Everyone's Chacha

@MaliniP well done ma'am. As a fellow Agusta patrakar I am proud of you. @Outlookindia

@addheeraj The very fact that he is forced to admit that BJP is doing better than 2021 means that BJP is going to end up with close to 100 or even 100+ in phase 1.

Basic fact check:90% of M voters in this phase was concentrated in 39 seats, where they are a virtual majority. So it doesnt matter if 97%M came out, or 80%M, BJP was never winning this seats. This shows that rest of the arguments are also random BS in line with his leanings

@partha2019LS If a TMC supporter is forced to admit that BJP is doing better than 2021 then it is guranteed that BJP is getting 100+ in phase 1.

1st Phase Bengal : My Understanding and observation : AITC - 80 -86 BJP - 66- 72 Others - 0 In the 1st Phase average Muslim voters were 27-29% Non Muslim voters were 72-74% If 100 Muslim voters are there in the voter list then 95-97% came to vote [ Note : In Assam, Bengali Speaking Muslim also voted in the same manner] If 100 Non Muslim voters are there in the voter list 90-92% came to vote. AITC got around 80-85% of the Muslim votes (much higher than in 2021 Assembly and 2024 Parliament election) People feel harassed by SIR process. People felt that if they dont vote this time, their existence will be in crisis. Their name will be removed from the voter list. Their Bank account will be freezed and so on. They came by spending amount from their pocket to vote. Exactly how these non muslim migrant workers voted is a question mark. AITC is definitely facing an anti incumbency among middle class (similar like 2024 LS election) but there is no positive votes for BJP. [Note : In 2019 LS, Balakot impact was clearly there - a positive vote for Modi ji. Also the emotion for Modi ji is drying up]. BJP is solely dependent on anti incumbency vote, no other factor is helping. AITC introduced Laxmi Bhandar in 2021 Feb. That is creating a resistance for TMC which was missing in 2019 LS election. The political and social situation at Bangladesh, Assam, Jharkhand, Odisha and Bihar (Neighbouring country and State) is not helping BJP to fuel more polarization The ground organization is missing for BJP. There is less religious polarization as comapred to 2019 LS election.

@YashMor5 @Warrior_Mukul That was the reason given while demanding OROP. Now you want NFU too. It has to be NFU or OROP. It cant be both.

Excellent analysis, every point clarified with logical reasoning. Grant of NFU is a must for the forces where the bulk of the officers' don't make it to selection grade due to a very steep organisation pyramid. @Warrior_Mukul and a few like him have been waging a passionate battle in the courts.

@Ra_Bies @theskindoctor13 His childhood crush is Rajdeep Sardesai.

@theskindoctor13 Why dreading on your childhood crush joining BJP

If BJP wins Bengal, they will most likely try to break TMC’s Rajya Sabha MPs too in their attempt to reach a two-thirds majority in the House. I’m dreading the possibility of Sagarika Ghose joining the BJP.

@maryashakil All correct except AAP was not created to fight BJP. It was created in response to the humongous corruption of the party in power at that time the congress

It began as a movement. Anna Hazare’s stage, candlelight marches, the promise of a politics that was different. Arvind Kejriwal built AAP on the idea that honest people could change a corrupt system. Today, 7 of his own Rajya Sabha MPs including Raghav Chadha, the party’s youngest and most prominent face in the Upper House merged with the very party AAP was created to fight. Swati Maliwal, once Kejriwal’s appointee as Delhi Women’s Commission chief. Sandeep Pathak, the party’s national general secretary. All gone. The movement has become a cautionary tale. And the man who promised “politics of alternatives” is left with almost no one in Parliament’s Upper House to make that case.

@kashyaplove @bhupendrachaube @BJP4India The brother in law of Aatishi Marlena didnt ask this right question when they were in AAP.

@bhupendrachaube @BJP4India That's a right question. But then, notwithstanding these corrupts there - still the party called it Kattar Imandar Party.

At some stage, @BJP4India must ask itself a simple question. How can those who are perceived to be “corrupt “ like some in this picture, end up being welcomed like a hero and that too by none less than the party president ? A trend which started in Assam, West Bengal , Maharashtra now seems to have reached Punjab! From the late Ajit Pawar to Praful patel to Chaggan Bhujbal, to top BJP leaders now who were earlier in other parties in Assam / West Bengal and now Ashok Mittal who was just being raided by agencies !!! Power corrupts , Absolute power corrupts absolutely

@ipsvijrk It may be perfectly legal but it is also blatantly unethical to bring in some one from outside when when cadre officers struggle for promotions.

It is perfectly legal to appoint COs and DIGs on deputation to the CAPFs!

@kaylee_ashlynn For the same reason you europeans came to America.

If India isn’t a hellhole then why’d you all leave to come here?

@SandeepMall Win or lose BJP puts this much of effort in every election.

I don't think this much of effort BJP put to win national election. And if by any chance Didi still wins it will be massive

@_sabanaqvi You never say no to a gift

I wonder why BJP needed a diversion from its fabulous win in Bengal to its poaching of AAP MPs and Raghav Chadha gang ….

@sharmanagendar They merged after declaring themselves as the original party.

No. Constitutionally, merger can't be of a group. Only the original party can merge ! * Case of disqualification before the RS chairperson * & Illegal Merger before the court.

@Antardrshti @RikkyTweets Just remember how congress supporters celebrated 99 seats after being out of power for 10 years. Some would laugh at that. But i would say that is the correct attitude. Learn to enjoy small victories.The bigger one will come if not now then after 5 years.

@Antardrshti @RikkyTweets The problem with bjp supporters is either high ecstacy or gloom and doom nothing in between. Yes not winning will be a setback but not an existential crises. BJP is in power at centre and 22 states. But if TMC loses its an existential crises for them.

🚨 New Prediction for West Bengal 2026 🚨 (And yes, BJP Bhaktas will actually thank me for this if they read the full analysis before checking the numbers at the end.) ✅ What has gone RIGHT for BJP so far 📈 Phase 1 Turnout was EXACTLY in BJP’s sweet spot which I had earlier said this:🔹 93% turnout → Clear BJP sweep. This is precisely the zone where BJP performs strongest in Bengal, especially with higher turnout in Hindu stronger belts and remember this was despite 100% Muslim + Alt-left consolidation behind TMC. 🛡️ EC & Central Forces actually did a decent job this time. For the first time in a long time, Mamata looked visibly nervous, agitated and under pressure. ⚔️ Gundagardi was MUCH lower than previous elections Did violence completely stop? ❌but compared to previous Bengal elections, the atmosphere was far more controlled and voters finally felt there was some protection available. That directly helped BJP’s silent voter turnout. ❓ What STILL remains a BIG question mark 🤐 Do voters REALLY trust BJP will protect them after results? This is still the biggest unknown. Many anti-TMC voters vote only if they believe BJP won’t abandon them after elections and leave them exposed to local retaliation. CRPF presence during voting helps. But the real question in Bengal is always: 👉 “Who protects me AFTER the results?” That silent psychology will decide whether BJP stops around 110… or crosses much higher territory. 👤 BJP still lacks a powerful Bengali counter-face to Mamata Unlike Kejriwal, whose 'honest man' image collapsed after liquor scam + ₹500 crore bungalow controversy, Mamata has largely escaped major personal-image destruction. Also, the lack of substantial visible action against her nephew helped TMC maintain its narrative. Like it or not, among many Bengali voters she still retains: ✔️ “Street fighter” image ✔️ Bengali Asmita appeal ✔️ Welfare-provider perception And BJP still hasn’t found a state leader with equal emotional pull. 🕌 Phase 2 is TMC’s REAL fortress. This is where things get dangerous for BJP. 📊 Phase 2 historical performance: BJP 2019 LS → 2/20 2021 Assembly → 19/142 2024 LS → 2/20 TMC 2019 LS → 18/20 2021 Assembly → 123/142 2024 LS → 18/20 This phase is where: ✔️ Muslim consolidation continues ✔️ Bengali Bhadralok vote leans TMC ✔️ Feminist narrative helps Mamata ✔️ Bengali identity politics dominates And knowing Mamata, she will go ALL OUT here to crush BJP momentum. ⛽ BJP’s own policy misfires hurt them A few things were underestimated: ❌ LPG shortage anger ❌ SIR confusion/deletions fears ❌ Some pro-BJP voters allegedly deleted too ❌ Fear psychosis pushing fence-sitters back to TMC ❌ CAA rollout disappointment among sections of Matua voters These are not massive individually. But together, they chip away at BJP’s edge in tight seats. 👩 The 'special Parliament session' move may have backfired badly. BJP’s desperate push for a special Parliament session just before elections, despite knowing the Women’s Reservation Bill would not realistically materialize immediately looked symbolic and rushed. Mamata countered brilliantly by highlighting: TMC has ~37% women MPs BJP has ~12% and TMC also distributed significantly more tickets to women candidates in Bengal. I am afraid, instead of helping BJP, the move strengthened Mamata’s narrative that BJP was doing tokenism while TMC was already implementing representation on the ground. Big strategic Self goal. 📊 OLD Prediction I had assumed BJP gets 68 seats from Phase 1 and 41 from Phase 2 🔥 REVISED Prediction BJP Phase 1 68 → 84 BJP Phase 2 41 → 30 🧮 Final Revised Projection TMC — 176 BJP — 114 Congress — 4 CPM+ — 0 Others — 0 💡 Final Note for BJP supporters There IS a silver lining. ✔️ BJP is performing noticeably better than 2021 in several regions ✔️ The ecosystem dominance of TMC is no longer absolute ✔️ BJP will win Big starting 2029 elections and form governmen in 2031 if they fail this time But emotionally, it is healthier to keep expectations realistic. Better to expect less and get positively surprised… than spend weeks being delusional about a guaranteed victory, get shocked on 4 May, and cry themselves to sleep. This analysis is not anti-BJP. It is exactly why BJP Bhaktas should thank me later.

@Arun_vish Satta bazaar is just about satta. People taking bets for quick money. They are not election experts.infact nobody is. Not even the so called psephologists who get most of their predictions wrong and once in a while get it right like a broken clock.

Satta bazaar predicted 350 seats for BJP in 2024, just saying.

@partha2019LS Everyone voted in huge nos. That's how you arrive at 93%.

Muslim and Tribals voted in huge number in the 1st phase of #WestBengalLegislativeAssemblyelection2026

@ajaykraina for instance in hindus dominated areas of darjeeling kalimpong siliguri the votes are within 80 to 90 range. But in muslim dominated areas like malda murshdabad the voting % is 95+. This indicates the election is polarised and hindus has come out to vote in large nos this time.

@ajaykraina Sinc roll has been cleaned up by removing dead and shifted voters the scope for what is called chappa vote has almost been eliminated. The votes has increased not just in % but in absolute numbers. This increased has been more in areas with significant muslim population.

West Bengal! Are we reading too much? WB has invariably voted in big numbers. It was 82%+ during 2021 elections. That means around 17 or 18 out of 100 recorded voters (in the voters list) didn't vote. Then SIR happened and it plucked 12% votes across the state. That means only 88 out of 100 were genuine in the voters list. Combine the two and you get more than 90% voting even in 2021 (give and take a few because of time lapse). So, is 91% polling as earth shattering as it is being made to be? Bano must go and that is what most of us want. I am just looking at the numbers!

@wanderlust1587 @sarkar_swati Only people who are saying EVM can be replaced are those who dont know the process. Since i hv been involved in counting i know it is near impossible to replace.

@sarkar_swati How about allegations of evm replacements? Theoretically not possible but can it be done practically with some malpractices?

Bengalis generally vote if they are allowed to and if they are in town. If they are not allowed then their votes are Chappaed. Either way votes are cast. Those who are not in town did not vote earlier. Now many are returning to vote. This may be why Hindu voting percentage has increased. Muslims always voted in high numbers. Increase in Hindu voting percentage can only help BJP because Bengali Hindus have voted lot more for BJP than TMC. It would also help left.

@wanderlust1587 @sarkar_swati Its very difficult.The EVM Sr no is hard coded on the machine. The Sr no alloted to each booth is known from ECI officials to polling agents of candidates. At the time of counting the EVM sr no is checking by presiding officer and counting agents.

@my_musings_ind @DebjaniBhatta20 @ViewsPrecious The EVMs sr no month and year of manufacturing factory where it made is all hardcoded in the evm. So simply changing the outer no plate is not sufficient. As you said everyone from ECI official to booth agent of all candidates will hv to fall in line for it to go undetected.

@DebjaniBhatta20 @ViewsPrecious No Swapping an Electronic Voting Machine isn’t just replacing a box, you’d have to bypass seals, serial tracking, agent verification, turnout records, and VVPAT audits simultaneously. Too many checks... Very hard to go undetected unless everyone from top to bottom is complicit.

Is it true that the EVM number remains written on a plate which is detachable from the EVM with small, simple tools like screwdriver etc.? If true, then does it mean that the number plate of one EVM can easily be detached & re-fixed on a different EVM? Does it also mean that the polled EVMs' number plates can be fixed to some other pre-formatted EVMs? Request @ECISVEEP @CEOWestBengal to kindly note that the ruling administrative machinery of West Bengal has brainstormed heavily to find out various methods of forgery. As an Independent Researcher, I have followed, studied & realized various steps of manipulation and forgery as practiced here in West Bengal. Please abort all those steps of forgery.