Stephen

6.8K posts

Stephen

Stephen

@StephenJBeynon

Linux IT and DevOps engineer with background in storage. EV, clean energy and home automation enthusiast

Bristol, England Katılım Ekim 2020
384 Takip Edilen159 Takipçiler
Stephen
Stephen@StephenJBeynon·
@davidhamiltons1 @latimeralder @jBryan11801725 I would agree Canada is looking more stable than Russia, Qatar or the USA but as far as I am aware Canada does not have any LNG export terminals on the east coast. Importing Canadian gas via the US is more risky with Trump's trade wars. Not sure what you refer to about Ed.
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David Hamilton
David Hamilton@davidhamiltons1·
@StephenJBeynon @latimeralder @jBryan11801725 I follow Canada affairs, having a son there, a geologist. I think the risk is low, certainly not major. Having been woken up by DT, Canada IS now doing something about gas, building up sales to everyone except US. UK isn't doing much though.Maybe its right what they say about Ed
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Latimer Alder
Latimer Alder@latimeralder·
There's going to be some chilly nights this week. I'll be grateful for my Gas Central Heating. As will tens of millions of other Brits But our 'Minister for Energy Security', Ed Miliband, is determined that we shouldn't enjoy the warmth for long. 'No More Gas!' He hates us!
Latimer Alder tweet media
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Stephen
Stephen@StephenJBeynon·
@fergustp @Willard1951 @xiaowang1984 @TheDisproof I don't see how it is possible for a mostly gas fired grid to reach anywhere close to 90% given that the peak grid generation in 2025 was 45.8GW the minimum was 12.9GW (average was 36.7)
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Thomas Ferguson
Thomas Ferguson@fergustp·
@StephenJBeynon @Willard1951 @xiaowang1984 @TheDisproof 40-45% is only realistic due to policies, as you point out the government directly increase the costs due to policies not gas, if competing in a free market that figure would be 90%, in the 90’s we still had cheap coal and more nuclear
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Xiao Wang
Xiao Wang@xiaowang1984·
Negative prices essentially is a signal that says the market at this time is irrelevant because generation that has contracts is such a massive amount in the system. It says nothing about who the holder of those contracts are and if they are actually saving money on average. They could be the public agreeing to pay a wind farm £150 a MWh for example on a legacy FiT.
Craig David@windymillerhi

Don’t see these prices when running on fossil fuel! Role on net zero!

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Stephen
Stephen@StephenJBeynon·
@fergustp @Willard1951 @xiaowang1984 @TheDisproof Further more you took the 93% capacity factor figure where as 40-45% is more realistic for the last decade and the highest ever was around 80% in the late 90s when we still had lots of north sea gas.
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Stephen
Stephen@StephenJBeynon·
@fergustp @Willard1951 @xiaowang1984 @TheDisproof You are seriously comparing the short run marginal price of paid off gas stations that are close to being end of life with the cost of building new renewables. At least compare like for like (the cost of building and running new gas plant with new renewables)
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Stephen
Stephen@StephenJBeynon·
@bulkeley_john @johnkonrad It makes the rather large assumption that mines will always explode if they get near a ship. If I wanted to mine a shipping route I would have a remote control to activate or deactivate them.
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John Bulkeley
John Bulkeley@bulkeley_john·
@johnkonrad x.com/bulkeley_john/… Is this a viable option?
John Bulkeley@bulkeley_john

OK, before you stop laughing, hear me out. The problem as we all know is the Strait of Hormuz, which is said by the IRGC to be closed, even though we have not seen any ships hit by mines (only USVs or areal drones). What if we bring back a Q-ship? Q-ships were ships disguised to look like merchant ships but were in fact heavily armed. What if we organized an escorted convoy to run the Strait, but at its front we put minesweepers and an armed oil tanker that is filled with water but not oil. A large tanker, such as a Very Large Crude Carrier (VLCC), filled with water instead of oil would likely be more resilient to the sinking effects of mine hits, but would still sustain severe damage. Filling a tanker with water turns it into a ballasted, non-buoyant platform. While this means it cannot easily be sunk by flooding (it is already effectively flooded), but multiple mine hits would still cause catastrophic damage, breaking the hull or severing the ship. While a water-filled tanker would not sink due to "loss of cargo displacement," multiple hits (depending on the size and location, particularly if the ship breaks in two) would still render it non-operational or unrepairable, similar to how capital ships in WWII often required 10–20+ torpedo/bomb hits to fully sink. So, this is where the odds come in. A tanker could sustain at least 2 mine hits and still keep going, but multiple mine hits could sink it. It all depends on how heavily mined the Strait really is. Considering that the Iranians have already let several ships through, it can't be an enormous number. And if this decoy tanker filled with weapons and water is preceded by some minesweepers, the odds could be good of creating a channel for the rest of the convoy to move through. Once through the Strait, if the modern Q-ship is indeed heavily damaged, it can always be abandoned in deep water. As for where to get this decoy tanker? Haven't we already seized 10 of them from the Shadow Fleet? I would certainly rely on the expertise of people like Sal and John who have way more experience and knowledge as to whether or not this is even feasible. It's a gamble, to be sure, but maybe it could also work. @johnkonrad @mercoglianos This photo is of the USS Big Horn refitted as a Q-ship at the Boston Navy Yard. It is shown with expandable living quarters amidships and on the poop deck and some considered the modifications to be a betrayal of the ship’s true purpose.

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John Ʌ Konrad V
John Ʌ Konrad V@johnkonrad·
They’re hitting land targets and some air assets. Naval assets? None. Yet the “Smartest Men in the Room™” spent years telling me drones made ships obsolete. So how many ships did the Houthis sink with thousands of anti-ship drones and missiles? One. How many has Iran sunk in this war? Zero. Yes, they damaged a few commercial ships. But only one was sunk by stand-off weapons alone. The others were boarded and scuttled later. P.S. the one, MV Ruby Mar, was drifting for 13 days before she finally sunk.
Kelly Grieco@ka_grieco

Look at what Iran has been hitting since Feb. 28: radar systems, SATCOM terminals, tankers, and now an AWACS. That's not random. It's a systematic attack on the infrastructure that makes U.S. air power function. Iran's running an asymmetric counter-air campaign. A 🧵.

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Stephen
Stephen@StephenJBeynon·
@fergustp @Willard1951 @xiaowang1984 Yes. The wind farms online at the moment are at relatively high rates. Several AR4 wind farms are due to come online in the next 12-18 months. They will look like a bit of a bargain.
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Thomas Ferguson
Thomas Ferguson@fergustp·
@StephenJBeynon @Willard1951 @xiaowang1984 But it’s not the average is £2.6billion a year more expensive last year it took record gas prices and a war for CFD’s to pay back over a year what we pay out some months now, even this month with a war & high gas prices looks like a record March for CFD subsidies
Thomas Ferguson tweet media
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Stephen
Stephen@StephenJBeynon·
@fergustp @Willard1951 @xiaowang1984 If the market rate at 6 pm is far higher than the CFD and the market rate at 6 am is far lower then these cancel out. So there is no subsidy if the average market rate happens to match the CFD rate.
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Thomas Ferguson
Thomas Ferguson@fergustp·
@StephenJBeynon @Willard1951 @xiaowang1984 They can sell it at market rate but the consumer ends up topping the payments up it means there’s no cheap supply for those batteries, the nonsense 2-6p EV tariffs are a classic example, they are just being subsidised by other bill payers the bill is still being paid at CFD price
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Stephen
Stephen@StephenJBeynon·
@fergustp @Willard1951 @xiaowang1984 Consumers buy cars because they need transportation. That requirement does not change so no extra cost to the consumer. CFD producers sell at the market rate at the time of generation. They either get a top-up or pay back the excess to make their average price match the CFD rate.
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Thomas Ferguson
Thomas Ferguson@fergustp·
@StephenJBeynon @Willard1951 @xiaowang1984 They’ll be at large cost to the consumer, batteries will be charged with renewables at significant cost, you’ve then of course got losses in charging/discharging, capital cost & profit to add on. CFD producers don’t offer discounts
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Stephen
Stephen@StephenJBeynon·
@fergustp @Willard1951 @xiaowang1984 Most of the batteries in the UK will be at zero cost to the electricity industry 🚗. We will indeed need to run gas stations fairly frequently at first but it will be increasingly rare as battery capacity, renewable generation, and interconnector capacity improve.
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Thomas Ferguson
Thomas Ferguson@fergustp·
@Willard1951 @xiaowang1984 And in the U.K. batteries would be an additional cost, if wind is available to run they get paid whether needed or not, same for solar you might displace some gas but you’ll need to pay gas to run on idle via the capacity market since we get week long Dunkelflautes
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Stephen
Stephen@StephenJBeynon·
@rec777777 I guess you had to rush this out before the post Trump attacking Iran effect starts to hit the sales figures.
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Stephen
Stephen@StephenJBeynon·
@TrentTelenko Maybe you could do a thread on how the Strait of Hormuz could be reopened. I have not seen anyone propose a realistic plan yet.
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Stephen
Stephen@StephenJBeynon·
@BazG51655 @neso_energy We already built the backup. It is kind of expensive to run though as gas is expensive so we should build more wind and solar to save on gas.
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Baz G
Baz G@BazG51655·
@neso_energy All it needs now is to be backed up by a dependable on tap power supply source. you know for when the wind doesn't blow or it blows too hard.
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National Energy System Operator
On 25 March at 1:30pm, wind generated 23,880MW of electricity to set a new maximum wind generation record. 🥇At the time, wind was providing 60% of Great Britain’s electricity, that’s enough to power over 23 million homes. 🏠 Download the NESO app: bit.ly/4sKMXU8
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Stephen
Stephen@StephenJBeynon·
@yeshuaisking_ @ToryFibs You want to see a future prosecution of the suspects fail ? Why would you want them to get away with it ?
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Sheik Valentino
Sheik Valentino@yeshuaisking_·
@ToryFibs It was the worst antisemitic attack in such a long time. I demand to see the perpetrators faces and names, right now
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Stephen
Stephen@StephenJBeynon·
@jponeil28921657 @colinwalker79 Did you not notice all new cars have had to be fitted with eCall connectivity since 2018 if you think this can disable your car then buying a new fossil burner will not save you.
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James O'Neill
James O'Neill@jponeil28921657·
@colinwalker79 They are all geo fenced so can be remotely switched off, how do people charge them living in the thousands of terraced houses or multi storey apartments in this country
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Colin Walker
Colin Walker@colinwalker79·
"Electric car interest jumps as fuel prices soar" "Renault has revealed a sharp increase in interest...enquiries are up 24 per cent since the start of the Middle East conflict on 28 February" independent.co.uk/cars/electric-…
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Stephen
Stephen@StephenJBeynon·
@colin24_7 @KateFantom Even when more renewables we will need gas as an occasional backup for years. The trick is not to need it on sunny and windy days. We can produce enough gas for dull windless days without being held to ransom every few years when there is a war involving a major gas producer.
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Col
Col@colin24_7·
@KateFantom What about today and tomorrow. We will rely on gas for a long time
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Kate, Florence and James
The gas we may need tomorrow, has not been burnt today because of renewable energy. We have over 160GW of BESS approved and these interconnectors being built. This will reduce our use of volition fossil fuels further.
Kate, Florence and James tweet mediaKate, Florence and James tweet media
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Kate, Florence and James
Kate, Florence and James@KateFantom·
If you drive an EV or you’re thinking about it, @OctopusEnergy has just lowered their prices even further. It’s going from ridiculously cheap to barbarically cheap to charge using an overnight tariff. This is effectively 1-1.5p a mile. With spiralling fuel costs there’s never been a better time. For us vs a diesel, travelling 50k annually, we will save £6,500 a year in fuel alone.
Kate, Florence and James tweet media
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