Eduard Soler Lecha

🧵📊¿Qué piensan los españoles sobre la política internacional, la seguridad y la defensa? ¿Está Sánchez alineado con la población española?

🎥 #Vidéo | Dans la banlieue sud de Beyrouth, encore marquée par des frappes israéliennes, le violoncelliste libanais Mehdi el Sahili se filme en train de jouer son instrument. Une séquence tournée à l’aube, dans une zone encore sous menace, où le musicien interprète brièvement des morceaux de Dvořák et de Khatchatourian avant de quitter les lieux. Les images ⤵️

Prioritizing foreign alliances over regional unity doesn’t create security, it fuels instability for everyone involved. Strong and resilient regions are built from within, not outsourced.

El avance del Barómetro del @CIS_Institucion complmenta lo que veíamos en el 🧵 La opinión pública se alinea mayoritariamente con la posición gubernamental. Cohesión entre sus bases. División en la oposición. Votantes de VOX desacomplejadamente trumpistas cis.es/es/w/avance-de…

Espero que esta recopilación sea útil. Si tenéis más datos o queréis analizar los que he recogido, será un placer leeros. Y si van saliendo más cosas me comprometo a irlas recogiendo.

🧵📊¿Qué piensan los españoles sobre la política internacional, la seguridad y la defensa? ¿Está Sánchez alineado con la población española?

On @France24_en, I discuss Spain’s attempt to apply the same principles to Ukraine, Gaza and Iran: defending international law. Why so vocal? Public opinion and domestic politics matter, but so do leadership, multilateralism and historical memory. youtube.com/watch?v=D7uZH7…

Of all the crazy ideas out there, this may be the worst. Glad that Damascus is wise enough, for now, not to get on board this plan.

Això és la setmana vinent. A saber què pot passar fins llavors però segur que tindrem moltes coses per analitzar. T'hi apuntes?

Is Larijani dead? What is the significance? 🔹If reports that Israel has killed Ali Larijani are confirmed, this would represent a significant loss for the Islamic Republic. Larijani was a true insider of the Islamic Republic who spent decades at the center of power and who understood how the system actually works. Figures with that level of experience and institutional background are relatively rare in Iran’s current political elite. 🔹One important aspect of his role was that he helped manage the political and strategic dimension of the ongoing war. In other words, beyond the military campaign itself, someone still has to shape the messaging, signal intentions, and communicate with external parties. Larijani was a figure capable of doing that while remaining fully trusted by the system. 🔹His death would therefore not cripple Iran’s decision-making structure, as the system is designed to absorb such losses. But it would remove one of the people who helped connect the political, diplomatic, and security sides of strategy. In wartime, that kind of coordination is particularly valuable. 🔹There is also a broader elite dimension. Larijani was one of the few figures who could navigate between different currents inside the system. Losing him could gradually narrow the circle of experienced political managers and shift influence further toward more military-oriented actors. 🔹In terms of the war itself, the immediate impact would likely be limited operationally. But politically it could harden attitudes inside Tehran and reinforce the narrative that the war is an existential struggle aimed at eliminating the entire leadership of the Islamic Republic. 🔹At the same time, Larijani was also among the type of insiders who could play a role in any future political settlement. Losing figures like him can make it more difficult to eventually manage negotiations or shape the political exit from the war. 🔹Overall, Larijani belonged to a very small group of insiders who knew how to manage both the war and the politics around it. Losing people like that makes the system more rigid, more security-driven, and ultimately less flexible in how it fights – or how it eventually ends – the war.

Trump and Netanyahu launch the war on Iran. The Gulf and the world are asked to secure the Strait of Hormuz. Wars may be decided by a few- but their consequences are carried by many.

España es uno de los principales contribuyentes de personal a la misión de la FINUL en Líbano. A medida que la guerra se extiende al país, sorprende lo poco que se habla de este tema.

Three major misunderstandings are distorting the Iran War These three represent lingering hopes for a quick victory But hoping Iran will bail us out is not a strategy This war is entering a long strategic game—and we need to see how it actually works

Obviously, the most worrying development is the growing number of civilian victims and displaced people. But the situation of UN peacekeepers is also something to keep an eye on, as incidents could have wider international repercussions.

A few hours ago, UNIFIL also issued a statement saying its peacekeepers were fired upon three times during patrols in southern Lebanon, likely by non-state armed groups. Two patrols returned fire in self-defence. No injuries reported. unifil.unmissions.org/en/press-relea…

UNIFIL will be under pressure as the war spreads into Lebanon. 48 troop and staff-contributing countries deployed to monitor the cessation of hostilities and support humanitarian access. What happens when the mission finds itself in the middle of war? And if an incident occurs?

Jens Stoltenberg is refreshingly clear on the fact that the 🇺🇸🇮🇱 war is against international law. And says that NATO should stay out of any involvement in it.

President Donald Trump is escalating the Iran war in the belief that greater force will produce victory History suggests the opposite When the stronger state that started a war keeps climbing the escalation ladder, it often falls into what I call the Escalation Trap That is the path this war may now be taking

A very comprehensive analysis of reactions and implications of the Iran War worldwide by @CrisisGroup. Worth reading!

¿Conseguirá la guerra en Irán que la descarbonización de la economía europea se perciba menos como un proyecto ideológico y más como una necesidad estratégica? El Green Deal retrocedió cuando se convirtió en una batalla ideológica y cultural. Toca cambiar de rumbo.

Mark Twain warned: “America cannot have an empire abroad and a republic at home.” Fulbright added: “The price of empire is America’s soul.” When media are attacked for questioning war, those warnings feel prophetic. The danger is not only overseas but erosion of democracy at home