KreiaCapital

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KreiaCapital

KreiaCapital

@BeaverTime69

the only reason I am not the most cynical man alive is because I am barely alive

The Woods Katılım Ocak 2026
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KreiaCapital
KreiaCapital@BeaverTime69·
held together by rage and anger -every day is agony -existence is pain Darth Sion Mode 2026
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Liberal Party
Liberal Party@liberal_party·
Tomorrow, the next Canada Child Benefit goes out to parents across Canada, putting more money in your pockets to help with the costs of raising a family. As we build a stronger economy, Mark Carney and our Liberal government are protecting the programs that support Canadians.
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plur daddy
plur daddy@plur_daddy·
Equity bears are at the brink of insanity given resilience in the indices, but odds of a breakdown are increasing now. Equities top slowly as passive flows and rotational dynamics can hold up indices for a long time. There are many structural forces rigged to push them higher, and thus it takes a lot to make them go down. Over the course of an equity bull market, buy-the-dip behavior continually gets reinforced, and the majority of capital will be controlled by adherents to this mantra. In theory, the longer prices remain coiled, the larger the move once they exit the range. This nuke in gold suggests there are liquidity issues brewing under the surface. It feels like a preview of what is going to happen to crowded trades. My theory is the Middle East is selling gold to shore up capital, as they have lost their revenue, and have many expenses around defence. They will also need to rebuild lost energy infra, and eventually, new pipelines to reroute around Hormuz. The buyback window is starting to close, and the sugar rush of higher-than-usual tax refunds is starting to fade. Retail has been a key marginal buyer of equities in these past weeks, and the fading of the tax refund tailwind is critical. The market is gradually coming to terms with the fact that this conflict may last for a long time. On a conventional level, the US and Israel have completely dominated Iran, but Iran has an asymmetric edge when it comes to controlling world oil prices through Hormuz. Trump can still end it, but the issue is that the US cannot simply leave, a ceasefire with Iran must be struck in order to guarantee that Hormuz is reopened. In order to strike a ceasefire, Iran wants to see a guarantee that the US and Israel won't attack them again (at a bare minimum), and it will be difficult for the US to get Israel to agree to that. Trump is used to being able to quickly maneuver according to his whims, as he did with tariffs, but the complex interlocking physical realities of war are different. Oil shocks often contribute to the end of bull markets, since they constrain consumer spending, hit manufacturing, and lower the ability of central banks to offer support. Indeed, the Fed came out slightly hawkish yesterday, and Powell also hinted that he may stay in his Governor seat post his role as Chair ending, which would constrain Trump's plans to unleash liquidity. We have a stronger dollar and long duration bond yields are going up over the world, which tightens liquidity. The Middle East is tight on money now and they were the marginal bidder in many assets. In particular, they were a key funder for AI capex through their investments in the frontier labs. They've been 40-50% of recent big rounds. Remember other deep pockets like Softbank are close to being tapped out. Any dollar that goes into these rounds will have to come out of something else, like liquid stocks (look at my pinned post for this broader thesis). And if we have any signs of risk to AI capex expectations, this will be a major shift that the market needs to contemplate. I've said this before, but puts are a difficult way to express bearish equity views because timing is so uncertain. Equities can hold on for a long time, because they are structurally rigged to go higher. Easier expressions are simply being in cash, or gradually shorting cash stocks over time, which helps avoid getting chopped. This is a very difficult market, stay safe out there.
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real
real@icannotlie22·
This shouldn’t even be possible on a 10k shitter lmao
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The Wheeler Dealer 🌍
The Wheeler Dealer 🌍@WheelerrDealerr·
sunshine has mercifully returned to my homeland time to really enjoy my neet life and teach myself the finer skills of gardening and crop propagation trading will always be here, will come back at a later time with a fresh mind and prove to myself that i can still be the profitable trader i used to be market is ass and my mindset is even worse - touching grass but checking twitter and charts periodically is honestly just as bad for me as it was scanning coins and trading charts daily props to you if you're slogging away at it rn
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Optimistic Mode
Optimistic Mode@Pooorad·
why did AlphaTON acquire GAMEE at a 175% premium and commit 2M in market buys over the next 90 days
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retard mode ✞
retard mode ✞@retardmode·
can’t believe i got vaccinated to go to a fucking macklemore concert
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flock (6'3)
flock (6'3)@flocko·
@passcoderonald every single day it's just some variation of this by the most retarded person you know
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TL
TL@toplonging·
you wouldn’t believe it but if you go outside it’s sunny and beautiful out
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KreiaCapital
KreiaCapital@BeaverTime69·
Closed SPY 584 3/31 Puts and UVIX 4.00 4/2 Calls today for close to 100% on both, still giga bearish indicies and bullish vol and will likely add back more exposure in those areas, but I also want to open up 2nd level exposure to the ME conflict (wheat, food, etc.)
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KreiaCapital
KreiaCapital@BeaverTime69·
@lesabrefomo @thokani It's probably a much, much chopper journey though and not worth the mental bandwidth compared to easier shorts
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KreiaCapital
KreiaCapital@BeaverTime69·
@lesabrefomo @thokani I'd agree with that, there are definitely at least a few alts that are "close at zero" type shorts, and shorting HYPE is something I have zero feel for, but if I had tonchose between shorting BTC or HYPE here with a "close at the cycle bottom" target I'd pick hype
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jw46
jw46@jw46629721·
@0xbigmikey Maybe touch some grass with Mel? He seriously needs some help rn
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mikey
mikey@0xbigmikey·
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KreiaCapital
KreiaCapital@BeaverTime69·
@thokani @lesabrefomo It's been the "flee to safety" asset ever since 10/10 /bear market started, if everything keeps going down (as they do in bears), eventually even the flight to safety asset gets fled...and when it does it is vicious
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Thokani 🕊️
Thokani 🕊️@thokani·
yeah thats the reason im short btc is down 50% and hype has been going on a very good streak outpeforming everything because of metals first then oil and now the sp500 pretty much tapped every tradfi angle possible and now it just seems like nothing bigger will come off 2x off floor i just dont see a reason for it to continue going eventually the btc fatigue will effect hype
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10Δ
10Δ@_10delta_·
Trump is getting a lot of valuable intel on who is truly on his side both on the global & domestic level. As Machiavelli said, adversity is the only reliable test of allegiance, because in peacetime every prince has abundant allies. Trump may not have started this war for this purpose, but 3 weeks in, every player's hand is now face-up on the table. Expect retribution after this.
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