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KreiaCapital
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KreiaCapital
@BeaverTime69
the only reason I am not the most cynical man alive is because I am barely alive
The Woods Katılım Ocak 2026
112 Takip Edilen36 Takipçiler

@0xFrenxbtdotxrp @liberal_party Going to like every one of these posts
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yep bottom on crypto moon it all 1000x on every coin no red candles ever
Tokens on Solana@tokens
JUST IN: Hyperliquid now trades more oil, gold, and silver than crypto.
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Equity bears are at the brink of insanity given resilience in the indices, but odds of a breakdown are increasing now.
Equities top slowly as passive flows and rotational dynamics can hold up indices for a long time. There are many structural forces rigged to push them higher, and thus it takes a lot to make them go down. Over the course of an equity bull market, buy-the-dip behavior continually gets reinforced, and the majority of capital will be controlled by adherents to this mantra. In theory, the longer prices remain coiled, the larger the move once they exit the range.
This nuke in gold suggests there are liquidity issues brewing under the surface. It feels like a preview of what is going to happen to crowded trades. My theory is the Middle East is selling gold to shore up capital, as they have lost their revenue, and have many expenses around defence. They will also need to rebuild lost energy infra, and eventually, new pipelines to reroute around Hormuz.
The buyback window is starting to close, and the sugar rush of higher-than-usual tax refunds is starting to fade. Retail has been a key marginal buyer of equities in these past weeks, and the fading of the tax refund tailwind is critical.
The market is gradually coming to terms with the fact that this conflict may last for a long time. On a conventional level, the US and Israel have completely dominated Iran, but Iran has an asymmetric edge when it comes to controlling world oil prices through Hormuz. Trump can still end it, but the issue is that the US cannot simply leave, a ceasefire with Iran must be struck in order to guarantee that Hormuz is reopened. In order to strike a ceasefire, Iran wants to see a guarantee that the US and Israel won't attack them again (at a bare minimum), and it will be difficult for the US to get Israel to agree to that. Trump is used to being able to quickly maneuver according to his whims, as he did with tariffs, but the complex interlocking physical realities of war are different.
Oil shocks often contribute to the end of bull markets, since they constrain consumer spending, hit manufacturing, and lower the ability of central banks to offer support. Indeed, the Fed came out slightly hawkish yesterday, and Powell also hinted that he may stay in his Governor seat post his role as Chair ending, which would constrain Trump's plans to unleash liquidity.
We have a stronger dollar and long duration bond yields are going up over the world, which tightens liquidity. The Middle East is tight on money now and they were the marginal bidder in many assets. In particular, they were a key funder for AI capex through their investments in the frontier labs. They've been 40-50% of recent big rounds. Remember other deep pockets like Softbank are close to being tapped out. Any dollar that goes into these rounds will have to come out of something else, like liquid stocks (look at my pinned post for this broader thesis). And if we have any signs of risk to AI capex expectations, this will be a major shift that the market needs to contemplate.
I've said this before, but puts are a difficult way to express bearish equity views because timing is so uncertain. Equities can hold on for a long time, because they are structurally rigged to go higher. Easier expressions are simply being in cash, or gradually shorting cash stocks over time, which helps avoid getting chopped. This is a very difficult market, stay safe out there.
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@GrandTheftAutz @icannotlie22 Why are you looking at midcaps?
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@icannotlie22 I saw mayhem mode take a coin to 3 figure market cap today lol
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sunshine has mercifully returned to my homeland
time to really enjoy my neet life and teach myself the finer skills of gardening and crop propagation
trading will always be here, will come back at a later time with a fresh mind and prove to myself that i can still be the profitable trader i used to be
market is ass and my mindset is even worse - touching grass but checking twitter and charts periodically is honestly just as bad for me as it was scanning coins and trading charts daily
props to you if you're slogging away at it rn

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@flocko @passcoderonald Why does feels guy (bottom right) look like he's getting raped in that photo
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@passcoderonald every single day it's just some variation of this by the most retarded person you know

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If we lose in 2028 we’re getting Soviet Dekulakization
Joel Webbon@JoelWebbon
Prediction: We get crushed in 2026 and 2028. America First replaces MAGA in 2032. Stay the course.
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@Pooorad @BigTrout300 Can't wait to beat my meat to this later
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@lesabrefomo @thokani It's probably a much, much chopper journey though and not worth the mental bandwidth compared to easier shorts
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@lesabrefomo @thokani I'd agree with that, there are definitely at least a few alts that are "close at zero" type shorts, and shorting HYPE is something I have zero feel for, but if I had tonchose between shorting BTC or HYPE here with a "close at the cycle bottom" target I'd pick hype
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@0xbigmikey Maybe touch some grass with Mel? He seriously needs some help rn
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@thokani @lesabrefomo It's been the "flee to safety" asset ever since 10/10 /bear market started, if everything keeps going down (as they do in bears), eventually even the flight to safety asset gets fled...and when it does it is vicious
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yeah thats the reason im short btc is down 50% and hype has been going on a very good streak outpeforming everything because of metals first then oil and now the sp500
pretty much tapped every tradfi angle possible and now it just seems like nothing bigger will come off 2x off floor i just dont see a reason for it to continue going eventually the btc fatigue will effect hype
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Trump is getting a lot of valuable intel on who is truly on his side both on the global & domestic level.
As Machiavelli said, adversity is the only reliable test of allegiance, because in peacetime every prince has abundant allies.
Trump may not have started this war for this purpose, but 3 weeks in, every player's hand is now face-up on the table.
Expect retribution after this.
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