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"We should never underestimate human stupidity....it's one of the most powerful forces in the world." Yuval Harari, professor at The Hebrew University of Jerusalem
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Stanislav Panis
12.7K posts
Stanislav Panis
@StanislavPanis
analyst @ J&T Banka
Bratislava, Slovakia Katılım Haziran 2013
1.2K Takip Edilen1.8K Takipçiler
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JH@CRUDEOIL231
We are witnessing a sharp rebound in the Yen, likely triggered by BOJ intervention, occurring simultaneously with a drop in oil prices—even in the absence of any specific bearish headlines. Of course this is partly linked to several pods initiating their exit strategies ahead of the Brent June contract expiry. However it is more plausible to approach this from the perspective of position unwinding and risk management mechanisms by macro funds and CTAs, rather than a shift in oil fundamentals. In a vacuum, a drop in USD/JPY typically exerts upward pressure on dollar-denominated oil prices. But when a liquidity shock—like the unwinding of the Yen carry trade—hits, this textbook inverse correlation between the dollar and commodities temporarily breaks down. The technical supply factor—forced liquidation by financial institutions—completely overwhelms any supply-demand or geopolitical fundamentals. One might ask, "Doesn't the Yen carry trade usually flow into US assets? The capital flow into oil isn't that significant, is it?" It’s true that pure Yen to Oil carry trades aren't the primary driver, as oil doesn't provide a fixed yield like bonds or dividend stocks. Furthermore it’s impossible to isolate the exact amount of Yen carry capital in the oil market, as COT reports only track position direction, not the funding currency. However once the Yen sees a short squeeze style rally, the real value of Yen-denominated debt spikes, leading to massive mark-to-market losses and margin calls. To meet these margin calls and keep their funds afloat, traders must sell whatever they can liquidate immediately. Selling illiquid OTC assets or assets with thin order books would result in massive slippage—and New York isn't even open yet. Consequently the oil futures market—one of the most liquid markets in the world—is treated like a global ATM, taking the brunt of mechanical sell-offs as funds scramble for cash. The commodity desks within these macro funds may have built large long positions based purely on the attractive roll yields from backwardation. But the backend funding that supports the entire fund's leverage included Yen short positions. When the Yen surged due to BOJ intervention, the VaR limits at the total fund level were breached. Desperate for USD liquidity, fund managers are hitting the bid on their most liquid and (thanks to backwardation) most profitable positions—oil—to crystallize gains and raise cash. Hedge funds typically operate with 4x-10x leverage. Since some of this massive liquidity is tied up as margin for commodity funds, the volume of oil being dumped during forced liquidations is powerful enough to completely bypass physical supply-demand fundamentals. Ultimately this must be viewed through the lens of pooled book management. As a macro Yen carry tantrum erupts, oil is being sacrificed as a victim of mechanical liquidity hunting, regardless of its own merits or market structure. #oott #iran $usdjpy
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Wolfgang Munchau@EuroBriefing
Why has the oil price been so subdued during the crisis? We should not overthink this issue. Traders got fooled by Trump, who kept on insisting that the war would be short, and nobody wanted to bet against the president. Now that this fairy tale is getting harder to believe, markets are starting to adjust. Even in a market as efficient as this one, and contrary to what the efficient market hypothesis would suggest, markets do not take in all the available information. eurointelligence.com
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Iran is unlikely to capitulate. Instead, it will adapt, operationally, economically, and strategically. Tehran has demonstrated a high tolerance for pressure and a capacity to recalibrate under sustained constraints.
At the same time, global economic pressures are likely to intensify. Iran is unlikely to ensure freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz without meaningful sanctions relief. Continued friction in this critical chokepoint would contribute to rising energy prices and broader economic instability.
When it comes to Iran we should remember:
There is no silver bullet.
There are no easy victories.
I hope someone in the room told President Trump the following: "Mr. President, a blockade will not lead to Iranian capitulation. They will not give up their missiles, their nuclear program, their support for proxies, or their control over Hormuz even if the blockade will continue. Period."
#IranWar
Gregory Brew@gbrew24
Trump is going to stick with the blockade. Which is, in effect, a decision to not make a decision. Trump will wait to see if the blockade works. Iran faces economic pressure--albeit the kind the country's leadership have a lot of experience with. Hormuz stay shut. wsj.com/world/middle-e…
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While the US, with its free market, entrepreneurialism and innovation, has kept its share of world GDP, Europe's share has been declining.
It has stabilized recently, but with regulations, overtaxation, and a left mindset throttling innovation & growth how should it continue?
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OpenAI Misses Revenue, User Targets As CFO Fears $1.5 Trillion In Commitments Can't Be Paid zerohedge.com/markets/openai…
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BREAKING: The European Union has now spent an additional $32 billion on fossil fuel imports since the Iran War began.
The IEA is now calling the situation the biggest energy security threat in history.
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Interesting trajectory...
Russian diesel is enjoying high demand.
Giovanni Staunovo🛢@staunovo
Russian diesel cargoes rerouted from Brazil as global prices surge #oott reuters.com/business/energ…
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"No other president has orchestrated this many best and worst days in a dozen administrations going back to President Ronald Reagan in 1981."
@fundstrat via @alexandraandnyc
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Wolfgang Munchau@EuroBriefing
By far the hardest thing for liberal Europeans to accept is the rise of a non-eurocentric world. Europeans can deal with the far-right, or Donald Trump's rants. But they cannot deal with being ignored. For over 3000 years, Europe was at the centre of the political, cultural and economic universe. It still thinks it is. eurointelligence.com
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🎤J&T BANKA je hlavným partnerom Forbes Money Masterminds 2026. Náš analytik @StanislavPanis sa venoval téme verejných financií a ich dopadom na investovanie či úrokové sadzby.
#JTBanka #ForbesMoneyMasterminds #ExpertNaInvesticie
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“The riskiest thing in the world is the widespread belief that there’s no risk.”
— Howard Marks
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"You don’t get rich by diversifying into 50 mediocre assets. You get rich by finding 2 or 3 asymmetric home runs."
— Stanley Druckenmiller
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📊 S&P 500 pokračuje nad 7 000 bodmi po rýchlom odraze. Sentiment sa zlepšil, no vyššie ceny energií a valuácie zvyšujú riziko poklesu. ➡️ Viac v Grafe týždňa od @StanislavPanis:
jtbanka.sk/spravodajstvo/…
#JTBanka #GrafTyzdna
Stanislav Panis retweetledi
German carmakers' business model was based on growing sales in China that subsidized overblown, union-protected structures at home. It’s over now, in most industries, not only in automotive.
And this during good times. Most Germans don’t understand yet what’s coming their way.
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