@alphaticaio You're the only group I see posting data, not "what-ifs" or "has to" to justify whatever narrative they're biased towards. Data vs complete subjectivity. Kudos to you.
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Steve Slawny
18 posts
🚨🚨This weekend we're sending subscribers the first of many original trading research reports with actionable ideas.
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Signal #003: Day 2 Close
Both sides contributed today. Short book led.
Today: Longs -0.08% | Shorts +0.30% | L/S +0.22% Cumulative: Longs +1.68% | Shorts -0.16% | L/S +1.52%
Two days in. The long book has names up +5.7% and +4.3% already. The short book caught an +11% move on day 1 that's holding. 6 of 8 shorts green today.
Signal #001: +20.52% L/S final.
Signal #002: +3.20% L/S on day 14 of 20. Was -2.51%. Signal #003: +1.52% L/S on day 2. Email subscribers only.
Three signals. Three positive spreads.
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$SPY $SPX $QQQ
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3% away from 7462. We told you in March when Fintwit was in shambles.
$SPY $SPX
Alphatica@alphaticaio
$SPY is still in a downtrend. We will pick up calls at Friday's close for early next week. Our year-end target remains 7462. NFA.
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@MichaelPBento I've never bought into the saying that "markets can stay irrational for longer than you can stay solvent." But I was clearly niave. What I've learned is no politician ever benefits from markets being down. They will do everything possible, even if unethical, to prop them up
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I would not be surprised if we push up to the pre-market high at 715.50 then turn and sell the rest of the day
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@MichaelPBento Facing new ATH by open. I'm done trying to understand it.
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@MichaelPBento SPY flat by eod and rips on AH earnings. End the week at ATH. Perfectly logical. 😄
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"We want to see progress on tariffs before we think about reducing rates."
The Fed ain't cutting rates this year folks.
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@Basssem666 Almost a $4 swing since this post. WTF is going on with SPY? It's bipolar.
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@Basssem666 Oil up 8%, VIX up 5% and SPY is down a whopping $2. 🤣
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$SPY $USO I spoke about oil possibly making a sweep of lows at 78 with the false head and shoulders breakdown on the daily.
It’s now above $105 as we speak with an inverse head and shoulders on the 4H. If this pattern breaks out we could be above $110 soon which will be terrible for equities or at least it should be, but we have seen equities unjustifiably go up with oil in the previous sessions.
This is sad and very bad for our economy nevertheless. Tough times especially for the most vulnerable.
Bassem@Basssem666
$SPY $USOIl I know oil has been highly manipulated but what if this was a fake breakdown of the head and shoulders to sweep some lows then go higher ? This is speculative but something to consider.
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@MichaelPBento While I 💯agree that oil impacts everything, the market has basically given oil the middle finger. I'm neither bull nor bear. I just want to make $$. But, because I thought markets would not be able to sustain these high oil prices, I've completely missed this monster run up
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The only one out of their depth here is this guy who continues to think that oil prices just affect gasoline. I have never seen anyone be so confidently wrong. I mean to suggest that $150 oil won't cause a recession in the US is beyond insane and only found in the opinions of people who never took an Econ class.
I'll say it one more time for the people in the back.
OIL. GOES. INTO. EVERYTHING.
Jake@JakeKAllDay
The US has a max export capacity of 5mbd, which it currently is at (pipes support 10 but not ports). There is a physical limitation on the upward pressure that overseas shortages can place on prices. Oil can go to $150/b and still not cause a recession bc it’s only 1/3 of Us energy. Cars are 20% More efficient than 07-08 and adjusted price vs today is $200/b. Natgas is -30% over the last several months. It’s the same share of US energy consumption. Are you going to lose your mind over how that surplus flows to consumers? No, probably not, you’re fixated on this one small part of the economy. You’re totally out of your depth. You are so certain about this but are too afraid to put $ on it. I’m Offering you free $, right? Treat it like a future contract. Surely you trade those. You sure have strong opinions about the oil market.
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@MichaelPBento I truly don't understand why markets keep pushing higher. It's more than just fake headlines.
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Looking at the current 0dte, 1dte, and all expirations gamma profiles it looks like 720 is building up as a big call level. I wouldn't rule out a run at 720 prior to the FOMC. The fly in the ointment is that would put us at a nearly 1% overthrow of the rising wedge on SPY. Given that I can see 718 as a definite possibility before Wednesday.
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@MichaelPBento I've been waiting for some sort of legit pullback for 3 weeks now.
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In terms of gamma profile this morning,, across all expirations the call wall has remained at 715 as it was yesterday. However, the put wall has rolled down to 699 from 700, though both 699 and 700 right now are neck and neck. So that is going to be a big level. Looking at 0dte once again however more than half of the call wall gex across all expirations is from 0dte while the 0dte put wall is at 703.
When it comes to 699 and 700 put gex, most of it is loaded into next week so as far as gamma is concerned like if we don't get a boots on the ground over the weekend dump then we will at least see a pullback to that level which is something the charts are also suggestion. Before you permabulls attack me, the best case scenario for you is a pullback to that level next week, otherwise if we keep grinding higher like we've been then that is a big risk of a hard drop after the Fed. Remember trends most often experience their trend shifts on one of the following three days, Monthly OpEx, Quarterly OpEx, and Fed Meetings (there are obviously exceptions).
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SPY FOLLOW-UP | Thursday April 23, 2:08 PM
$707.68. Recovering from the $702.28 low.
Three things holding the line:
Dealers still short 62.9M shares. Smaller than the peak but still buying every dip mechanically.
IV spiked from 17.2% to 19.3% in 40 minutes and appears to be pausing. Vanna at +96.7K is the strongest supportive reading of the cycle. When vol stops rising, dealers buy. It doesn't need to crush. It just needs to stop accelerating.
Tomorrow's OpEx. 901K puts expire at 4 PM Friday. As those puts decay into expiration, dealers unwind hedges. That's a natural tailwind into the close today and tomorrow morning.
This is a bounce, not a reversal. The -$1.23B of negative GEX is still there. The eight accelerators below price didn't move. $700 is still loaded at -$208M. The structure is the most bearish of the cycle.
$700 is holding. That's the only thing that matters right now.
$SPY $QQQ $VIX
Alphatica@alphaticaio
SPY UPDATE | Thursday April 23, 2:00 PM $706.45. Down 0.67%. The structure is accelerating. Composite: -9.4 [Neutral, bearish side] In the 40 minutes since our volatility alert, every metric got worse. GEX: -$1.23B. Was -$400M at 1:20 PM. It tripled in 40 minutes. This is the deepest negative GEX reading of the entire cycle. Deeper than Tuesday's -$628M. Deeper than anything during the March selloff. Dealers are amplifying this move at a scale we haven't seen. Daily flow: -226.9M shares of short delta. Was -62.5M at 1:20 PM. It quadrupled. This is now the second-largest bearish flow session ever, behind only Tuesday's -326M. And we still have two hours of trading left. Put premium: -$1.30B net into puts. 70% of dollar volume to downside. $2.3 billion in put premium traded. This is crisis-level flow on a 0.67% down day. The magnitude of the positioning far exceeds the price move. IV: 19.3%. Was 17.2% at 1:20 PM. A 2.1-point spike in 40 minutes. IV is now 1.2% above realized vol. Options are pricing expansion. The vol sellers from last week are gone. The accelerator chain is fully loaded: $703: -$109M (0.5% below) $701: -$126M (0.8% below) $700: -$208M (0.9% below) $699: -$117M (1.1% below) $695: -$124M (1.6% below) $690: -$90M (2.3% below) $685: -$90M (3.0% below) $680: -$128M (3.7% below) Eight accelerators within 3.7% of price. Not a single magnet in the top 8 GEX levels. The nearest magnets are $715 (+$86M) and $720 (+$88M), both above. Below price, it's nothing but accelerators all the way to $677 GEX flip. Dealer short delta collapsed from 115.6M this morning to 62.9M. Dealers sold 53M shares in half a session. The forced-buying engine that was 215M at its peak is now 71% smaller. It's still buying dips, but each dip gets less support. Vanna flipped to the strongest supportive reading of the cycle at +96.7K. That means IF vol reverses and crushes, the snap-back in dealer buying would be violent. This is the coiled spring on the upside. But vol has to reverse first, and right now it's expanding, not compressing. What saved us at 1:20: $700 hasn't broken. We tagged $706.45 and the selling paused. The $700 accelerator at -$208M is the largest single accelerator of the cycle. If it fires, the chain reaction through $695, $690, $685, $680 is automatic. That's a potential 4% flush from $700 to $680 with nothing to stop it. Tomorrow's OpEx: 1.27M contracts. 901K puts. If we close above $700 tomorrow, the puts expire and provide relief. If we close below, they activate. $700 is the line for two reasons now: it's the largest accelerator and the OpEx decision point. No headline caused this. The ceasefire is still extended. Hormuz didn't escalate further. This is the structure unwinding on its own weight. Three weeks of compressed positioning releasing without a catalyst. The bottom line: Deepest negative GEX of the cycle. Second-largest bearish flow. IV spiking. Dealer engine at 29% of peak. Eight accelerators below price with no magnets. The structure has never been more one-directionally bearish. $700 is holding. If it holds into tomorrow's close, OpEx provides relief. If it breaks, nothing stops the cascade until $677. $SPY $QQQ $VIX
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@Basssem666 SPY going to fully recover that sell off is insane.
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$SPY told you it can bounce from there. Because I trimmed some profits at support I can now add them back for a discount which what I’m going to do. I’ll also add more at 713 if we touch it, though it’s unlikely now, you never know in this market.
Bassem@Basssem666
$SPY are we printing ?!!! Trimmed a little profit but keeping the rest. A bounce between 701-703 is likely before continuing lower. I’ll remain positioned for the full move but just de risking a little. Final target is 688.
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@alphaticaio IMO you can't just talk about average trade size. Volume has to be in the conversation. Total $$$ is what matters. A lot of money seems to be on the sideline yet VIX is well under 20, implying there is certainty. Those do not match. Could keep going up or drop like a rock
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Yesterday: −$49.5 billion sell. Today: +$29 billion buy.
The tape flipped back in 24 hours. Again.
$60.8B in buy blocks. $31.8B in sells. Net flow: +$29.0B. Buy/sell ratio: 1.9 to 1.
Every single name on the top 8 is net buy. Not one seller.
$SPY +$5.82B (1,892 blocks)
$NVDA +$5.62B (714 blocks)
$AAPL +$4.82B (303 blocks)
$MSFT +$4.17B (324 blocks)
$AVGO +$3.35B (323 blocks)
$AMZN +$2.87B (268 blocks)
$QQQ +$2.38B (1,337 blocks)
$MU +$2.38B (816 blocks)
The 24-hour swings are staggering:
NVDA: −$7.4B yesterday → +$5.6B today. $13B swing.
AAPL: −$5.4B yesterday → +$4.8B today. $10B swing.
MSFT: −$2.7B yesterday → +$4.2B today. $7B swing.
The same names that got liquidated yesterday are being bought back today. That's not a change in thesis, that's institutions using the ceasefire panic to reload at lower prices.
But the warning from this morning still stands. NYSE closed at 0.51x. The average stock is still selling. The tape is buying mega-caps while everything else bleeds. This is concentrated, not broad.
Institutional avg ticket: $45,703, the highest we've recorded in this series. SPY avg ticket: $1,001,076. Over a million dollars per trade. That's not retail chasing the bounce.
The tape doesn't have an opinion. It has a receipt.
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$SPY looks like it’ll be more consolidation in the range boys and girls. Let’s see what we get tomorrow.
Bassem@Basssem666
$SPY closed under 706 and the 5 dma. This should trigger more selling next. The volume was weak today however, so I won’t rush to call a top for this move yet. Also keep in mind that price is at a support range between 703-698. Until it breaks we can still consolidate. The daily close isn’t bullish nonetheless. Swinging the core position and the rest is cash. Let’s see what we get tomorrow.
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@fit_businessman @zegakai40109 If only my May 8th Puts had a day to screw off as well. 😅
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@zegakai40109 @SlawnySteve Exactly!! Markets believe Trump has control. Unfortunately market is wrong. Trump doesn’t get to just walk away and strait opens. Iran knows they have the leverage here. Will Iran show up at negotiations? Doubtful. Why would they? Market has a free day to screw off today.
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$SPY Systematics mainly inactive today.
Yesterday;
-CTA $2B BUY
(Total positioning ~$52B)
CTA are largely at end of buying
($8B buying power from 99%ile)
-Vol Control $9B BUY
(Total positioning ~$140B)
VCF forecasted buyer through next Wednesday if rVOL remains subdued (“IF”)— missles shot= rVOL⬆️ sell
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@MichaelPBento Markets seem to see this going 1 of 2 ways. A deal gets done or Trump takes over the Strait with force. Either way, it happens quickly. The market doesn't care about Iran nukes, boots on the ground or anything else. If Iran had any chance of dragging it out, oil would be up big.
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You can tell by the comments tonight that the permabull kids who were talking smack last week are getting a little nervous going into this week.
GIF
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@DarioCpx Markets seem to see this going 1 of 2 ways. A deal gets done or Trump takes over the Strait with force. Either way, it happens quickly. The market doesn't care about Iran nukes or anything else. If Iran had any chance of dragging it out, markets would be down big. IMO
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If you wonder why oil futures aren’t trading at a much higher level already but instead it looks like they stalled at 88$, the reason is a horde of people trying to defend their shorts 👇🏻
JustDario 🏊♂️@DarioCpx
This is remarkable ⚠️: on Friday the market closed NET SHORT ~55k WTI June 26 contracts In aggregate, not only is this already a ~300m$ loss based on weekend prices, but the perfect setup for a short squeeze as soon as Globex futures resume trading in ~12 hours
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