Sol Ehrlich

Early users build the value. Why do only founders & VCs own it? Experimenting with giving 10% of LunarLog to the people who show up first. Thoughts? solehrlich.substack.com/p/early-users-…

@joewrote Private property without taxation is theft. Landowners don’t create land value, society does. Keeping it all is just legalized freeloading

You think property taxes are *the height* of class warfare? Good luck with that. "All you had to do was pay us enough to live."

@TheShortBear @NautilusCap The seasonal pattern seems correct, but if this is indexed to 100, wouldn’t that imply that the market doubles every 4 years on average? That’s not historically true at 10%

Here’s where we are. Let’s see if they pull it now that CTAs are back involved. People are very much trained to buy the dip for a V-Bottom ever since liberation day. This would mean 5.5 months of pain. I’d expect the GDP numbers to be a driving force for this should it happen. We would expand the bubble with a mega rip into year 2027.

@chomsky_quotes They'd lose their minds over something like this: open.substack.com/pub/solehrlich…

Quick Reminder: Bernie Sanders is not left-wing as per the fever dreams of the WSJ. I wonder how the WSJ Opinion writers would react to actual socialist ideas of worker control over the means of production, democratic control of communities and so on. 🙄

@scottsantens From David Graeber’s Bullshit Jobs @Graeber_social

This FT opinion was practically designed in a lab to be maximum elitist. JFC. It reads like an Onion piece. Apparently, we have too much leisure and too little stress in our lives, and it's leading to populism. One solution is to have more kids to have more stress. Wild stuff. archive.ph/2ZlZc

@joewrote These people are plants

It's also so funny how Sawant and other "revolutionary" socialists constantly attack DSA as reformists, then run on raising corporate taxes and raising the minimum wage - which they get real mad at DSA for doing.

> Endlessly lies about DSA > Flies across the country to rally against DSA elected politicians > Begs for our help

I'm really glad people like yourself put out genuine educational content. It blows my mind that people still fall for this guru shtick, especially when background and profits are so easily verifiable. All it takes is a brokerage report

Piggybacking on my previous post, The Economist now feels compelled to weigh in on BTC. Their track record as traders is horrendous, even if they might be right about everything in their analysis h/t @donnelly_brent youtube.com/shorts/szdV3nT…

@Citrini7 I'm assuming that bonds rallied into D-Day because the markets anticipated an Allied victory (thus lower wartime spending), and dropped into the Civil War because of uncertainty over Union survival (implying more spending + higher default/inflation risk)?

I originally published this financial history article in January 2023, but its core point about how markets have a habit of treating geopolitical risk as background noise right up until the moment it’s not seems relevant again. citriniresearch.com/p/signals-nois…

@chomsky_quotes I really liked what Peter Beinart had to say on this: peterbeinart.substack.com/p/america-iran…

Source: chomsky.info/20200107/ (2020)

@chomsky_quotes Ah, ya got me there!

@SolEhrlich He did say something about the Federal Reserve and bond traders :)

By about 1996-97, Clinton said this pretty explicitly to his friend Russian President Boris Yeltsin, whom he had helped win the 1996 election. He told Yeltsin: Don’t push too hard on this NATO business. We’re going to expand but I need it because of the ethnic vote in the US.

I think we have a very good setup here in both BTC and NQ. BTC couldn't go down on the news this weekend, along with several popular news accounts calling for it to go to zero. Specs are mostly short as we enter a seasonally positive period for risk assets. Stop below 62k. NQ stop below Feb 6 low

@chomsky_quotes I learned a couple weeks ago that Bill Clinton called John Rawls "the most important philosopher of the 20th century." I can't reconcile believing that and somehow governing as he did

My comment: Incredible that the imbecilic Bill Clinton expanded NATO (with the far reaching consequences we see today) "because of the ethnic vote in the US."

@mayukh_panja Doesn't physics also rely on assumptions like ideal gases and frictionless planes? I feel like the criticism should be if the assumptions generate useful explanations. They didn't in the classical model, but I think it's progressed after they've relaxed criteria for rationality

Economics is mostly a bullshit field of study. It is specifically for people who can do a little bit of stats and calc and want to feel smart but too dumb to study physics or math. Most economic theories are built like this: they start with an assumption about human behavior. Then without checking if the assumption is true, they will pile on layers of sloppy math on it and come to all sorts of conclusions that obviously don’t hold up in the real world. Recently a couple of economists won the Nobel Prize for being the first to realize that assumptions about human behavior must be tested and they went out and did some field work, and proved that a lot of assumptions in economic theories about how humans behave with money are well just not true. I was working at a bank for 2 years and saw firsthand that economics PhDs tend to be the dumbest. These people are completely alien to the idea of first principles thinking and treat axioms as if they were written in the Bible. Also they don’t really understand what an axiom is. Economics only exists because your average normie is easily impressed buy math and midwits in power are not scientific enough to realize that it is all voodoo and keep taking economists seriously. I don’t blame them though, at some point they hit an intelligence wall and the average economist brain is simply not equipped to have meta level thoughts about their own field of study. I guess this is one of those bullshit jobs like HR, therapy, astrology, project management that will just stay around for a while cause most humans are either mid or retarded.

Back from Europe, so did not update. Was stopped out on the below BTC trade. Currently flat, as I don't like the PA of the equity indexes. Bought the dip in Gold, but this was purely a mean reversion/bounce off 50 D play. Looking for other opportunities

@MikeBellafiore Because every decision is recorded, every outcome is yours, and the feedback is immediate. There’s nowhere to hide from your habits

You will learn more about yourself in one year of trading, than anything else you do. #Facts

@gfc4 This is where traders and value investors part ways

Reminiscences of a Stock Operator quote of the day: In a bull market the trend of prices, of course, is decidedly and definitely upward. Therefore whenever a stock goes against the general trend you are justified in assuming that there is something wrong with that particular stock.