Six Stock Thesis

Introducing the Six Stock Thesis. 🧵 Most portfolios are graveyards of good intentions - too many positions, too little conviction. I do it differently. 5 to 7 stocks. High conviction. Trend-aligned. Rotated when the upside is spent. The rules are simple: → Ride the trend, never fight it → Concentrate where the growth is real → Rotate early - compound the difference → Value is welcome, but only if the wind's behind it This isn't a tips account. It's a thesis. Over the coming weeks I'll be rolling out my top 6 to 8 stock picks - the names I'm putting real capital behind right now. Each pick comes with the full reasoning. The trend. The upside. The exit logic. If that's the kind of investing that interests you, follow along. The positions drop soon. 👀 #Investing #StockPicks #SixStockThesis

@SMASIMHO Marriott at Marco Island. Thanks bro!

@SixStockThesis What restaurant bro looks good

Sweet night made sweeter of what’s about to unfold this week. Watching overnight trading. Looking good so far for $NBIS $MRLN

@KingTimmy0629 You mean invested? It’s not an expense that you just spent on :)

I just spent 32,000 dollars on my highest conviction pick $NBIS I’ll buy high, it’s going higher 🚀

@GrindeOptions Waiting on the sidelines. No position It could go either way depending on what the management says during the ER

$IREN reports next week! How are we feeling? 👀

Next to $NBIS, I am most bullish on $MRLN In my opinion, this is just about to take off. This stock market cap is still below $1 billion. Likely an easy 2x by end of this year and a potential 10 bagger in 2027. NFA. DYOR.

@Sandeman52 LFG! $NBIS

$NBIS up about $4 dollars in the overnight after a flurry of news snippets hit today…most notably the $MSFT pre payment of 40% and Opens AI pivoting to ClickHouse. $NBIS may make new ATHs this week. The story continues to get better and better.

$NBIS didn’t have a conventional IPO but rather a relisting of the former Yandex entity. There was roadshow, no price discovery mechanism that a normal IPO provides nor where there an underwriter syndicate to support the stock or set an offering price. Hence the opening trading price was rather low

@SixStockThesis I think people are thrown off that its 7x in the past 1 year and $NBIS won't increase anymore due to this quick rise.

It’s incredible to think that $NBIS really is “just” a $39 billion company. 2027 revenues might land around $10 billion. Don’t get me started with its subsidiaries like Clickhouse and Avride and the latest acquisitions, Tavily and Eigen AI. Sometimes the biggest opportunity is right under our noses. The rest is really just discipline and accepting the fact that volatility will be part of the journey.

@njshoreinvest I heard someone said that once you have wealth, you now need to use it to compound your health That’s the biggest flex when one has money. It’s not buying unhealthy cheap foods That aside, you’re doing a great job on the investing side!

I’m 33 with a net worth of $4M. And I’m eating a $1.50 hotdog for lunch. $COST

@steady_profits $NBIS is a team brimming with elite engineers who have long track record of building. This is where the moat will come The underlying reason how each of the mag 7 became special. Always starts with a group of world class talents coupled with relentless execution

@SixStockThesis Yes, backing strong management teams is often a recipe for success, and Nebius' appears to be one of the best in terms of vision and execution.

Absolutely! They check all the boxes! But the biggest factor is the quality of management. Outside of mag 7, very few CEOs can match the track record of Volosh Volosh will get the recognition he deserves and long overdue. Transforming $NBIS into a Mag 7 size of a business will do exactly that

@SixStockThesis I think I have this same thought nearly every day when I think about my investment in $NBIS. I don't know what their market cap will be in the future, but I'm fairly sure it will be multiples of $39 billion.

@DrTomsLens It’s indeed exhilarating trying to keep up with $NBIS execution pace. Although when you take a step back, this is exactly the type of execution that you would expect from the calibre of Volosh’s team - team’s quality is comparable to that of the Mag 7

With all the winning by $NBIS this week, we also know Anthropic is desperately looking for compute, and $NBIS has reportedly been in talks for an Asia / Australia data center. I’m not implying anything, and I haven’t tracked this closely. How much can anyone really track with a company moving this fast anyway? Just saying: the number of potential and realistic catalysts over the coming months is insane. I haven’t seen anything like this before. AI wants to go vertical, and $NBIS is rewriting how fast it gets there.

@longinvest32 Do it! Just kidding, your call

If I sell off the rest of my single stock portfolio for all in $NBIS I’ll get about 400 more shares would put me at 1221 total Hmm

@war_346887 @Gubloinvestor My man you are clearly way ahead of us lol!

@SixStockThesis @Gubloinvestor It should be 50k per share stock at least. That is my price target at the end of this year. I have 100 fyi

$NBIS will report its Q1 2026 results on May 13, before the market open. What is your expectation? new all time high or pullback?

@CKCapitalxx @zen_tropy Appreciate the color on the advantages of short term contracts for $NBIS! Didn’t know that!

People on X have been digging through the $NBIS 20-F and what they found is hard to overlook. Great find from @zen_tropy The Microsoft deal details are more bullish than the headline number suggested. Microsoft committed $17.39 billion irrespective of actual GPU utilization. That is a take-or-pay structure. They pay whether they use it or not. The upfront prepayment alone is $6.96 billion. Morgan Stanley called that significantly higher than expected and well above CoreWeave’s referenced 15 to 25% prepayment range. Two tranches already delivered on a nine tranche schedule running through October 2031. Then there is the spot market angle that most people are sleeping on. $NBIS has roughly $550 million in ARR outside of Microsoft and Meta. Most of those contracts are short duration under one year. CoreWeave has 98% of its business locked into multi-year take-or-pay committed contracts. That sounds safer but it means CoreWeave cannot reprice. $NBIS can. Morgan Stanley flagged this directly. Short term contracts in a supply constrained market reprice at current rates. GPU pricing is going up not down. $NBIS could continue outperforming specifically because of this exposure. Then look at the data center footprint they quietly disclosed. 16 plus locations across the US and Europe. Finland greenfield owned facility. Missouri and Alabama owned sites secured February 2026. Israel two new sites February 2026. France two new sites February 2026. UK new site February 2026. Minnesota and Oklahoma co-locations February 2026. 2 gigawatts of contracted power as of February 2026. They added more data center sites in February 2026 alone than most companies announce in a full year. RPO sitting at $21.3 billion before the second Meta deal even closed. Earnings are coming. The 20-F already told you what to expect. $NBIS

@Jiaxun5269 It’s all relative!

@SixStockThesis $38 billion and calling it small? My wallet clearly has a huge misunderstanding of the word small.

@tradewithcong @grok fact check this

Something feels off Sen. John Boozman serves on the Senate Veterans' Affairs Committee and the Defense Subcommittee He recently disclosed purchasing $NTAP (NetApp) on 2/27 NetApp sells data-storage hardware and currently holds a ~$52M contract with the DoD It's also providing hardware used in a ~$5M Department of Veterans Affairs project

@realroseceline There will only be a few winners - I agree. $NBIS will be one of them

I’ve been thinking a lot about AI, chips, and all these other hot poplar industries and ai keep coming back to a pretty uncomfortable conclusion. Ten years from now, most of the companies people are excited about today will not work out as investments. Not because the technology isn’t great or the people arnt amazing, and not because demand won’t be massive. But because great technology and great returns are not the same thing. We’ve seen this before in then1990s, everyone knew the internet would change the world, and they were right. What they got wrong was who would actually make money and more importantly who would earn high returns on capital because the future economics were unclear. There’s a simple reason this keeps happening. The more important a technology is, the more capital flows into it, and the more capital flows into it, the harder it becomes to earn excess returns. Everyone builds, everyone expands, everyone competes, and the economics get spread thin over time. You end up with an incredible industry and very average investments. I think AI is setting up the same way. There will absolutely be winners, and the obvious place to look today is the hyperscalers like $AMZN, $MSFT, and $GOOG, perhaps $META, because they have distribution, cash flow, and the ability to invest at a scale others can’t. Even then nothing is guaranteed, but at least the logic holds. Where I struggle is when people assume every part wins at the same time. Chip designers, manufacturers, neo clouds, and AI applications are all raising capital and racing to grow. That sounds exciting on the surface, but it also means competition is increasing exactly where people expect the most profit. Usually capitalism doesn’t reward that evenly, again we’ve already seen this movie. If you break it down, each layer has its own challenge. Semiconductors require massive capital and constant reinvestment just to stay relevant. Cloud platforms may win, but pricing pressure and competition will naturally compress returns over time. AI applications have no moat, with low switching costs, and many of these “neo” infrastructure players are dependent on what looks promising today but the economics are difficult to foresee 3-5 years out. There’s a simple framework I keep coming back to. Value tends to concentrate in only a few places, the customer relationship, the lowest cost producer, or the bottleneck that acts like a toll bridge. Everything else ends up competing away its profits over time. The question is not who participates in AI, but who actually owns one of those positions. This is where most investors get tripped up. Investing isn’t about how big something becomes, it’s about what return that business earns on the capital it reinvests. You can grow quickly for years and still be a poor investment if all that growth requires constant spending just to keep up. At that point, you don’t have a compounding machine, you have a treadmill (this is a quote from my book). And treadmills are dangerous when expectations are high. Because the moment investors realize returns won’t match the story and more important the expected economics, the repricing isn’t gradual. It’s fast, and it’s brutal (ie $TTD), and it usually catches people off guard. That’s how you get 70% or 80% drawdowns in companies that still look like they’re “winning.” If you own five or six companies across the same AI value chain, you’re implicitly betting they all earn high returns. History suggests that’s unlikely. You might be right on the theme and still wrong on the outcome. That’s a tough lesson, but it’s a real one we all should think about. I could be wrong on who the winners are, but I’m very confident most won’t be. That’s not pessimism, it’s just my opinion that’s backed by pattern recognition. If it walks like a duck and quacks like a duck, it’s probably a duck. We’ve seen how this plays out when capital floods into something important and everyone tries to win at once. 🌹

@AlexfromBabylon It begs the question why $MSFT was more than willing to pay this much to $NBIS in advance Likely the answer is in the level of execution

$NBIS Upfront prepayment for Microsoft deal pegged @ ~40% of TCV ($6.95B on $17.39B contact value), which MStanley sees as significantly “higher than expected” and well above crwv’s referenced 15-25% prepayments. I now understand why Microsoft does not want Nebius to disclose the deal. 40% prepayment is wild.

@Fibonacci_TA Can we get to $200?

$NBIS (Max Pain $140 | Price $154) — May 8 expiry 1.55M stacked at $245 and price is $14 past the pin. The forced buying has been running and the structure keeps pulling higher. Puts are a wall below $140 — 1.65M at $60, still heavy through $118, then they vanish. Calls are quiet through $150, start building from $155, and the staircase turns steep from $215 to $245. The squeeze is live right now, dealers hedging as price holds above $140. But expiration unwinds that pressure Friday — $14 above max pain is a real snap-back window if momentum stalls. 🎯 Squeeze in motion. $140 is the floor. $195 is where the ramp turns serious, $245 is the ceiling at 1.55M. How far does $NBIS run before Friday.