@TXMCtrades I remember people clowning this dude for calling for S&P to go to 6,000+ in 2022…. Who is laughing now.
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Sound Money Dave
811 posts
Sound Money Dave
@SoundMoneyDave
Bitcoiner | Sound Money | Gold | Austrian Economics | #Bitcoin Bull | Macro | Quality. So bearish, I’m bullish. Lift weights, own sound money. Steady lads.
Katılım Mayıs 2021
250 Takip Edilen70 Takipçiler
My math specialist
Jeremy Szafron@JeremySzafron
I just asked @DaveHcontrarian about the other side of the next global bust, and he laid out a macro equation the financial system simply cannot solve. He projects central banks will be forced to print upwards of $50 trillion to save the system, driving inflation to 25% and pushing interest rates into the high teens. But with global debt swelling to $450 trillion, the math completely breaks down. As he told me: "We can't service our debt at 5%. I don't know how we're gonna service it at 15 or 20%." Watch the full breakdown @KitcoNewsNOW
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While what Ray says is true, it evokes some questions.
Is gold a safe heaven asset if it too got sold in a crisis?
What is a safe heaven asset, if everything besides dollars gets sold in a crisis?
Is Gold or BTC ultimately the harder money?
Ray Dalio@RayDalio
While Bitcoin gets a lot of attention, it hasn’t played the safe-haven role many expected. In my view, there are a few reasons why. First, Bitcoin lacks privacy. Transactions can be monitored and potentially controlled, which is why central banks aren’t looking to hold it. Second, it also has a high correlation with tech stocks. When investors get squeezed in other areas of their portfolio, they sell their Bitcoin to cover it. Third, it’s a relatively small and controllable market, whereas gold stands alone. There is only one gold. Ultimately, gold is more widely held, deeply established, and still plays a central role in the global system.
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@Cointelegraph @LynAldenContact paid newsletter sub here. Any chance you can talk thru this in an upcoming letter?
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Really hard to be bearish when $STRC raised over $2.5 billion in the last 5 weeks, which is >1/3rd of what it raised since inception a year ago
If this signals trend, and starts the flywheel on btc, which enforces the $STRC flywheel, we will rip a hole in the matrix
Suddenly everyone realizes they own too little and the hedging complex will have to capitulate into Saylor’s hands
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BREAKING: 🇮🇷 Iran is accepting bitcoin for transit toll payments — Financial Times
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The lack of critical thinking, second, and third order derivatives that weren’t considered here and haven’t been considered for the past 25 years by our leaders is astounding 👇
Shanaka Anslem Perera ⚡@shanaka86
BREAKING: An Iranian ballistic missile guided by Chinese BeiDou satellites, fuelled by Chinese sodium perchlorate, precisely navigated by Chinese gyroscopic sensors, and fabricated on production lines equipped with Chinese SMIC tools just struck the Neot Hovav industrial zone south of Beersheba. Israel’s largest chemical and hazardous waste complex. Nineteen plants. Adama. Teva Pharmaceutical. Israel Chemicals. A warehouse is burning. Route 40 closed. No injuries. No hazmat release. Fire contained. Four countries built that missile. One country appears at every layer of the supply chain. The same country that processes 85 to 90 percent of the rare earth magnets inside the Arrow interceptor that was fired to stop it. The missile cost Iran between $200,000 and $500,000. The Arrow 3 interceptor that attempted to stop it cost $2 to $4 million. If THAAD was fired, $13 to $15 million. If a Gulf state Patriot battery engaged a Shahed in the same wave, $4 million to stop a $20,000 drone. The cost ratio runs 5 to 1 at the lowest. 200 to 1 at the highest. The defender pays more to stop the weapon than the attacker pays to build it. Every single time. BeiDou is the variable that makes this ratio lethal. Before Chinese satellite integration, Iranian ballistic missiles relied on pure inertial navigation with a circular error probable of 500 to 1,000 metres. With BeiDou-3 hybrid guidance, the CEP drops to 50 to 200 metres. The missile that hit Neot Hovav did not land in the desert. It landed in a 19-plant chemical complex. BeiDou did not make the missile more expensive. It made the same cheap missile accurate enough to force the defender to fire the expensive interceptor every time. The cost of the offence stayed flat. The cost of the defence compounded. The Pentagon burned $5.6 billion in munitions in 48 hours. Israel has fired hundreds of Arrows since February 28, exceeding $1 billion in interception costs. The US requests $200 billion in supplemental funding. Iran’s total offensive expenditure: an estimated $200 million. $200 billion to stop $200 million. A 1,000 to 1 ratio at the strategic level. China is on both sides of the ledger. Chinese BeiDou makes the Iranian missile accurate enough to force interception. Chinese rare earth magnets make the interceptor that fires to stop it. Chinese SMIC tools build the production lines that fabricate the guidance chips. Chinese sodium perchlorate fuels the propellant. Every missile that forces an interception depletes an Arrow that contains Chinese rare earth magnets that are under export restrictions that China controls. The attacker’s supply chain and the defender’s supply chain route through the same country. The country profits from both the missile and the interceptor. The country that makes the offence possible also makes the defence expensive. This is not a war between Iran and Israel. This is a cost function. The cost function has one variable on the offence side: China. And one variable on the defence side: also China. The rare earth magnets in the Arrow motor. The BeiDou signal in the Emad guidance. Both made in the same country. Both consumed in the same exchange. One depleting the other. The war is a Chinese supply chain consuming itself at a ratio that bankrupts the defender before it exhausts the attacker. Neot Hovav is contained. No injuries. No hazmat. And none of that matters. The interceptor was fired. The stockpile shrank. The rare earth magnet was consumed. Tomorrow another BeiDou-guided missile will force another Arrow containing another Chinese magnet to fire at another ratio the defender cannot sustain. The IDF Chief said “collapse.” The interceptor stockpile says the same in a different currency. Both currencies route through Beijing. Full analysis: open.substack.com/pub/shanakaans…
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Sound Money Dave@SoundMoneyDave
@TXMCtrades In a time of war, what do you sell? You sell it all. Gold is a reserve asset. Maslow’s hierarchy of needs. Food, energy, and personal safety first. Of course you’d sell gold. Gold is not immune and ultimately suffers the same fate as treasuries here. Careful who you listen to.
HT
@TXMCtrades In a time of war, what do you sell? You sell it all. Gold is a reserve asset.
Maslow’s hierarchy of needs. Food, energy, and personal safety first. Of course you’d sell gold. Gold is not immune and ultimately suffers the same fate as treasuries here. Careful who you listen to.
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The most likely explanation is that the people getting squeezed out of positions by the conflict own more gold than bitcoin.
And because Bitcoin is half a year into a bear market.
Please stop lol
Frank Chaparro@fintechfrank
Last five days: Gold: -12% Bitcoin: -4%
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- End of long term debt cycle
- End of Pax Americana
- Balkanization of global trade
- Death of social contract
- Death of American Dream and the realization of it
- Fourth Turning
Ramp Capital@RampCapitalLLC
The fuck is going on here
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Well said. The lack of critical thinking here by DC and Military Planners is astoundingly poor. How was this not thought through?
Michael A. Arouet@MichaelAArouet
It’s not Iran. It’s Russia guiding Iran’s attacks against crucial oil and gas infrastructure. Russia needs oil and gas prices to stay high and sanctions to be lifted to avoid the collapse of its economy in year five of its three-days Special Military Operation. Great job Donald.
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(Insert another Luke banger here)
CEO Technician@CEOTechnician
Luke Gromen Debut On Goldfinger Capital: Iran & AI Only Accelerate The US Debt Death Spiral youtu.be/Pqbp_FuPmIs?si… It is a pleasure to have Luke Gromen on Goldfinger Capital for the first time. I thoroughly enjoyed this conversation, Luke has been one of my favorite macro-market commentators over the last few years and in a sense I got to meet one of my heroes for the first time. Luke Gromen is a U.S. macroeconomic analyst and the founder of Forest for the Trees (FFTT), a macro research firm that focuses on global monetary systems, sovereign debt dynamics, and the geopolitical role of commodities—especially gold and energy. Gromen is best known for his thesis that the U.S. fiscal position and persistent current-account deficits will eventually force changes to the global dollar system, potentially leading to a greater role for gold or commodity-linked settlement mechanisms in international trade. You can find him on X @LukeGromen $GDX $GDXJ $GLD $QQQ $SLV $SPY $USO $XLE
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Possible mechanism of flows. Market sells off due to risk off, people go to cash and instead of T Bills or MMF park some in STRC as a cash equivalent yielding 10%. This creates reflexivity and creates a marginal bid for BTC during risk off. Something to watch.
Joe Consorti@JoeConsorti
Strategy has purchased an estimated 10,098 BTC so far this week through STRC proceeds. An estimated 2,835 BTC have been purchased today alone. For context, only ~3,150 BTC are issued every week. And it's only Thursday.
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@StealthQE4 How do you pay down the deficit when 100+% of tax receipts is congressional mandated spending. Defense + Social security + VA benefits + interest is >100%. Doing so would require a political popular willing to tolerate pain. Do we have that in the US right now?
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My version of America First:
Pay down the deficit or at least make it revenue neutral.
Increase taxes on all. +VAT? 1% tax?
Slash government spending
No more wars
Scale in entitlement cuts on SS based on age. Medicare too.
It all sucks but it has to be done.
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@sentdefender @LukeGromen just what we needed to fix this…. A task force.
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Arab States in the Persian Gulf are running dangerously low on interceptors to take down Iranian-fired ballistic and cruise missiles, as governments in the region have ask the United States to expedite new supplies, with them being told that officials in Washington are creating a task force to do so - but it isn't happening as fast as needed, two regional officials told CBS News.
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@TXMCtrades I mean, it’s just Gresham’s Law. Don’t really understand what so controversial or hard to comprehend here.
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The eternal paradox:
people allege that it is money
but no one wants to spend it
perhaps... it is a problem of the incentives of a rigidly finite thing, especially when fiat already exists and is wildly effective as a medium of exchange.
I've made these points for a long time
calle@callebtc
the state of bitcoiners 2026: > "bItcCoiN iS mOneY" > never uses bitcoin as money
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Sound Money Dave retweetledi
The question is NOT "Will AI take all the white-collar jobs or not?" (It won't.)
The questions are:
1. "How many white-collar jobs does AI have to take to trigger a consumer credit, & then government receipt & global sovereign debt crisis?"
2. "How fast will that happen?"
*Walter Bloomberg@DeItaone
S&P 500 BANKS INDEX FALLS 3.6%
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Quick question:
If AI takes most jobs away how are companies going to make earnings when all the consumers are unemployed and tapped out?
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Can’t believe this needs to be said, but…
Sound Money Dave@SoundMoneyDave
@TXMCtrades Markets are complex. Multiple things can be true. The data is supportive of the 10 am slam (a 1.9% delta). Massive dumping of spot BTC by OGs, broader risk off by markets, and Jane Street playing paper BTC games w/ derivatives can all be true.
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