Sam Williams
218 posts

Sam Williams
@SlamWilliams
Architecture|Construction|Real Estate
Boston Katılım Mart 2011
235 Takip Edilen53 Takipçiler

@CarolWalshReal1 @mwmoedinger This describes about 70% of my clients right now. Young families that would typically upsize, but are locked into low interest rates on their current homes and do not want to double or triple their mortgage payments.
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Let's talk about the Architecture Billings Index.
Today's monthly report came out, showing the 14th straight month of decline. That ain't good.
Architecture firms are an economic leading indicator - a canary in the coal mine - if billings are down, that means not as much stuff is getting designed, and that means that 9-12 months from now, that stuff won't be getting built.
The ABI a monthly report that shows whether architecture firms' billings are increasing or decreasing compared to the previous month, and is widely used within the industry [and beyond] as an economic indicator. Here is March 2024. Anything below 50 is bad.
This data has been collected for many years. Here's a graph showing the ABI since 2008. You can see the long climb out of the recession, and stable billings until the crater of 2020. Then, a quick recovery, followed by steady decline.
The yellow line is baseline - anything above that is good, anything below that is bad. We want to be at or above the yellow line.
We aren't, and haven't been for a while.
What's interesting about that is that even though developers aren't building [ahem, interest rates], they're also not teeing up projects.
Architects can stay busy in downturns doing feasibility work for developers who are lining up projects that they can "press play" on as soon as the lending/financing environment becomes more favorable.
We do plenty of that work, and have a few developers doing that as we speak. But most have stopped.
But, developers aren't the only ones who hire architects - institutions, homeowners, government, and businesses all hire architects - and when billings are below that yellow baseline, it usually means every sector is down.
Here is a graph of billings by sector [black = institutional; red = commercial/industrial; yellow = residential [incl. multifamily] Remember, anything below 50 is bad.
And here is the same graph, by region [yellow = midwest; black = south; red = northeast; teal = west]...again, not good no matter where you are.
Anecdotally, architects report in this month's ABI that they have an average backlog of 6.6 months, so the pipeline isn't completely empty...but it's not exactly robust.
Running an architecture practice is a tough business is tough in the best of times...and the data confirms, it's been especially hard the last 12-16 months.
If you are in the industry, and/or just interested in the economy, you should subscribe to the monthly report. Google "architecture billings index AIA" and you'll find it.




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Photos from @motifonmusicrow
#ideoli #customlighting #customdesign #mirrors #lights #lightingsolutions #lightingdesign #interior #hotel



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@tomecurran Not sure it matters what they do at QB with this O-line and these receivers
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@ZoandBertrand are we sure Judge isn’t going to be Dwight Shrute, Assistant TO the head coach?
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@WillBrinson It will cost +$40mm/yr and two draft picks. Maybe teams are more interested in rolling the dice with more cost controlled prospects.
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Not one single NFL team even wants to TRY and acquire 26-year-old former MVP Lamar Jackson?????
Super weird!!!!!
cbssports.com/nfl/news/no-nf…
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@billbarnwell is McKinnon sliding for sure the right play? It seems weird that scoring at any time could ever hurt your win probability.
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@tomecurran Need to ask if it was conveyed to them in the huddle to NOT do that in a tie game?
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@barstoolsports Guy needs to invest in the synthetic oil…cut that oil change number by more than half
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@HardyRadio Whole Foods brown butter chocolate chip cookies are the best in the game
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Nagging Girlfriend Won't Even Let Her Boyfriend Dig A Tunnel In Peace barstoolsports.com/blog/3414686/n…

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@nationalgridus what is the phone number I need to call to ask about moving a gas meter in Brookline, MA?
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@datageneralist @NY_Rangers1024 @ayeedayy @ScoreInvestor @theScoreBet @theScore based on the career page of their website, they are trying
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@NY_Rangers1024 @ayeedayy @ScoreInvestor @theScoreBet @theScore Wow. That would be incredible.
They really need to ramp up hiring and implement some of these obvious improvements.
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@ScroogeMcBux I’d actually be averaging up if I buy now, which is why I’ve been looking at different options scenarios
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@SlamWilliams With this being said in a situation like $SCR you have two choices. If you can afford to sit on the money you can buy calls and shares and average down when it dips. If you can’t sit on the money you wait until right before the next catalyst to buy in.
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@ScoreInvestor My options would prefer it happened by Dec 17 😂
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