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@BeaverTime69 @ZeMirch @Pivot922 @plur_daddy

@SoftServedGummy @ZeMirch @Pivot922 @plur_daddy Bro

Equity bears are at the brink of insanity given resilience in the indices, but odds of a breakdown are increasing now. Equities top slowly as passive flows and rotational dynamics can hold up indices for a long time. There are many structural forces rigged to push them higher, and thus it takes a lot to make them go down. Over the course of an equity bull market, buy-the-dip behavior continually gets reinforced, and the majority of capital will be controlled by adherents to this mantra. In theory, the longer prices remain coiled, the larger the move once they exit the range. This nuke in gold suggests there are liquidity issues brewing under the surface. It feels like a preview of what is going to happen to crowded trades. My theory is the Middle East is selling gold to shore up capital, as they have lost their revenue, and have many expenses around defence. They will also need to rebuild lost energy infra, and eventually, new pipelines to reroute around Hormuz. The buyback window is starting to close, and the sugar rush of higher-than-usual tax refunds is starting to fade. Retail has been a key marginal buyer of equities in these past weeks, and the fading of the tax refund tailwind is critical. The market is gradually coming to terms with the fact that this conflict may last for a long time. On a conventional level, the US and Israel have completely dominated Iran, but Iran has an asymmetric edge when it comes to controlling world oil prices through Hormuz. Trump can still end it, but the issue is that the US cannot simply leave, a ceasefire with Iran must be struck in order to guarantee that Hormuz is reopened. In order to strike a ceasefire, Iran wants to see a guarantee that the US and Israel won't attack them again (at a bare minimum), and it will be difficult for the US to get Israel to agree to that. Trump is used to being able to quickly maneuver according to his whims, as he did with tariffs, but the complex interlocking physical realities of war are different. Oil shocks often contribute to the end of bull markets, since they constrain consumer spending, hit manufacturing, and lower the ability of central banks to offer support. Indeed, the Fed came out slightly hawkish yesterday, and Powell also hinted that he may stay in his Governor seat post his role as Chair ending, which would constrain Trump's plans to unleash liquidity. We have a stronger dollar and long duration bond yields are going up over the world, which tightens liquidity. The Middle East is tight on money now and they were the marginal bidder in many assets. In particular, they were a key funder for AI capex through their investments in the frontier labs. They've been 40-50% of recent big rounds. Remember other deep pockets like Softbank are close to being tapped out. Any dollar that goes into these rounds will have to come out of something else, like liquid stocks (look at my pinned post for this broader thesis). And if we have any signs of risk to AI capex expectations, this will be a major shift that the market needs to contemplate. I've said this before, but puts are a difficult way to express bearish equity views because timing is so uncertain. Equities can hold on for a long time, because they are structurally rigged to go higher. Easier expressions are simply being in cash, or gradually shorting cash stocks over time, which helps avoid getting chopped. This is a very difficult market, stay safe out there.

@flocko @PinoAmericano If we can get the mayors wife to hate immigrants she’d be the best president of my life time

@PinoAmericano NYC is also available if they prefer a Muslim caliphate instead

If you hate what Trump is doing so much, then pick your ass up and move to California and enjoy the alternative. High prices, high taxes, immigration non-enforcement, trans derangement, and everything else you hate about Trump awaits you in that liberal oasis.

Gotta fire Hubert Davis for the collapse

@angelicwaves Hot

i am not joking, full set will be out in 1-2 weeks

@ZeMirch @Pivot922 @plur_daddy My favorite team just blew a 19pt lead and lost in OT

@SoftServedGummy @Pivot922 @plur_daddy honestly impressive

@UNC_Basketball @WellsFargo We have to fire this DEI hire and get a real fucking coach

Final. #CarolinaFamily | @WellsFargo

@netanyahu please make the coins go up the goy are going insane

$700

Silly lovable men and the women who haunt them

Guy with 1/6th of a personality (stolen from his college girlfriend) who can’t fucking wait for Dune 3 swears it will get Timberlan Chamalot the Emmy win

@flocko alternative just ask them how they aren't rich while laughing then go enjoy your afternoon with the other poors

If you trap a boomer in a one-on-one argument for an entire afternoon you can eventually get them to acknowledge how crazy the job market for young white men is. However the effects only last for ~12 hours and the next morning they will text you "how can't you find a job?"

Hype going to $100 would be extremely good for LIT because then it might go to $2

@0xMerp So everyone gets to eat babies and pillage the west but I can’t live to 200?

You have to be so retarded to think that it would be a good thing for humans to beat death

are these instagram chicks finally starting to realize their "therapists" are just scamming them?

congrats! how long is the exclusive license for? surely there’s a ton of other exchanges that also want to use this. regardless, giant W being the first!

@BeaverTime69 I hate dook so god damn much why could these losers give me this

@SoftServedGummy Their one chance to escape the permanent underclass, squandered

“Hey Siena you have the chance to become legendary and maybe not spend the rest of your life working in a factory” *lays down and blows a double digit lead like pussies*

@rawsalerts Patriots

🚨#BREAKING: Tennessee Republicans have advanced a bill that would create a public list of transgender residents,

@no_1_stan_acct IM GETTING SMOKED

“The post-employment economy” looks a lot like me getting washed for 4 figures because I played March Madness Selection Sunday ticket roulette and WAS REALLY CLOZE TO WINNING

It’s a gambling tournament for me. Good thing I fucking suck at gambling