Stephen Rodio
16.9K posts
@SteveRodio
Husband, dad, lawyer, veteran. Former prosecutor, Hill staffer, proud liberal. Fight like hell for democracy. Big uranium fan, but NOT a finance professional
@robbo_83 Agree. But in hindsight, $CCO overperformed mostly due to its #nuclear tech new found identity post merger, not so much because of #uranium. We yet to have a uranium only bull.
@ABongo888 If you don't have the stomach for the miners' wild price gyrations, $SPUT $U.UN $SRUUF is low volatility choice with an unbelievably favorable risk to reward ratio. It's almost like a Money Market Deposit with the potential for a double or more. No-brainer #uranium play
Kazatomprom’s 2026 Outlook: The "Saudi Arabia of Uranium" is officially nursing a sulfuric acid hangover. #uranium $KAP just dropped their full-year 2025 numbers alongside their 2026 guidance. If you’re playing the nuclear renaissance, pour yourself a strong cup of coffee. The structural supply deficit just got a massive, heavily audited reality check. Here’s why the global cost curve is violently shifting to the right: 🚰 1. The Tap is Jammed KAP slashed their 2026 production target by roughly 10%, guiding for 27,500 to 29,000 tU. The culprit? Our old nemesis, the sulfuric acid shortage. It turns out you can’t just spreadsheet in-situ recovery mining into existence. The world’s dominant producer is flat-out telling the market that ramping up operations is way harder than it looks on paper. 📈 2. The Floor is Rising This is the most critical takeaway for the entire sector. KAP’s All-In Sustaining Costs (AISC) are forecasted to spike 21% year-over-year in 2026, hitting $35.00–$36.50/lb. Between the new, differentiated Mineral Extraction Tax (MET) and sticky supply chain inflation, the era of cheap, sub-$20 uranium belongs in a museum. The real implication: If the absolute lowest-cost producer on earth is watching their expenses balloon, what is the true incentive price needed for Western developers to actually break ground? (Hint: The spot price needs to go much, much higher). ☢️ 3. Utilities Are Finally Waking Up Management explicitly called out that major consumers are now "prioritizing physical availability over short-term price concerns," locking in contracts deep into the next decade. Utility buyers are finally figuring out that securing actual, physical pounds to keep the grid running beats haggling over a few dollars on the spot market. 🦉The macro thes is a structural supply bottleneck, a rising global cost floor, and utility buyers shifting from total complacency to action remains rock solid. Western producers and near-term developers should be sending KAP's management an edible arrangement today. The premium on reliable, geopolitically secure pounds just got a lot higher. Stay focused, manage your risk, and respect the math. ⚛️👇
Kazatomprom’s 2026 Outlook: The "Saudi Arabia of Uranium" is officially nursing a sulfuric acid hangover. #uranium $KAP just dropped their full-year 2025 numbers alongside their 2026 guidance. If you’re playing the nuclear renaissance, pour yourself a strong cup of coffee. The structural supply deficit just got a massive, heavily audited reality check. Here’s why the global cost curve is violently shifting to the right: 🚰 1. The Tap is Jammed KAP slashed their 2026 production target by roughly 10%, guiding for 27,500 to 29,000 tU. The culprit? Our old nemesis, the sulfuric acid shortage. It turns out you can’t just spreadsheet in-situ recovery mining into existence. The world’s dominant producer is flat-out telling the market that ramping up operations is way harder than it looks on paper. 📈 2. The Floor is Rising This is the most critical takeaway for the entire sector. KAP’s All-In Sustaining Costs (AISC) are forecasted to spike 21% year-over-year in 2026, hitting $35.00–$36.50/lb. Between the new, differentiated Mineral Extraction Tax (MET) and sticky supply chain inflation, the era of cheap, sub-$20 uranium belongs in a museum. The real implication: If the absolute lowest-cost producer on earth is watching their expenses balloon, what is the true incentive price needed for Western developers to actually break ground? (Hint: The spot price needs to go much, much higher). ☢️ 3. Utilities Are Finally Waking Up Management explicitly called out that major consumers are now "prioritizing physical availability over short-term price concerns," locking in contracts deep into the next decade. Utility buyers are finally figuring out that securing actual, physical pounds to keep the grid running beats haggling over a few dollars on the spot market. 🦉The macro thes is a structural supply bottleneck, a rising global cost floor, and utility buyers shifting from total complacency to action remains rock solid. Western producers and near-term developers should be sending KAP's management an edible arrangement today. The premium on reliable, geopolitically secure pounds just got a lot higher. Stay focused, manage your risk, and respect the math. ⚛️👇
Everyone's focused on oil right now. And I get it. Brent above $100, the Strait of Hormuz shut down, tankers stranded. But there's an energy crisis hiding in plain sight that could be even MORE consequential: Uranium. Here are the numbers you should know: Global uranium demand is roughly 90,000 tons per year. Global production is 60,000 tons. That's a 30,000-ton annual DEFICIT. So how has the market survived so far? Utilities have been burning through their inventories. After Fukushima, Japan shut its reactors. Sweden pulled back. Germany closed its fleet entirely. Those utilities had 12 to 15 years of uranium stockpiled. Today, the average inventory level is just TWO YEARS. The cushion is gone. And demand is about to explode. There are roughly 200 new reactors planned globally by 2040. Each reactor consumes about 160 tons of raw uranium per year. That's 32,000 tons of additional annual demand. Half of one year's current production. Just from new reactors. And where does the supply come from? Well... it doesn't. Kazakhstan produces 45% of the world's uranium. Starting in 2028, Kazakhstan plans to dedicate 100% of its supply to China and Russia. Already 80% goes to those two countries. But that remaining 20% disappearing from the open market will tighten an already desperate situation. There aren't enough new mine projects to fill the gap. Mining is hard. Permitting takes years. And the world hasn't invested seriously in new uranium production for over a decade. But here's the part that's REALLY scary: Enriched uranium. Raw uranium is useless for a reactor. It has to be enriched. And 60% of the world's enrichment capacity sits in Russia. If Putin decided to embargo enriched uranium exports, it would be devastating for Western utilities. And strategically, it would cost Russia almost nothing. Russia's enrichment business generates roughly $6 billion a year. That's what Russia earns from ONE WEEK of oil sales. Why Putin hasn't pulled this lever yet is a mystery. But the vulnerability is real and every Western utility executive knows it. This is why we're bullish on uranium. Uranium spot prices are around $87 per pound. $200 per pound by 2027 or 2028 is entirely achievable given the supply-demand math. The oil trade gets the headlines. But people overlook uranium. A 30,000-ton annual deficit. Utility inventories at two years. Kazakhstan redirecting supply to China. Russia controlling 60% of enrichment. And 200 new reactors coming online. THE MATH DOESN'T LIE
🚨BREAKING EXCLUSIVE: MAGA billionaire donors are about to MELT DOWN as Senator Mark Kelly unveils a plan to ELIMINATE federal income tax for Americans earning under $46,000 - and slash taxes up to $161,000. And here’s what rich Republican donors don’t want you to see: It’s fully paid for by people making over $1 million a year. Not working families. Not the middle class. The millionaires and billionaires sitting on more wealth than they could ever spend. Kelly laid it out to CTA Media Network’s Joe Gallina: "billionaires…have more money than they… can spend in multiple lifetimes while we have people (who) can't afford a place to live and can't send their kids to college and never go on vacation. It’s just not right.” This isn’t a tweak. This game-changing bill takes a sledgehammer to a broken system - and forces a reckoning with the affordability crisis Donald Trump made worse.
Let me get this straight. The federal government held a legal auction for the right to build offshore wind farms. A company won those auctions fair and square, paying nearly a billion dollars into the U.S. Treasury. The projects went through years of review. Courts repeatedly upheld their legality. Everything was above board. Then the Trump administration tried five separate times to kill other wind projects in federal court and lost every single time. Judges reviewed the administration’s supposed “national security” justification and weren’t persuaded. So now they’ve landed on a new plan: pay the company nearly ONE BILLION DOLLARS of your tax money to just walk away. Because, and I am not making this up, the president thinks offshore wind turbines are ugly and claims without evidence that they “drive whales crazy.” He’s been nursing this petty grudge since 2012, when he tried to block a wind farm visible from his golf course in Scotland. Fourteen years later, American taxpayers are footing the bill for it. This is stupid policy. It’s fiscally reckless, strategically blind, and driven entirely by a personal vendetta rather than any coherent vision for American energy or competitiveness. Meanwhile, China is racing ahead, building offshore wind at a staggering pace and positioning itself to dominate the global clean energy economy for decades to come. None of this is America First. nytimes.com/2026/03/17/cli…
