Adam Sherman 🔸

The other thing is that it seems like some atheists are afraid to say what I’m saying plainly because so many powerful people are religious. Also scary.

@paularambles If I'm being sinsear, it doesn't meat a lot of people's standards.

why do people have so much beef with this

@MartinShkreli @typesfast urologytimes.com/view/fda-grant…

@typesfast hasnt changed in 30 years afaik

Anybody working on this ?

@Merridew__ To price this Elon Musk car company, I will look at how other car companies are priced I said..... Wow it looks like it's going to be pretty grim for Tesla I said.

@probaaron That is the house! That's the definition of house. The exchange is the house. The casino where you play poker is the house. We are not the house is crazy if they claimed it.

BREAKING: exchange makes money when people trade on exchange “Kalshi wins when you lose” yeah, and when you win too x.com/FairPredicts/s…

@AndyMasley As someone who is not fond of Elon musk the person my Tesla correctly braked and swerved away from a door opening into the path of my car from a parked car today, so I maintain you need 30k to max out until FSD is cheaper.

I spent $13k on my car and I do not understand how anyone could want anything better beyond it being a purely positional good

@alch3my101 @Foster I think the very first clarification, if time period is specified, which it is for first and second half, not for the full game. Here it says other points don't count unless explicitly marked as cumulative.

@Squee451 @Foster I agree with the theory not maybe not the situation. I didn't bet on this so I'll take a step back. Just trying to understand the situation and my referene point is mentions. Tell me, what it in the contract made it clear that OT didn't count for the 2H?

This one got me too, a full reading of the rules seems very solid that 2H includes overtime per contract and NBA's official rules. Market obviously was confusing to people so it sucks to see losses but really feel like the that should be asking for a refund shouldn't be the ones that read the contract vs the market maker who didn't and got paid out fully😢

@alch3my101 @Foster Pricing can be a dubious signal if it does not involve precedent. How comfortable do you feel about billions counting for billion now in mention markets? There had been two exact situations before this one with resolutions easily checkable, this + pricing is not dubious.

@Squee451 @Foster Pricing is a dubious signal. Mass hysteria and distortion happen all the time

In the most impressive feat of predicting ever, the traders on @Kalshi successfully predicted with a high degree of certainty who would win survivor before a single episode aired!! They also flawlessly predicted who would get voted out each week (except for 2 weeks where they were wrong at first, but right eventually before the episode aired) and were able to forecast what Jeff would say in each episode! Give it up for your Kalshi traders!!!

@Foster anyways I'm open to the idea you can read it your way, but many of the rules seem to argue directly against each other and we can agree that's bad. No point in more back and forth probably. GL GL.

@Foster The point is spread and total points are not specified. You are arguing the clarification shouldn't matter cause "the nba and contract both imply overtime is and and should be considered part of the 2nd half", but you can directly read in the clarification it does not count.

@Foster chatgpt.com/share/6a0e5f05… forgot I had this discussion a week ago with ChatGPT!

I don't think that has anything to do with this to be honest, I think you are misinterpreting that statement or I am confused what point you are trying to get across. That's just explaining how to calculate spread and specifying it uses points in the time period only and not the spread at that point in the game. IE, a q2 spread is the spread in points scored only in q2, not the spread at the end of q2. And if both teams scored 5 points in a time period, it's a tied period which can happen regardless if Kalshi decides to include overtime in a period or not

@Foster Horribly written contract either way!

@Foster also think this bottom clarification is meant to imply they specified time period and points scored outside like overtime don't count, but get why the earlier rules read would make that seem not necessarily true.

@Foster This is like arguing it was a suit in polymarket, fine if you are right, but clearly it wasn't going to be a suit the second time if they ruled it wasn't already.

@Foster I would bet if they knew two exactly similar markets had resolved the opposite way including one the day before it would be trading where it traded?

@Foster What do you mean most traders? Most traders priced it at 0, very few traders priced it at above 0, you can look at volume over time and what traded. The people complaining on twitter all read it your way for sure, but the price didn't flip to 99c and stay there.

The 2h markets came about like a month ago, looks like its happened 3 times maybe? Just cause the incorrectly resolved a market previously doesn't mean they should continue going forward when the issue is presented to them. The markets were previously pretty damn small and the 2h moneyline was the only one with action and had proper rules. Its probably why the rule variables all are now "2nd Half (excluding overtime)" I don't see the need to continue to discuss it if your takeaway from "Overtime points are included unless explicitly excluded." means to you the exact opposite meaning from what most traders take away from it. Especially with source agency rules also saying OT = 2nd half

@Foster I'm glad they are clearly specifying it now. Does seem dumb to me that they had people like you and me read the rules and come to opposite conclusions.

@Foster Because this exact argument happened in that category of sports and they didn't fix it, despite all the precedent of them not counting second half in NBA ever.