 SHOTS