steamerpro

@brianjenner @stevgiufre @PitcherList @DSzymborski Yep, Steamer accounts for that too.

@stevgiufre @PitcherList I would be amazed if ZiPS and Steamer didn’t account for defense when projecting pitchers @DSzymborski @steamerpro

This is the #1 most overlooked stat when assessing Starting Pitchers. The defense behind them. If you can determine defensive strength in the pre-season, you WILL have a leg up.

@RosenJordanBlum @DSzymborski Thanks for doing the work and congrats on a great rookie year!

The reviews are in: critics are hailing OOPSY as Paul Thomas Anderson's most entertaining film yet. No, wait, that is "One Battle After Another." Good work, @DSzymborski (2025's best hitting projections on FanGraphs) and @steamerpro (2025's best pitching projections on FG)

The latest edition of The Process is now available in electronic form. Paper editions in Amazon will be available later. A lot of important new research this year, along with the SGP and standings history you're used to.

@jimmytoddy What are you seeing? ROS projections might move based on the ballparks remaining for a player but if you're seeing weird stuff please let me know.

Pumped seeing the projections live up at @TheReal_NFC

Terrific work from @RosenJordanBlum. Congrats to @steamerpro Note for ZiPS/PECOTA their "component" based ERA is better than their "official" forecasted-ERA. Check the article. Also note BABIP is almost useless to forecast, leading to overfits prospectslive.com/prospects-live…

@RosenJordanBlum Thanks for doing this analysis!

Reviewing 2023 pitching projections. @steamerpro remains the rizz king, sorry baby gronk. All were grouped closely together. Relieved that my projections (ppERA w/ stuff and w/out stuff) held their own with the Four Horsemen of the Baseball Projections Apocalypse

@srsBryzness Yes, it turned out that the previous run had been with one day left in the season and the Twins final game was at Colorado so their rest-of-season BABIPs were inflated. Should be fixed now. Thanks for alerting me!

@steamerpro Thanks for looking into it. I didn't consider that maybe the numbers get a little wonky right at the end of the season. At least the 2024 projections are right around the corner!

@steamerpro I don't know how active your page is anymore, but the BABIPs for Twins players (both pitchers and hitters) seem absurdly high, and the HR/9 for pitchers is also extremely high.

@srsBryzness Thanks, I'll re-run the code in post-season mode and see if this issue goes away. I think this is a result of projecting rest-of-season when there is no season left.

It seems like you're projecting there to be a much higher offensive environment than what currently exists.

Annual reminder/summary on why @Razzball/@Steamerpro projections should be a key ingredient in your fantasy projections breakfast: 1) It uses our (okay my) playing time estimates which have tested very well - especially pre-March (fantasy.fangraphs.com/summation-of-2…) 2) QS/SV/HLD (cont)

@reach_baseball I think the argument that it should be higher than 155 is that he's averaged 153 over his career when he's been 19-23 yrs old. He'll be 24 and we'd expect more improvement from age 19-23 performance to age 24 performance.

I love Soto and he's CERTAINLY capable of a 172 wRC+, but I'd say his 50th percentile outcome is closer to 155? Similarly, Steamer projecting Vlad Jr's 50th percentile outcome as his 2021 MVP runner-up form feels pretty crazy. He has a career 134 wRC+ and was at 132 last year.

Soto is coming off a 145 wRC+ and has been between 143 and 146 wRC+ in 3 of his 5 seasons. In the other 2, he was at 163 wRC+ (2021) and 202 wRC+ (47 games in 2020). 172 wRC+ as a 50th percentile projection from Steamer feels wild

@DSzymborski @DarrenSechrist I'm going to have to abandon that New Year's resolution of no social media already which is sad.

@steamerpro @DarrenSechrist You've had people panicking! lol

@DSzymborski I know STEAMER and ZIPS often disagree, but has there ever been a wider gap than their projections for Yoshida? ZiPS: .305/.372/.489, 51 BB, 62 K, 2.8 WAR STEAMER: .218/.284/.344. 40 bb, 137 k, -0.6 WAR

@DSzymborski @DarrenSechrist Sorry, I've been (mostly) off Twitter for a while. An official Steamer should show up for him on FG tomorrow. We'll be in the same ballpark: ZiPS: .305/.372/.489, 51 BB, 62 SO Steamer: .298/.388/.479, 66 BB, 56 SO

@DarrenSechrist @steamerpro I talked with Meg and Ben today and we apparently don't have an official Steamer projection yet and it's defaulting to replacementish.

@smada_bb @chadyoung @EightyGrade roster and then free agents getting PA's projected as well so MLB as a whole has way too many PA's.

@smada_bb @chadyoung @EightyGrade Sorry folks, I haven't checked twitter in a few days! These projections are preliminary at this point and particularly the PA projections will move around quite a bit. I think the FG depth charts have each team getting a full season of PA based on players currently on the

2022 saw 2487 stolen bases with the top 20 players accounting for 612 (24.6%) Steamer (currently) projects 3028 SB's for 2023 w/ the top 20 players accounting for 497 (16.4%) For those who see the new rules spreading out SB's rather than favoring the top, Steamer has your back

@smada_bb We’re planning to make adjustments for the shift changes (although I haven’t worked out how to do this yet). I hadn’t thought about adjusting for the pitch clock.

@steamerpro do you have plans on implementing shift changes and/or pitch clock into projections for 2023?

@smada_bb Sorry, yes, I’ll remove

@steamerpro can we get Tyler Skaggs out of your projections?

OH MY GOOOOOOODDDDDDDDDDDDDDDD This is incredible. Congrats to @seandolinar, @megrowler & @dkappelman, this is huge news. Subscribe to FanGraphs!

@Mayne4J @twcunningham @fangraphs Thanks, I’ll fix it

@twcunningham @fangraphs @steamerpro, this remains a problem for some guys. fangraphs.com/projections.as…

@fangraphs I'm looking at Steamer(ROS) and there are a number of prospects (Frelick, Mayo, Ockimey) with projected walk rates that don't look right and it is affecting their Steamer(ROS) projections. Steamer(ROS) projects Frelick with a 40% walk rate which seems optimistic.