Smart Dumb Man

My fourth grader came home and said he made $80 dollars selling snacks in the bathroom over the past two weeks. He does this in the bathroom so the teachers don't see him. He said he wins the snacks from being top grade in the class on quizzes each week, and/or gets them from other students who don't want their snacks at lunch. I said to this, "Uh huh...great story." He said, "No, for reals. I'm not lying." I said, "Show me the money." He then proceeds to pull out 4 x $20 bills from his backpack. After the initial shock of it, I ask, "What kids walk around school with $20 dollar bills?" He said "They don't. Whatever they give me, I save up and take to the lunch lady, and she trades for $20's." He then proceeds to hand me the money and says, "Can you buy me $20 of Robux in my account, and then put the rest in my Solana Backpack?" I just stood there for a minute in shock. I then realized he's already learned to hustle, money-launder, and invest. I couldn't be more proud.

@CryptoKaleo What can other chains do that Solana cannot? Things have largely gone under the radar. For instance, everyone all excited over Hyperliquid for listing stocks + pre-IPO stocks. But they been on Jupiter for 9 months already.

Honest question: What is the primary bull case for Solana now with pump fun opening the doors to EVM chains & USDC?

+ Google Omni

@austincampbell L1's are simply driven by the demand for the apps & products in the ecosystem. (i.e. just like foreign currencies) ETH's onchain z-scores map very closely with price, and often precede its price action.

So I've gotten a bunch of counter-arguments here that I think have made me dramatically more bearish about ETH. The market seems to agree: ETH hit an ATH in the 4000s in 2021, recovered only to that same level in 2025, but has fallen back down and is not recovering. BTC got into the low 60k range in 2021, then hit the 120s in 2025, and now sits at roughly $77k, well above the 2021 ATH, and vastly outperforming ETH over that timeframe. Why? If you don't think there will be a future link to ETH collecting fees, you are essentially saying ETH will have value because people want to own it, and they want to own it because it has value. This is a fundamentally circular argument. The idea that they are valued by "the economies they enable" is simply not going to be true over the long run; power is valued by the cost of generation and relative other uses of capital, not by the size of the "economy it enables", otherwise electricity would be the most expensive thing in the world. I propose most of ETH's current value is from people who believed the network will grow to become a significant part of the financial future and that ETH itself will somehow be able to collect fees, rents, or other value in the form of accrual to ETH in that world. If that's not true, then it's an open question why the token has much value at all? It probably shouldn't! If it's just some sort of very low cost fee thing without clear value accrual, it should be valued like electricity: pure marginal supply and demand, which also means ETH needs to definitely drive way, way, way more activity and way, way, way more consumer adoption, so the recent EF proposals are a negative. In the case of BTC, it's clear that value comes from a psychological belief in the monetary premium, though also worth noting that the only asset that has sustained that belief over time in the history of man is gold. BTC has not been trading well as a chaos hedge, and some are starting to revisit this thesis (see @mcuban) and I would also take that as signal. Put differently: if your value thesis for crypto is that it's going to re-write the fundamental laws of economics and investing, I'm going to bet on those and not the price of the token.

A few things. 1) It's multi-chain and integrates with various apps like some Zcash wallets. 2) They have confidential txns, so + privacy narrative. 3) The bigger narrative though is AI Agentic use. They are plugged into IronClaw for one. And combining this with their "intents" structure, they are setup very well for Agents. Intents are just the english version of a multi-hop txn, kind of like ChatGPT is the english version of build whatever tool you want. Lastly, onchain activity is confirming price movement.

@SmartDumbMan Can you share anything good about the $NEAR narrative? $HYPE $ZEC I understand. I should just ask AI lol

In crypto land... $HYPE $ZEC

@TedHZhang Yeah, TON looks good. I'm not a fan of the use case around Telegram tho. The other 3 are pretty straight forward with a narrative to go along with the price structure.

@SmartDumbMan $TON as well

Weekly crypto z-scores update: $BTC (composite) - Still meh. $ETH - Still ugly long term, but 2/6 looks decent. $NEAR - Spiking up on all timeframes, confirming price move. Higher. $SUI - Spiking up on 2 of 3 timeframes. Added to my watchlist. Next to run?

Four charts I'm watching. $MON - Looking for some strength to verify done consolidating. $AKT - Chunk of overhead resistance, but could run on AI compute narrative. $PENGU - Sitting right on support. $CARDS - Seems inevitable to run to ATH's.

@Dentoshi Some overlap with my list. x.com/SmartDumbMan/s…

if anyone has opinions on why some are better than others fundamentally, i'm all ears

Only a few Altcoins have; - Good EMA structure - Above Y/O - Constructive PA Expecting slow summer with chop/down (depending on macro/ $ES) but a few outperformers that put in good structures earlier than others.

@WClemente + No one will remember you 50 years after you die, including your great grand children. Great ideas get remembered, but not names (outside of 5-10 per generation).

When you put it into the context that you’re going to die, everything seems a lot less stressful. Nervous to talk to someone? Nervous to try something? Who cares! you’re gonna die at some point, could be tomorrow.

Here is my crypto watchlist for this cycle. $BTC - Duh $ETH - It's down, but not out. Probably won't be the fastest horse. Still solid for now. $HYPE - Kicking off the bull market. At least 70% of the TradFi traders I follow have it on their list. It is the hot theme to gain Wall Street's attention. $MON - New kid on the block $SOL - My home chain. You can talk shit about Solana all you want, but the non-stop developer ethos will keep it at the forefront. Price will catch up. You can do everything on it from trading preStocks to TCG's. $SUI - Lessor new kid on the block. Still interesting with their tech stack. $ZEC - Private, quantum resistant Bitcoin $AKT - OG shared compute chain $DOGE + $FARTCOIN - Monitoring for retail meme activity $LINK - Oracle data integrated into everything $LTC - Monitoring big fat multi-year triangle pattern, probably a late cycle play, if it does play out at all. $NEAR - AI + Intents + Privacy $PENGU - Don't fade the penguins $PRIME + $PROMPT - The Parallel/Wayfinder team keeps adapting and shipping. Severely underrated. TCG + AI + Gaming $VVV - Catching mainstream adoption via private AI LLM's. $XRP - Monitoring. Ripple sucks, but it is still big in Korea and this meme coin never dies. Solana + Sui altcoins: Most are real businesses or major product integrations, but as with all altcoins, it doesn't necessarily translate to token value accrual.

It is time.

The overlay of YoY inflation from 1967-1984 with 2015-Present is kind of crazy. The obvious logic is the Straight of Hormuz closure will cause this. Normally the obvious doesn't happen, but everyone has been fading it. The U.S. is a net exporter of lite oil only (gasoline, cars), so we have the means to stabilize gas prices. However, the U.S. is a net importer of crude oil (jet + diesel). This makes it an input into every product, and inventories are steadily being drawn down. Combine this with fertilizer supply also being capped from the straight closure + the nationwide U.S. drought... And it's going to be a very rough period, prolly starting in late July.

Sold half my $NEAR position for now. Same logic...me being greedy and will rebuy on pullback (hopefully it doesn't just run). + 50% move already. Never entered on $AKT, but still watching.

The part of the cycle where my greediness kicks in and I close my lev long positions on $HYPE + $ZEC as they tag new highs, so that I can buy back lower.

I decided to try out the new @ComicBook gacha machine. Only complaint I have is 5 of my 6 tries were Pokemon cards vs 1 comic. Was expecting more comics. Otherwise, the Solana USDC integration was seemless. No login required. In the end, kept these two pulls.

I think $MON might finally be done screwing around.