Adam Sherman 🔸

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Adam Sherman 🔸

Adam Sherman 🔸

@Squee451

Full-time prediction market trader. Dad.

Internet Katılım Aralık 2009
2.3K Takip Edilen2.8K Takipçiler
Adam Sherman 🔸
Adam Sherman 🔸@Squee451·
@Merridew__ To price this Elon Musk car company, I will look at how other car companies are priced I said..... Wow it looks like it's going to be pretty grim for Tesla I said.
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Adam Sherman 🔸
Adam Sherman 🔸@Squee451·
@probaaron That is the house! That's the definition of house. The exchange is the house. The casino where you play poker is the house. We are not the house is crazy if they claimed it.
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Adam Sherman 🔸
Adam Sherman 🔸@Squee451·
@AndyMasley As someone who is not fond of Elon musk the person my Tesla correctly braked and swerved away from a door opening into the path of my car from a parked car today, so I maintain you need 30k to max out until FSD is cheaper.
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Adam Sherman 🔸
Adam Sherman 🔸@Squee451·
@alch3my101 @Foster I think the very first clarification, if time period is specified, which it is for first and second half, not for the full game. Here it says other points don't count unless explicitly marked as cumulative.
Adam Sherman 🔸 tweet media
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Solstice
Solstice@alch3my101·
@Squee451 @Foster I agree with the theory not maybe not the situation. I didn't bet on this so I'll take a step back. Just trying to understand the situation and my referene point is mentions. Tell me, what it in the contract made it clear that OT didn't count for the 2H?
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Foster
Foster@Foster·
This one got me too, a full reading of the rules seems very solid that 2H includes overtime per contract and NBA's official rules. Market obviously was confusing to people so it sucks to see losses but really feel like the that should be asking for a refund shouldn't be the ones that read the contract vs the market maker who didn't and got paid out fully😢
mr.nick@Mr_Nick13

Pretty frustrated with @KalshiSports handling of a contract issue on last nights 2H NBA Cavs vs Knicks game. This is a specific discussion over @Kalshi 's contract and rule variable language differences among props, leading traders to believe they are trading different outcomes.

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Adam Sherman 🔸
Adam Sherman 🔸@Squee451·
@alch3my101 @Foster Pricing can be a dubious signal if it does not involve precedent. How comfortable do you feel about billions counting for billion now in mention markets? There had been two exact situations before this one with resolutions easily checkable, this + pricing is not dubious.
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Solstice
Solstice@alch3my101·
@Squee451 @Foster Pricing is a dubious signal. Mass hysteria and distortion happen all the time
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Adam Sherman 🔸 retweetledi
Zub
Zub@ZubbyBadger·
In the most impressive feat of predicting ever, the traders on @Kalshi successfully predicted with a high degree of certainty who would win survivor before a single episode aired!! They also flawlessly predicted who would get voted out each week (except for 2 weeks where they were wrong at first, but right eventually before the episode aired) and were able to forecast what Jeff would say in each episode! Give it up for your Kalshi traders!!!
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Adam Sherman 🔸
Adam Sherman 🔸@Squee451·
@Foster anyways I'm open to the idea you can read it your way, but many of the rules seem to argue directly against each other and we can agree that's bad. No point in more back and forth probably. GL GL.
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Adam Sherman 🔸
Adam Sherman 🔸@Squee451·
@Foster The point is spread and total points are not specified. You are arguing the clarification shouldn't matter cause "the nba and contract both imply overtime is and and should be considered part of the 2nd half", but you can directly read in the clarification it does not count.
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Foster
Foster@Foster·
I don't think that has anything to do with this to be honest, I think you are misinterpreting that statement or I am confused what point you are trying to get across. That's just explaining how to calculate spread and specifying it uses points in the time period only and not the spread at that point in the game. IE, a q2 spread is the spread in points scored only in q2, not the spread at the end of q2. And if both teams scored 5 points in a time period, it's a tied period which can happen regardless if Kalshi decides to include overtime in a period or not
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Adam Sherman 🔸
Adam Sherman 🔸@Squee451·
@Foster also think this bottom clarification is meant to imply they specified time period and points scored outside like overtime don't count, but get why the earlier rules read would make that seem not necessarily true.
Adam Sherman 🔸 tweet media
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Adam Sherman 🔸
Adam Sherman 🔸@Squee451·
@Foster This is like arguing it was a suit in polymarket, fine if you are right, but clearly it wasn't going to be a suit the second time if they ruled it wasn't already.
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Adam Sherman 🔸
Adam Sherman 🔸@Squee451·
@Foster I would bet if they knew two exactly similar markets had resolved the opposite way including one the day before it would be trading where it traded?
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Adam Sherman 🔸
Adam Sherman 🔸@Squee451·
@Foster What do you mean most traders? Most traders priced it at 0, very few traders priced it at above 0, you can look at volume over time and what traded. The people complaining on twitter all read it your way for sure, but the price didn't flip to 99c and stay there.
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Foster
Foster@Foster·
The 2h markets came about like a month ago, looks like its happened 3 times maybe? Just cause the incorrectly resolved a market previously doesn't mean they should continue going forward when the issue is presented to them. The markets were previously pretty damn small and the 2h moneyline was the only one with action and had proper rules. Its probably why the rule variables all are now "2nd Half (excluding overtime)" I don't see the need to continue to discuss it if your takeaway from "Overtime points are included unless explicitly excluded." means to you the exact opposite meaning from what most traders take away from it. Especially with source agency rules also saying OT = 2nd half
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Adam Sherman 🔸
Adam Sherman 🔸@Squee451·
@Foster I'm glad they are clearly specifying it now. Does seem dumb to me that they had people like you and me read the rules and come to opposite conclusions.
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Adam Sherman 🔸
Adam Sherman 🔸@Squee451·
@Foster Because this exact argument happened in that category of sports and they didn't fix it, despite all the precedent of them not counting second half in NBA ever.
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