Strat58 cat

.@SecRubio: "The deal with Lebanon and Israel is unprecedented... This is the first time the Israelis and the Lebanese government have spoken, at the official level, in close to 30 years... and of course, as you announced last night, Mr. President, this disarmament deal that you brought about [on Hamas] is another big step as well. It's something a lot of people thought would never happen."

Peggy Noonan is very smart. wsj.com/opinion/anthon…

I always feel obliged to point out that Putin’s motivations, like those of every dictator, are based solely on staying in power. The long lists of Putin’s mistakes are usually about Russia, the nation, or the Russian people, which he cares nothing about. Is he still in power?

SIKORSKI: If Putin could escalate in a way that's not risky to himself, he would've done it over last 4 years. Nobody knows what political consequences in Russia would be of a draft. Russian Revolution in 1917 started when draftees started shooting their own officers rather than be killed immediately. And life expectancy of Russian soldier during offensive in Ukraine is about 30 minutes. So, I believe Putin is desperate and may do something risky, but risks for him are significant.

IRAN THINKS TRUMP WILL BLINK The IRGC believes it can threaten U.S. troops, choke the Strait of Hormuz and weaponize rising energy prices to force Washington into a deal before the midterms. Dr. Eric Mandel of @MepinOrg warns that every pause reinforces Tehran’s belief that it is winning. His prescription: reopen Hormuz by force, rally U.S. allies and support the Iranian people. Otherwise, Iran survives, China takes notes and American deterrence collapses.

“I specialize in turning the impossible to just late.” — Elon Musk

Netanyahu: After this war is over, I don't think the Straits are going to be that powerful a leverage, because people will move the energy pipelines out of the Straits to the Red Sea, from there to Israel and the Mediterranean. We can unblock this choke point, and we will.

Without question, the biggest strategic blunder of the 21st century was Putin's illegal invasion of Ukraine. The consequences have been staggering: - Over 1 million Russian casualties. - NATO is larger, more united, and more relevant than at any point in its history. - Russia has more than doubled its border with NATO. - Russia exposed the weaknesses of its military, failing to seize Ukraine in 2022, repeatedly revising its war aims, and becoming dependent on Iran and North Korea for weapons, ammunition, and even troops. - Putin didn't destroy Ukrainian identity. He reinforced it, forged it under fire, and revealed it to the world. He helped create a durable Ukrainian national identity that will endure for generations. - Russia transformed from an energy superpower with diversified, premium European markets into a supplier increasingly dependent on discounted sales to China. Few strategic decisions in modern history have produced so many outcomes directly contrary to the aggressor's objectives.

The attention economy, circa 1835. open.substack.com/pub/sluttyprim…

.@POTUS on Iran: "We're going to be hitting them very hard... We had five rockets shot going 8,500 mph, and all five rockets were knocked down to the ground — but they nevertheless took a shot, so it's our turn."

@elonmusk Fish it out sahib

The ship landing was precise, meaning that it would have been caught by the tower arms

@elonmusk Why ain't y'all fished it out mmsaheb

Starship still floating in the ocean

Amanda Knox on Club Random with Bill Maher, just gabbing explained the essential threat of AI. AI is inherently psychopathic, since it lacks empathy and essentially common human qualities such as kinship and connection. She's very bright.

Watching Amanda Knox on Bill Maher's Club Random: wow she's such a great, people pleasing, slightly nerdy, ultra brainy American woman. How they hated her.

Much news coverage now overlooks the effect of the US blockade. The regime may be able to withstand the bombing, but it must have revenue.

Petraeus: The death zone in Ukraine extends 35 kilometers on either side of the front lines — defined by drone battery life. Tanks can't survive. Armored vehicles can't survive. Nothing can. Neither side even drives vehicles anymore. Russians keep trying and keep proving it. Petraeus: No trenches — drones fly through. Soldiers in survivability positions hundreds of meters apart, not mutually supporting. Resupplied by ground robots. Commanders can't visit the front line. Soldiers stay 60+ days. In urban areas, some couldn't be extracted for months. Petraeus: Russian advances mean individual soldiers running forward trying to dig in. Drone units pick them up immediately, cycle surveillance drones, then FPV attack drones arrive. You see them hitting around the soldier in the woods until one connects. It doesn't end well. Petraeus: Ukraine is about to isolate Crimea. Gasoline so short they won't sell it to civilians. Tourists who came for beaches are trying to get home any way they can. Kerch Bridge rail no longer works. Ferries knocked out. Land bridges destroyed. Pontoon bridges now targeted. Petraeus: Ukraine took down Russia's air defenses steadily. Russia pulls them to Moscow — vulnerabilities open everywhere else. Moscow refinery hit three nights running, out at least six months. They're going after fuel storage, refineries, gas lines from Siberia to the west. Petraeus: Real prospect now that Putin might need a cessation of hostilities himself. Oil sanctions reimposed, national welfare fund running out of money. Crimea isolated, front lines cut off, economy crushed — all of this could force Putin to recognize he should end this war. Source: text of Tymofiy Milovanov

At 5:45 p.m. ET today, Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps forces launched multiple ballistic missiles from Iran in an attempted surprise attack on U.S. forces based in the Middle East. All Iranian missiles were successfully intercepted. U.S. forces remain vigilant and at a high state of readiness.

"They'll never have a nuclear weapon. They understand that. We have had some very good talks," says @POTUS on Iran. "Very interesting, with Lindsey [Graham], he was very much a hawk, as you would say, on Iran, and over the last few weeks, I would say that he became like, 'It's better making a deal in this case than just destroying the rest of the country.'"

Trump has come to admire Ukraine’s drone industry, especially its ability to defend against the same drones the U.S. faces in the Iran war, according to people who've spoken to him. The president likes winners—and Zelensky is increasingly looking like one. on.wsj.com/4x6AWdt