Sky

Would love to see Kalshi or Polymarket host a daily live show on their site discussing the most important current markets - basically turning the newsletter into a daily one-hour live show.@mansourtarek_ @luanalopeslara @shayne_coplan

I’m confused - why was he blocked from opening an account on Kalshi? Why wouldn’t he be allowed to place a trade on other markets?

This is extremely impressive

@j0hnwang I didn’t know they are spending 900k a day on incentives. Thats pretty crazy

@SkyatPM The difference is Poly’s is incentive-driven Poly: $900k/day Kalshi: $11k/day x.com/kaviish/status…

I get the point they are trying to make here but just weird considering that there’s some categories that probably have pretty decent bot volume on Kalshi as well?

@GaetenD Sharp

With that Hornets win (which was never in doubt for a second), I am now officially profitable in sports overall. wtf?

@2irl4u Bullish

I started a new company (more on that later). We’re hiring Design Engineers and Smart Contract Devs. Our team is ex-Citadel, Google, Aave, and Polymarket. $10k referral fee if your intro leads to a hire*

@Ianmakesmarkets @RollingStone @Kalshi Love the insight as always Ian!

Great article by @RollingStone ! It’s incredible to see the growing impact @Kalshi is having on the music industry.

@DustinGouker Interesting game of choice

If Kalshi put up a live stream of a pai gow table that I could trade on, I would probably never get anything done. Just putting that out there.

@oaktoebark lol

hearing rumors some garbage band market makers on PMs are getting debanked? any truth to this?

@predictdotfun This is impressive

Predict has the best Esports liquidity. 🔮predict.fun/market/lol-gen…

@benwfreeman1 @Domahhhh How is this problem any different than people harassing athletes? You don’t think athletes are going to get harassed due to outcomes on Kalshi, just like they currently do with Sportsbooks? Don’t understand how this only has to do with Polymarket

Kalshi has KYC and works with the CFTC to make rules against insider trading, manipulation, and other bad behavior. The CFTC just came with guidance around working with the exchanges about not listing markets that are more susceptible to bad actors manipulating the outcome, or threatening individuals. Kalshi has to comply with these regulations. The CFTC has banned Polymarket, because Polymarket is unwilling to comply with CFTC regulations. I know that being CFTC-regulated isn’t a fix all, but it’s 100% better than what Polymarket is doing, which is nothing. Also, and I don’t mean to generalize too much, but Polymarket, in my opinion, has a disproportionate share of the bad faith actors. There is no KYC, and VPN use to skirt Polymarket’s terms is rampant. There are many known scams in the UMA process. I think you’ve complained about Planet K, but I think you would agree that’s due to mistakes made by the Kalshi team, not traders being scammers. I just think we need to call a spade a spade. This stuff is a Polymarket problem, and I’m tired of Polymarket being lumped in with Kalshi because Polymarket is flying way to close to the sun, and you have lawmakers who want to shut it all down because of Polymarket’s decisions. I love Shayne, but as the prediction markets scale and become bigger, you have to comply with rules and regulations. It’s the only way to keep prediction markets safe and legal

I truly want Kalshi, Polymarket, and other prediction markets all to succeed, but when lawmakers are threatening to curb prediction markets for all government action, it’s critical to point out that this is a Polymarket problem (which isn’t legal in the US), not a Kalshi one

@KirkEvans0 @LordYapper @Polymarket Haven’t research the market, was just reading the rules. Yea this shouldn’t settle 50/50, pretty unlikely two strikes landed simultaneously. Outside of conflict of reporting, I can’t think of another reason. UMA system is not the best.

@SkyatPM @LordYapper @Polymarket Yes exactly. The strikes did not happen simultaneously by any English definition of simultaneously, Israel struck and then the USA struck

polymarket.com/event/will-us-… @Polymarket on who will strike first Israel or USA. All credible reporting indicate that Israel struck first, yet currently proposed for the market to settle 50/50. Can someone please explain how this market could settle anything other than Israel.

@KirkEvans0 @LordYapper @Polymarket “If no qualifying strike occurs by March 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET, strikes occur simultaneously, there is ambiguity about the order of strikes, or no consensus can be reached by March 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.”

@LordYapper @Polymarket Its going to settle 50/50, if not enough info out yet then thats fine but how could it possibly settle 50/50

@PMwatchUS Yessir

@SkyatKalshi Did you leave Kalshi?

Confused about why this market was up in the first place. If he was going to be removed as leader, the chances were that it would involve his death. Now it’s just a mess of retail traders who have no idea how last traded price works. And even for those who do understand it, there’s still a lot of ambiguity about when he actually died. It makes sense to either go all in on these kinds of markets or take the moral high ground, imo.

@mr_peanutbettor Exactly

If you’re someone who thinks prediction markets have immense utility, I don’t see how you can be against war markets. The info has immense utility. Other Structures are highly incentivized to promote messages. If the goal is info not gambling, it’s the best use of PMs

@Ianmakesmarkets Love the content - need daily tweets!

With 3 days left in February, traders are forecasting Bruno Mars to have a #1 song on Spotify US this month. So far, only Bad Bunny, Zara Larsson, and PinkPantheress have done it. Bruno Mars — “The Romantic” drops Friday. Will he get there?

@crydevil_crypto So you think the same amount of rewards is needed when the markets launched compared to a few days after?

@SkyatKalshi Because market makers will pull their limit orders, and the order book will become empty

How can Polymarket explain removing rewards so suddenly and without any warning? How are people supposed to farm when the rewards can drop from 700 to 3 while you’re just away making tea? Am I missing something?

@crydevil_crypto But why would they need to keep the same amount of rewards as when the market first gets launched?

@SkyatKalshi So there’s liquidity?