Sminston With 👁

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Sminston With 👁@sminston_with·5h

@QuintenFrancois No one said Bitcoin Summer = Green Summer 😂🙌🏻

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Quinten | 048.eth@QuintenFrancois·21h

This sideways summer is doing exactly what it’s supposed to do Bore you, wear you down The market doesn’t need to scare you out It just needs to exhaust you

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Sminston With 👁@sminston_with·5h

I especially love every single one of you Englishmen who didn't take themselves too seriously with this. It's a joke for God's sake. One that's as much on me (the American) as it is on you. Cheers, mates 💪🏻🇬🇧

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Sminston With 👁@sminston_with·13h

I love you Brits, But your days of getting by with saying regular stuff but making it sound profound due to your accent are OVER. You had me for a while

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Sminston With 👁@sminston_with·6h

@CryptoMilkyBay I'm sorry man I really just want representation for my taxation

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CRYPTO MilkyBay@CryptoMilkyBay·9h

@sminston_with Twat TA is all ur virtue Stay in ur lane stay ur course

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Sminston With 👁@sminston_with·6h

@decodejar Most likely

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Decode@decodejar·6h

@sminston_with It's the sound of education.

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Sminston With 👁@sminston_with·6h

@voidcompiler Who. You?

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Void Compiler 💾⚡@voidcompiler·8h

@sminston_with One is not amused.

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Sminston With 👁@sminston_with·6h

@Lesh86635750 @BitcoinArchive Never agreed with anything more in my life

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Lesh@Lesh86635750·9h

@BitcoinArchive @sminston_with Bitcoin will definitely hit $1M when it hits $1M. Duh.

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Sminston With 👁 retweetledi

Bitcoin Archive@BitcoinArchive·12h

WHEN WILL BITCOIN HIT $1m? In this interview with @Sminston_With we discuss: - Power Law timeline for $1m BTC - What could break the Power Law - Compare models: S-curve vs S2F vs Power Law youtu.be/xQpYpGQhQ7A

YouTube

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Sminston With 👁@sminston_with·6h

@SueHodgkins3 Fully agree and fully welcomed 😄 cheers. Thars a great show BTW.

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Sean Hodgkins 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿@SueHodgkins3·9h

@sminston_with The joke works when we are taking the piss out of our selves (see Blackadder, Monty Python). Though It can be modified for a US audience (see the Office US)

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Sminston With 👁@sminston_with·10h

@SueHodgkins3 It's a joke

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Sean Hodgkins 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿@SueHodgkins3·10h

@sminston_with We don't care what you think.

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Sminston With 👁@sminston_with·10h

@JamesEastonUK @BitcoinArchive 😊

QME

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James@JamesEastonUK·11h

@sminston_with @BitcoinArchive LFG! Looking forward to watching this 🦾

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Bitcoin Archive@BitcoinArchive

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Sminston With 👁@sminston_with·11h

Meeting @BitcoinArchive for the first time IRL was amazing! Smart, fun and engaging person all around and no wonder his pod is taking off. Here's our conversation from when we met in Prague recently, hope you enjoy as much as I did: x.com/i/status/20764…

WHEN WILL BITCOIN HIT $1m? In this interview with @Sminston_With we discuss: - Power Law timeline for $1m BTC - What could break the Power Law - Compare models: S-curve vs S2F vs Power Law youtu.be/xQpYpGQhQ7A

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Sminston With 👁@sminston_with·10h

@nostrnaut Damn that's... beautiful 😄 I don't know how you do it

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nostrnaut@nostrnaut·10h

@sminston_with If you can talk with crowds and keep your virtue, Or walk with Kings—nor lose the common touch… If you can fill the unforgiving minute With sixty seconds’ worth of distance run, Yours is the Earth and everything that’s in it, And—which is more—you’ll be a Man, my son

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Sminston With 👁@sminston_with·12h

@BitcoinArchive You the man Archie! This was so fun and a great honor to be with you in Prague 🤝🏻

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Sminston With 👁@sminston_with·12h

@tbur23 Haha it's all in good fun. Love you guys

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Burlington@tbur23·12h

@sminston_with And we MAY start taking you lot seriously when you stop saying dumb shit like “I could care less”

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Sminston With 👁@sminston_with·13h

@triggers40 I'm onto you

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Agent🔛Catnip@triggers40·13h

@sminston_with 🤏🎩 mere trickery upon the ear young scamp

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Sminston With 👁@sminston_with·1d

Nobody can confidently point to a specific number with much precision, way to much variation and inaccessible data But given the marginal cost of prod relationship to most commodity prices, and given Bitcoin difficulty difficulty, it's a reasonable inference, but to me I assume more of a range.

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𝐓𝐗𝐌𝐂@TXMCtrades·2d

@sminston_with How does anyone actually know this to be true

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Sminston With 👁@sminston_with·2d

It would appear we are probably more or less at Bitcoin's marginal cost of production.

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Sminston With 👁@sminston_with·1d

@LukeDavisgrey AI does seem to be the current anomaly

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Luke ₿@LukeDavisgrey·2d

@sminston_with The real question is if this works like every other cycle or breaks down like the m2 coorilation because all the stimulus is going straight to ai and nothing is flowing to the consumer

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Sminston With 👁@sminston_with·2d

Who's ready for an update on this one? Looks like copper/gold has had a proper bounce.

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Sminston With 👁@sminston_with·1d

@dotkrueger Dope

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Fred Krueger #BIP-110@dotkrueger·1d

very cool research and animation.

J. Homan@TheHomanQuant

So how painful was this MSTR bear? I did some simulations. MSTR closed at $473.83 on Nov 20, 2024. Standing at that peak, I resampled its bitcoin era monthly returns into 1,000 random futures and let them run 20 months, using only data available before that day. Then I drew what actually happened on top. Reality landed in the 2nd percentile. 21 of the 1,000 simulated paths ended below where the stock trades now. The median path ended near $1,598 because the inputs carry the full drift of the 2020 to 2024 run up. To me that is the lesson. A dumb model with no opinion still put about a 1 in 48 chance on an outcome this bad or worse. The narrative at the peak put zero. Method is on the chart: monthly closes, split adjusted, bootstrap with no drift adjustment, log scale. Would you have taken 48 to 1 against this outcome in November 2024?

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