Stephen Vick

4PM Update: My thoughts regarding Monday are still on track based on latest 18z NAM 3km (pics below) @NWSSPC #kswx #mowx #newx #kcwx #SevereWx Read full thread below: x.com/i/status/20556…

GFS shows something in between the two, very potent environment along the dryline if storms can form

Nebraska LP Hailer at Sunset. What a day.

|12z NAM 3km STP // Monday| Latest 12z NAM 3km STP is showing a 30-50 mile expansion east of current cig 2 outline for Monday. I suspected this trend. I'll post my full graphic thoughts at Noon & 4pm CT. @NWSSPC @dalesamsWx #SevereWx

One year ago today! One of the biggest severe weather outbreaks of 2025: The Entire May 16th, 2025 Tornado Outbreak | Vlog #63 youtu.be/W2I9AqwdVFA?si… via @YouTube

LINK: youtube.com/watch?v=Gh4vnn… Forecast discussion on the continuing sequence of significant severe weather today through Tuesday, with the highest ceiling days being Sunday and Monday. Multiple rounds of intense severe storms with a risk for all severe hazards, including strong tornadoes, are possible over the next few days in the central US.

For the first time in SPC history, we have a "CIG 2" risk of severe weather on a Day 3 outlook... This is driven by the risk of intense (EF-3+) tornadoes and giant hail (2-4" in diameter). This new CIG 1-3 outlook style was introduced in March 2026.

Tuesday and Wednesday slight risk. Wednesday was actually just added for the Day 5. Just keeping this train going. Chances will be less Thursday onward but I think the cold front will still push some severe days in Dixie Alley before Plains/Midwest BIG resurgence Sat-next week.

Well well there we go for Monday. I wasn't expecting the Day 3 MDT. I mean you know how rare that is to even see? But SPC have pushed now Cig 2s out and we likely will see that be for intense tornadoes and hail into Monday Evening. Volatile environment this is shaping to be.

Alright well, there is your Sunday and no surprise in the slightest it's a 10% tornado risk and big hail too with the expected large supercells some models been hinting. This still has regional tornado outbreak on it. My question going forward, do we see the Cig 2 come out.

Monsoon-like lightning tonight in Norman, OK

New CSU severe probs really tamp down the idea of a severe weather outbreak Monday. Not surprised after seeing the 0Z GFS Shows a typical enhanced risk day

Fort Worth, Texas USA May 15, 2026 @ 7:29 PM

Some of my thoughts on Monday based on ensemble guidance. From a chasing perspective, I would favor the eastern half of Kansas. From a pure severe probability perspective, widespread severe storms appear probable along the cold front in parts of the Midwest.

@MeetJess @kristinaEBP

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Elevated threat of tornadoes detected for Monday, May 18th, 2026. See attached map for details. This forecast initialized on Friday afternoon. Follow for future forecast updates.

Fort Worth, Texas USA May 15, 2026 @ 8:09 PM

Fort Worth, Texas USA May 15, 2026 @ 7:48 PM

Fort Worth, Texas USA May 15, 2026 @ 7:29 PM

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